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Monthly Archives: May 2012

French and Austrian Bonds Leap as Safe Heaven Bets Look to Diversify Beyond Germany

“French bonds rose, sending five-year yields to a record low, and Austrian debt gained as investors favored higher-yielding alternatives to German securities amid the deepening euro-area sovereign debt crisis.

Austria’s five-year note yields dropped to an all-time low after a European Union summit ended with leaders divided over joint debt sales and offering no relief for Spain. AAA rated countries said joint borrowing would force up their own interest rates and give deficit-prone states an incentive to continue spending. Germany’s bonds erased gains that had pushed 10-year yields to a new low after business confidence fell more than analysts forecast in May.”

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Marc Cuban: The Facebook IPO Post Mortem- $FB

1. Say goodbye to the individual investor on Wall Street. Whatever positive impression they had of the IPO market and the stock market in general was just torched to the ground. When everyone you know associated with the stock market is telling you and the media is confirming that this could be a huge IPO that will make money for those lucky enough to get shares and the opposite happens, goodnight. All confidence in the stock is destroyed. Put your money in the bank or if you want to gamble, at least slot machines in Vegas pay out 98pct.

2. The Valuation Bubble in Silicon Valley is bursting – but not for the reasons you think. Historically IPOs function as a means of getting stock to outsiders. People who were not sold/assigned/granted shares could only buy shares once they reached the public markets. The new secondary markets in private shares changed that. They allowed outsiders to purchase shares in a market with very little liquidity.

The demand for shares outstripped the supply and you know what happens when demand outstrips supply ? The price goes up. So shares of FB on secondary market went up and up and up. (Just as LinkedIn had done before them, but it greater volumes) When it was time to go public the IPO had to be priced higher than the prevailing share price on the secondary market.

To make matters worse, those folks who bought shares in the secondary private market, driving up the share price now had the shares they wanted to buy , so they were no longer going to be the buyers the IPO counted on to eat up shares in the open market.

Can you imagine how pissed you would be if you bought a boatload of Facebook thinking you got in at a better than IPO price only to watch the price on the open market post IPO drop below the price you paid in the private market ? Ouch.

The law of unintended consequences is that the dynamics for how private companies are valued and are able to raise Pre IPO rounds could quickly change if the prices and volumes on SecondMarket and its competitors declined significantly.

3. I always laugh at all the pundits /analysts who try to tell you what any non dividend paying stock is worth. Its a function of supply and demand. Its never fundamentals. Read what I wrote a long time ago about the stock market. In the case of facebook they put an ENORMOUS number of shares into the market. Too much supply. Valuation has no relevance what so ever. Conventional wisdom says the buyers of stocks will try to determine the value of a stock before they buy or sell and make the appropriate rational decision. Not even in a Richie Rich cartoon does that happen.

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NOTE: Marc is long 150,000 FB at around $32.

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The New Face of Anarchy is Coming

That face is young, sometimes dumb, but most certainly unemployed. With nothing to do why not tea party or #OWS.

Patience will wear thin as growth can not be had by papering over problems. This will also hurt the previous generation as they try to help their kids with what financial means they have saved for retirement.

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ATTENTION: Taking Calcium Pills Increases Chance of Heart Attack by 86%!

The study of approximately 24,000 people between the ages of 35 and 64 found participants who took regular calcium supplements were 86% more likely to have a heart attack than those who didn’t take supplements. Those who took only calcium supplements were twice as likely to suffer a heart attack as those who didn’t take any vitamin supplements. Calcium supplements have been linked to kidney stones and bloating in other studies, according to the National Institutes of Health.

“Calcium supplements have been widely embraced by doctors and the public, on the grounds that they are a natural and therefore safe way of preventing osteoporatic fractures,” the authors write. “We should return to seeing calcium as an important component of a balanced diet.”

The study, primarily undertaken to determine if calcium supplements modify cardiovascular risk factors, found no direct link between the supplements and heart attacks, nor did they identify brands of supplements. Participants answered questions about their use of supplements and their diet during an 11-year study of their health.

The study did not look at what caused the heart attacks, but the authors write: “Supplements cause calcium levels to soar above the normal range, and it is this flooding effect which might ultimately be harmful.”

“Doctors who work with the elderly and people who are postmenopausal routinely tell them to take a calcium supplement,” says Linda Russell, a rheumatologist and osteoporosis specialist at Hospital for Special Surgery in New York. “It’s really time to re-examine that philosophy. Other studies about calcium have been suggesting this in recent years, but maybe this study really should get doctors to rethink this approach.”

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When Lobbyists, Special Interests, and Superpacs Fund the Same Politicians You Get The Same Shit

Tag me how you like, but if you think there is a difference between politicians starting from Nixon till now you are sorely mistaken. Sure each politician have their agendas and nuances, but in the end when they are constantly funded by the same folks you end up with an ongoing policy that ebbs and flows in one direction.

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