Chart Porn on Taxmageddon

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This weekend, NYT’s David Leonhardt coined the term ‘Taxmageddon’ to describe the huge tax hikes that are coming at the end of 2012 if Congress does nothing.

It sounds like that term is going to stick. It’s being used on a Mitt Romney call with reporters today.

So how big of a deal is the expiration of all these tax cuts?

This chart from Strategas Research, posted by Jim Pethokoukis, puts the hikes into some very helpful context.

The potential fiscal drag is 3.5% of GDP, vastly more than any other previous tax hike, and bigger than the last 6 combined.

 

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-the-size-of-the-coming-tax-hikes-in-context-2012-4#ixzz1sDM4kvjl

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[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lWJXDG2i0A&ob=av2e 450 300]

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NYSE

New Highs 28 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      HIGH                VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Alamo Grp                     ALG         31.66                1,813 
Amer Intl Grp Inc. Wt         AIG/WS      12.35               19,730 
Annie's Inc.                  BNNY        45.00               60,107 
Bluegreen Corp                BXG         5.06                11,549 
Dick's Sporting Goods         DKS         50.00               68,213 
Embraer ADS                   ERJ         35.29               65,046 
Essex Property Trust          ESS         152.61               5,868 
Fidelity Ntl Financial        FNF         18.64              140,292 
Fst Niagara Finl Pfd B        FNFGpB      28.09                1,358 
Hlth Care REIT 6.50 Pfd J     HCNpJ       25.39                2,936 
Home Depot                    HD          51.80              923,254 
Hospitality Properties Tr     HPT         27.22               14,579 
KKR Finl 7.5% Notes 2042      KFI         25.52                3,393 
Lowe's Cos                    LOW         32.29            1,958,211 
Macerich                      MAC         58.70               17,444 
MarriottVacations             VAC         29.63               16,511 
PS Business Parks             PSB         66.81                3,386 
Primus Telecommunications     PTGI        17.89               97,309 
Sally Beauty Hldgs            SBH         25.85               45,237 
Schiff Nutrition Intl         WNI         13.45                5,938 
Sherwin-Williams              SHW         117.86              87,873 
Stewart Info Svcs             STC         15.35                4,034 
Taubman Ctrs                  TCO         74.20                7,352 
Tempur-Pedic                  TPX         87.27              111,909 
Terra Nitrogen                TNH         298.50              20,293 
Wstrn Asset Emerg Mkts        ESD         20.93               29,370 
Wstrn Asset Worldwide Inc     SBW         14.86                9,620 
Williams Cos                  WMB         32.52              253,165 

New Lows 13 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      LOW                 VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Cenveo                        CVO         2.53                53,028 
Chesapeake Energy             CHK         19.56            1,555,038 
DelhaizeGrp                   DEG         47.55                5,290 
Emergent Biosoltns            EBS         14.17                4,529 
Enerplus                      ERF         18.62              194,733 
Gafisa                        GFA         4.28               233,378 
Harmony Gold Mining           HMY         9.64               222,839 
Ivanhoe Mines                 IVN         12.06              804,522 
Nokia                         NOK         3.93             7,821,171 
Quicksilver Resources         KWK         4.02               328,275 
RPC Inc                       RES         8.88               107,342 
Standard Register             SR          0.90                 7,895 
Transalta Corp                TAC         17.08               19,112

