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Monthly Archives: July 2012

Small Community Banks Find a Tough Time Bridging the Loan Gap

“(Reuters) – Union County Savings Bank in Elizabeth, New Jersey, is profitable with few problem loans and a capital ratio that would make a too-big-to-fail bank drool.

The community bank is also one of the most tight-fisted lenders in the country. The bank invests just 9 percent of its $1.3 billion in deposits in loans. It pours most of the rest into an investment portfolio. That loan-to-deposit ratio puts it near the bottom of 6,000 U.S. community banks, according to a Reuters analysis.

Community banks are often seen as kinder, gentler versions of their big-bank brethren. The Occupy Wall Street movement accused big banks of being greedy and encouraged depositors to move funds to their local community banks.”

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Obama Will Try for a One Year Extension of the Bush Tax Cuts

“(Reuters) – President Barack Obama will call for a one-year extension of Bush-era tax cuts for families earning less than $250,000 a year, according to a White House official, seeking to spare the economy the impact of taxes going up on January 1.

Obama, a Democrat, will make the request in a 11:50 a.m. statement at the White House on Monday.

Republicans in Congress are unlikely to be swayed, as they have consistently argued that the Bush tax cuts should be extended for everyone, including higher earners.”

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YARDENI: The Outlook For US Jobs Is Not As Bad As You Think

“The latest US employment indicators weren’t all as bad as the official report released on Friday.
The unseasonably warm weather earlier this year undoubtedly boosted payrolls during Q1, when they rose by 225,670 per month on average. That probably contributed to the slowdown during Q2 to 75,000 per month on average.”

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OECD Sees Continued Slowing in China and India

“PARIS (Reuters) – China and India have entered more marked economic slowdowns while growth continues to moderate in most major industrial economies, the OECD said on Monday.

The Paris-based economic think-tank said its composite leading indicator for China, which provides a measure of future economic activity, eased to 99.2 in May from 99.4 in April, slipping further away from the long-term average of 100.

For India, the indicator fell to 97.8 from 98.0, also below the long-term average of 100.

“Composite leading indicators … point to an easing of economic activity in most major OECD economies and a more marked slowdown in most major non-OECD economies,” the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.”

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Gapping Up and Down This Morning

Gapping up

FX +19.7%, FHCO +1.7%, NSPH +6.6%, TC +3.3% , APC +0.9%, WFR +1.5%,

TXT +2.4%, SIRI +4.9%,  YOKU +3.5%, GP +39.3%, WLP +1.8%,  HGSI +3.5%,

ARNA +2.1% ,

Gapping down

CEL -7.2%, SAN -4.4%, BBVA -3.8%, SPNS -3.6%, NOK -3.1%, TOT -1.3%, MT -1.1%,

TSN -0.5%, V -2.1%, MA -2% , ADM -0.6%, BCS -0.9%, NOK -3.1%,  LNKD -2.9% ,

TOT -1.3%, RDS.A -0.9%, SDRL -0.7%, BP -0.6%,  HIMX -8.6%, ATR -2.0%,

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Today’s Rumor Mill

“Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) will face shareholder suits as it delayed products. (NYT)

Boeing (NYSE: BA) won a 100 737 purchase from a lending unit at GE and expects another large one from SAS(Bloomberg)”

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ROUBINI: Next Year Could Be A Global Perfect Storm—Much Worse Than 2008

“NYU Professor Nouriel Roubini is in Aix-en-Provence.

But the French countryside hasn’t cheered him up any.

In fact, in a new video interview with Bloomberg’s Caroline Connan, Professor Roubini has outdone himself, issuing a forecast so apocalyptic that even devout Roubini-ites will be startled by its pessimism.”

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Alcoa Profit Seen Plunging 81% In Eighth Year Of Surplus

Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, may report an 81 percent decline in second-quarter earnings as the eighth straight year of surplus global production drives down the price of the metal.

Profit excluding one-time items will be 6 cents a share, according to the average of 19 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Analysts have lowered their projections by 48 percent in the past 30 days as aluminum traded near a two-year low on the London Metal Exchange.”

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WellPoint To Buy Amerigroup For $4.9 Billion In Cash

WellPoint Inc. (WLP), the second-biggest U.S. health plan, agreed to buy Amerigroup Corp. (AGP) for $4.9 billion in cash to expand in managed care for patients in the Medicare and Medicaid programs.

Amerigroup stockholders will receive $92 a share, the companies said in a statement today. The price is 43 percent above the closing level of Amerigroup in New York trading on July 6. Indianapolis-based WellPoint rose 2.1 percent to $61.18 at 7:23 a.m. New York time.”

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Spanish Yields Remain Above 7%

“Spain’s 10-year debt yield climbed above 7 percent and stocks fell as European finance ministers prepared to meet to hammer out a rescue plan for banks. U.S. equity-index futures slid before Alcoa (AA) Inc. reports earnings.

The yield on Spain’s 10-year bond jumped 11 basis points to 7.07 percent at 7:20 a.m. in New York, and the German two-year note yields were below zero for the second day. The euro was little changed at $1.2296, after sliding to $1.2251, the weakest since July 2010. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.4 percent and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures retreated 0.5 percent. Corn rose 3.9 percent and oil gained 0.8 percent.”

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France Experiences Safe Haven Inflows Taking Down Yields

“A few days ago, France was paying close to 0.6% to borrow money for 2 years.

Today: 0.17%.

As borrowing costs have re-surged in Spain and Italy, France is seeing major safe-haven flows, the likes of which you normally associate with Germany.

German 2-year yields are already slightly negative, and at this rate, French borrowing costs will be negative soon.

On the surface, this is a bit of a head-scratcher, given the widespread view that new President Francois Hollande is a spend-happy socialist who is doubling down on bad historical fiscal practices.”

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Oil Spikes on Potential Norwegian Labor Strikes

“Oil rebounded in New York after the biggest drop in two weeks as a labor strike threatened to halt production in Norway, Western Europe’s biggest exporter.

Futures advanced as much as 0.9 percent. Statoil ASA (STL) said it may declare force majeure on fuel deliveries as it prepares to halt more offshore fields at midnight. Prices slid 3.2 percent on July 6, the biggest decline in two weeks, after a report showed the U.S. created fewer jobs than estimated in June. Iraq’s Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs Hussain al-Shahristani said oil’s two-month plunge is unjustified. European Union sanctions on Iranian imports took effect at the start of this month.”

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Most-Accurate Forecasters On Euro Clash With Options Sign

“The world’s most-accurate foreign- exchange strategists say the worst is over for the euro this year, putting them at odds with traders who see more pain as the region’s economy shrinks and the sovereign debt crisis deepens.

Led by Wells Fargo & Co. and Westpac Banking Corp. — which correctly called the euro’s weakness last quarter — the five best firms as measured by Bloomberg expect Europe’s 17-nation common currency to end the year at about $1.26, up from $1.2289 as of 11:01 a.m.London time. That’s above the $1.24 median estimate in a survey of 55 strategists by Bloomberg News.”

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