Is a U.S. Recession Indisputable ?

“There have been a few calls as of late (Hussman, ECRI, Shilling) stating that we are currently in the next recession.  Then there is everyone else.  While the “optimistic” outlook is always more enjoyable to listen to – the problem is that the current “no recession” view is primarily predicated on current quarter growth rates looked at in isolation.  These data points are then extrapolated into continuous future economic expansion.  For example, in the 2013 CBO Budget the average economic growth rate used is 5.28% which is substantially higher than the 2% growth rate currently projected by the Federal Reserve.  More importantly, neither the Fed, or the CBO, have forecasted a recession in future years.  All assumptions are based on the expectations that somehow recessions have been repealed.  This is hardly the case.

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