NASDAQ

New Highs 33 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      HIGH                VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Acorn Energy                  ACFN        12.00               53,433 
Amer Cap Agency Pfd A         AGNCP       25.24               10,611 
Anika Therapeutics            ANIK        16.13               57,189 
Arc Wireless Solutions        ARCW        3.80                 5,550 
Bassett Furniture Inds        BSET        10.41               47,124 
Benihana                      BNHN        13.85                1,005 
Cynosure  (Cl A)              CYNO        19.97               18,513 
Discovery Comm C              DISCK       48.52               15,828 
Erickson Air-Crane            EAC         8.50                11,538 
Flexsteel Industries          FLXS        19.21                3,911 
Fonar Corp                    FONR        4.25               147,797 
Infinity Pharmaceuticals      INFI        13.18                2,051 
IntegraMed America            INMD        13.22                  837 
Intel                         INTC        28.55            3,824,155 
Key Tronic                    KTCC        11.69               19,581 
Liquidity Services            LQDT        52.26               23,243 
Mantex Intl                   MNTX        8.96                33,452 
Mattress Firm Holding         MFRM        46.17                3,241 
PDF Solutions                 PDFS        8.69                 2,902 
Pacer Intl                    PACR        6.95                 7,931 
Pozen                         POZN        7.40               119,224 
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals     REGN        124.50              25,652 
Retalix                       RTLX        20.94               15,190 
SBA Comm                      SBAC        52.75               88,925 
SLM CPI-Lnkd Md Trm Nts A     OSM         23.72                3,876 
SXC Health Solutions          SXCI        79.88               36,059 
SeagateTech                   STX         29.00            3,955,748 
Select Comfort                SCSS        35.00              123,863 
Spirit Airlines               SAVE        21.99               33,150 
Starbucks                     SBUX        62.00              898,958 
Ulta Salon Cosmetics          ULTA        95.85               35,996 
VeriSign                      VRSN        40.99              101,420 
WisdomTree Emg Mkts Corp      EMCB        79.14                  670 

New Lows 15 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      LOW                 VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Alaska Comm Sys Grp           ALSK        2.54                27,410 
American Learning             ALRN        0.79                 5,464 
Cadence Pharmaceuticals       CADX        3.25                25,765 
ChinaNet Online Holdings      CNET        0.85                14,894 
Diamond Foods                 DMND        20.66               37,720 
Double Eagle Petroleum        DBLE        5.09                 3,300 
Education Management          EDMC        12.45               15,969 
NCI                           NCIT        6.06                11,558 
Origin Agritech               SEED        1.85                31,159 
Pan American Silver           PAAS        19.86              159,728 
Pendrell                      PCO         1.11             3,940,125 
Perfumania Holdings           PERF        9.00                   537 
SMF Energy                    FUEL        0.27               883,903 
WVS Fincl                     WVFC        7.16                   300 
Wave Systems  (Cl A)          WAVX        1.49                17,654

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 -CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
BAC        4/21/12           9.0000        3981            0.1500      up 0.0000 
C          4/21/12          35.0000        3684            0.3100      up 0.0400 
NVDA       6/16/12          17.0000        3608            0.2000      dn 0.0400 
AAPL       4/21/12         610.0000        2920            4.2100      dn 4.7900 
AAPL       4/21/12         600.0000        2498            7.2000      dn 7.0000 
T          4/21/12          31.0000        1949            0.0600      dn 0.0200 
AAPL       4/21/12         620.0000        1821            2.3600      dn 2.7400 
INTC       4/21/12          28.0000        1722            0.7300      up 0.1300 
RENN       4/21/12           7.0000        1229            0.5000      dn 0.0500 
AAPL       4/21/12         615.0000        1192            2.9800      dn 3.8500 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
AAPL       4/21/12         600.0000        2570           20.0000     up 11.2000 
AAPL       4/21/12         590.0000        2297           13.3500      up 7.8800 
AAPL       4/21/12         575.0000        2246            7.7500      up 5.1600 
AAPL       4/21/12         570.0000        1913            6.1000      up 4.0500 
BIDU       4/21/12         145.0000        1826            1.4300      up 0.6500 
AAPL       4/21/12         585.0000        1541           10.6100      up 6.3100 
AAPL       4/21/12         580.0000        1429            9.6500      up 6.3000 
AAPL       4/21/12         595.0000        1418           16.6000      up 9.6000 
JPM        4/21/12          45.0000        1311            1.5000      dn 0.4500 
JPM        4/21/12          43.0000        1220            0.3400      dn 0.2900 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
320210    342342        662552

-CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
BBY        6/16/12          26.0000         504            0.2800      dn 0.0400 
BBY        6/16/12          23.0000         504            0.9700      dn 0.1000 
BAC        4/21/12           9.0000         237            0.1500      up 0.0000 
AAPL       4/21/12         600.0000         181            7.4000      dn 6.7700 
USB        4/21/12          32.0000         153            0.1900      dn 0.0600 
EP         4/21/12          30.0000         150            0.2200      dn 0.0300 
GLD        4/21/12         162.0000         148            0.7900      dn 0.1900 
AAPL       4/21/12         610.0000         133            4.1500      dn 4.7800 
AAPL       4/21/12         595.0000         104            9.5500      dn 7.9100 
C          4/21/12          34.0000         101            0.7400      up 0.1500 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
AAPL       4/21/12         590.0000         183           13.2900      up 7.9900 
AAPL       4/21/12         595.0000         148           19.1000     up 12.0600 
NFLX       5/19/12         100.0000         103            7.5900      up 0.7400 
NFLX       5/19/12          80.0000         102            1.5500      dn 0.2700 
AAPL       4/21/12         550.0000          99            2.1000      up 1.3100 
POT        4/21/12          45.0000          86            2.5900      up 0.3100 
GLD        4/21/12         158.0000          86            0.3600      dn 0.1400 
AAPL       4/21/12         535.0000          85            1.0000      up 0.4500 
AAPL       5/19/12         555.0000          79           18.7200      up 6.2200 
GLD        4/21/12         157.0000          78            0.2800      up 0.0200 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
20353    18944        39297

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3D heat map

S&P A/D Line

NASDAQ A/D Line 

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Apple has expressed losses twice that of the markets over the past 2 weeks….

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Interesting to say the least.

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A soft bid to increase the size of an agency…who watches porn @ work?

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Powerful forces have lined up around the world….

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“NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — The private equity industry is on pace for a record year for sales and initial public offerings of its companies.

In the first quarter of 2012, private equity firms either sold or took public 112 companies, generating roughly $21 billion. That was the highest number of first quarter exits since 2007, according to private equity research firm PitchBook Data.

“What you’re seeing is the confluence of an improving economy, pretty strong debt markets and strong appetite among sellers and buyers,” said Gordon Pan, managing director at Baird Private Equity, which manages $3 billion.

Thanks to this year’s market rally, buyers and sellers appear confident about the pricing of deals. And banks are once again facilitating acquisitions by providing the debt financing….”

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“A proposal to impose at least 30 percent income tax on Americans making more than a million dollars a year will not hurt the economy by stifling investment and growth, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said.

The so-called Buffett rule, a tax plan proposed by President Barack Obama to reduce income inequality, has been vigorously criticized by Republicans who argue it will discourage people from starting new businesses as it will raise capital gains tax and taxes on investment.

“No credible basis for that argument, in my judgment,” Geithner said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

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Gapping up 

CSIQ +8.6%, YGE +7.6%, BP +1.3%, TOT +1.3%, ANR +2.5%, FCX +1.9%,  CAT +1.8% , WDR+0.7%,

FTK +2.2%, C +0.5%, DRJ +14.9% , CSIQ +18.5%, YGE +7.6%, JASO +6.7%, LDK +5%, STP +3.3%, FSLR +1.1%,

SDRL +1.4%, BP +1.3%, TOT +1.3%, ECYT +110.5%,  LVLT +2.9%, TXN +1%, GTLS +0.3%,  VRNG +23%,

Gapping down 

NOK -2.5%, SAP -2.2%, SLW -2.1%, RBS -2%, STD -1.6%, MAT -6.2%,  PCO -33.2%, FUEL -67.9%, DANG -4.6%

LYG -4.2%, RBS -2.5%, ING -2.1%, RBS -2%, STD -1.6%, BBVA -1.5%, HAS -2.8%, SCG -2.2%, INFY -1.3%,  CHK -1%,

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“Caterpillar Inc. (CAT US) gained 1.4 percent to $107.40. The world’s largest construction and mining-equipment maker was raised to buy from neutral at Bank of America Corp., which cited attractive valuation and solid fundamentals.

Comcast Corp. (CMCSA US): A 2003 consumers’ antitrust lawsuit against the cable-service operator is headed for trial after a federal judge in Philadelphia upheld some of the claims.

DuPont Co. (DD US): Five private equity firms have formed three teams to bid for DuPont’s car paint business, Reuters reported on April 13.

KKR & Co. (KKR US): The private-equity firm run by Henry Kravis and George Roberts may sell as many as 1.5 million shares, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Level 3 Communications Inc. (LVLT US) increased 2.9 percent to $26. The broadband-services provider said it more than doubled the capacity of its content delivery network since late 2010.

Mattel Inc. (MAT US) fell 5.5 percent to $32.24. The maker of Barbie dolls reported first-quarter sales of $928.4 million, missing the average analyst estimate of $984.7 million.

Pendrell Corp. (PCO US) plunged 27 percent to $1.59. Boeing Co. (BA US) won reversal of a $604 million verdict to the intellectual property company formerly known as ICO Global Communications Holdings Ltd. over claims that the aerospace company breached a contract to build a satellite communications network.

Procter & Gamble Co. (PG US): The world’s largest consumer- products company lifted its quarterly dividend to 56.2 cents a share from 52.5 cents.

Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN US) rose 1 percent to $32.49. The world’s largest maker of analog semiconductors will replace First Solar Inc. (FSLR US) in the Nasdaq-100 Index before the start of trading on April 23, Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. said in a statement.

Vringo Inc. (VRNG US) surged 22 percent to $3.71. Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks, reported a 7.4 percent stake in the New York-based provider of video ringtones.”

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Source

Ball Corporation (NYSE: BLL) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.

Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.

E-Commerce China Dangdang Inc. (NYSE: DANG) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Esterline Technologies (NYSE: ESL) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.

GeoResources, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEOI) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks.

Infosys Ltd. (NASDAQ: INFY) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; Cut to Neutral at Macquarie.

Invesco, Ltd. (NYSE: IVZ) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ: JBLU) Reiterated Hold at Argus.

Philips Electronics N.V. (NYSE: PHG) Named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Plains All American Pipeline. L.P. (NYSE: PAA) Reinstated as Outperform at Credit Suisse.

UIL Holdings Corp. (NYSE: UIL) Reiterated Hold at Argus.

Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UA) Reiterated Buy at Canaccord Genuity.

Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE: VNO) Raised to Outperform at Keefe Bruyette & Woods.

Waddell & Reed Financial Inc. (NYSE: WDR) Raised to Neutral at Citigroup.”

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In Play

On the Wires

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Empire Manufacturing – Prior 20.2, Market Expects 17.5, Actual 6.56

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They put he retard in fire retardant…. 

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“In his speech at the Institute For New Economic Thinking conference in Berlin, George Soros delivered one of the best and most concise assessments of what went wrong in Europe, and why things are getting worse.

You can download the full speech here (.pdf), but below we’ve excerpted what we think is the most powerful part.

In relatively few words he correctly assess the flaws of the Maastricht Treaty (the treaty that established the common currency and the rules designed to prevent government overindebtedness), and how the steps being taken to rectify things now are only exacerbating the split between core and peripheral Europe.

On this last point, he’s especially critical of the deflationary stance of the Bundesbank, in Germany, and the impact that’s having on sapping the domestic German demand that would be crucial towards helping the peripheral countries and staving off total collapse.

Even if you think you know it well, it’s worth a quick read just to see Soros’ brilliant way of describing the situation.

——

The Maastricht Treaty was fundamentally flawed, demonstrating the fallibility of the authorities. Its main weakness was well known to its architects: it established a monetary union without a political union. The architects believed however, that when the need arose the political will could be generated to take the necessary steps towards a political union.

But the euro also had some other defects of which the architects were unaware and which are not fully understood even today. First of all it failed to take into account the fallibility of the architects: there is neither an enforcement mechanism nor an exit mechanism and member countries cannot resort to printing money. This put the weaker members into the position of a third world country that became over-indebted in a hard currency.

The Maastricht Treaty also assumed that only the public sector is capable of producing unacceptable imbalances; the market was expected to correct its own excesses. And the Maastricht Treaty was supposed to have established adequate safeguards against public sector imbalances. Consequently, when the European Central Bank started operated it treated government bonds as riskless assets that
banks could hold without allocating any capital reserves against them. This encouraged commercial banks to accumulate the bonds of the weaker countries in order to earn a few extra basis points. This caused interest rates to converge which, contrary to expectations, led to divergences in economic performance. Germany, struggling with the burdens of reunification, undertook structural reforms and
became more competitive. Other countries enjoyed a housing boom that made them less competitive. Yet others had to bail out their banks after the crash of 2008. This created conditions that were far removed from those prescribed by the Maastricht Treaty with totally unexpected consequences. Government bonds which had been considered riskless turned out to carry significant credit risks.

Unfortunately the European authorities had little understanding of what hit them. They were prepared to deal with fiscal problems but only Greece qualified as a fiscal crisis; the rest of Europe suffered from a banking crisis and the divergence in competitiveness also gave rise to a balance of payments crisis. The authorities did not even understand the nature of the problem, let alone see a solution. So they tried to buy time.

Usually that works. Financial panics subside and the authorities realize a profit on their intervention. But not this time because the financial problems were reinforced by a process of political and social disintegration. While the European Union was being created, the leadership was in the forefront of further integration; but after the outbreak of the financial crisis the authorities became wedded to
preserving the status quo. This has forced all those who consider the status quo unsustainable or intolerable into an anti-European posture. That is the political dynamic that makes the disintegration of the European Union just as self- reinforcing as its creation has been.  At the onset of the crisis a breakup of the euro was inconceivable: the assets and liabilities denominated in a common currency were so intermingled that a breakup would have led to an uncontrollable meltdown. But as the crisis progressed the financial system has been progressively reoriented along national lines. This trend gathered momentum in recent months. The LTRO enabled Spanish and Italian banks to engage in a very profitable and low risk arbitrage in the bonds of their own countries. And the preferential treatment received by the ECB on its Greek bonds will discourage other investors from holding sovereign debt. If this continued for a few more years a break-up of the euro would become possible without a meltdown – the omelet could be unscrambled – but it would leave the central banks of the creditor countries with large claims against the central banks of the debtor countries which would be difficult to collect.

The Bundesbank has become aware of the danger. It is now engaged in a campaign against the indefinite expansion of the money supply and it has started taking measures to limit the losses it would sustain in case of a breakup. This is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once the Bundesbank
starts guarding against a breakup everybody will have to do the same. Markets are beginning to reflect this.

The Bundesbank is also tightening credit at home. This would be the right policy if Germany was a freestanding country but the heavily indebted member countries badly need stronger demand from Germany to avoid recessions. Without it, the eurozone’s “fiscal compact,” agreed last
December, cannot possibly work. The heavily indebted countries will either fail to implement the necessary measures, or, if they do, they will fail to meet their targets because of  collapsing demand. Either way, debt ratios will rise, and the competitiveness gap with Germany will widen.

Whether or not the euro endures, Europe is facing a long period of economic stagnation or worse. Other countries have gone through similar experiences. Latin American countries suffered a lost decade after 1982, and Japan has been stagnating for a quarter-century; both have survived. But the European Union is not a country, and it is unlikely to survive. The deflationary debt trap is threatening to destroy a still-incomplete political union.

——–

You can download the full speech here (.pdf), and we’ve also embedded the video below if you want to watch Soros deliver it.”

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdcMZ37lzQo 450 300]

 

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