Most Active Options Trades

 -CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
BAC        3/30/12          10.0000         500            0.0200      dn 0.0100 
AAPL       3/30/12         615.0000         375            3.4000      dn 2.0100 
MMR        5/19/12          14.0000         170            0.4500      dn 0.1200 
MMR        4/21/12          17.0000         170            0.0800      up 0.0200 
BAC        5/19/12           8.0000         145            1.8200      dn 0.0400 
AAPL       3/30/12         620.0000         125            1.7300      dn 1.1400 
WFC        4/21/12          39.0000         123            0.0100      dn 0.0100 
CSCO       3/30/12          21.0000         110            0.1900      up 0.0100 
GLD        3/30/12         163.0000         110            0.1700      dn 0.1800 
F          4/21/12          13.0000         106            0.1100      up 0.0100 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
BAC        4/21/12           9.0000         342            0.1900      up 0.0200 
AAPL       3/30/12         610.0000         155            2.3100      up 0.6600 
AAPL       3/30/12         615.0000         141            4.0500      up 1.1500 
DOW        4/21/12          33.0000         108            0.6400      up 0.1400 
BBY        4/21/12          24.0000          77            0.4900      up 0.0500 
AAPL       3/30/12         600.0000          73            0.7400      up 0.2400 
RIMM       4/21/12          13.0000          68            0.9200      up 0.0200 
PBR        5/19/12          24.0000          56            0.5400      up 0.2200 
BHP        4/21/12          65.0000          54            0.5500      up 0.1600 
GMCR       3/30/12          50.0000          54            1.9200      up 0.7900 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
19235    11809        31044

 -CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
BBY        4/21/12          27.0000        7702            0.1600      dn 0.8400 
BBY        4/21/12          29.0000        2824            0.0400      dn 0.2900 
AAPL       3/30/12         615.0000        2367            3.8000      dn 1.6800 
AAPL       3/30/12         620.0000        2229            1.8200      dn 1.1700 
AAPL       3/30/12         610.0000        2008            7.0500      dn 1.9000 
BIDU       3/30/12         145.0000        1543            2.6800      dn 1.1700 
RHT        4/21/12          57.5000        1315            1.3200      up 1.0200 
C          3/30/12          37.0000        1306            0.1300      dn 0.2500 
INTC       4/21/12          28.0000        1298            0.6000      up 0.0400 
BIDU        4/5/12         150.0000        1264            1.5300      dn 0.2200 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
RIMM       3/30/12          12.0000        2744            0.2800      up 0.0500 
RIMM       3/30/12          13.0000        2045            0.6000      up 0.0600 
AMD        7/21/12           7.0000        2000            0.3200      up 0.0200 
AAPL       3/30/12         610.0000        1865            2.2600      up 0.6900 
XOM        7/21/12          80.0000        1679            1.5600      up 0.1100 
AAPL       3/30/12         615.0000        1366            4.1100      up 1.0600 
BP         3/30/12          44.0000        1300            0.4400      up 0.3200 
BP         3/30/12          43.0000        1300            0.0900      up 0.0500 
BAC        4/21/12           9.0000        1268            0.1900      up 0.0300 
ILMN       4/21/12          50.0000        1138            1.0000      dn 1.1500 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
277024    253878        530902

Source

“During bullish market advances there is a lot of faulty analysis done in order to promote a bullish bias.  Wells Fargo Advisors today pretty much just captured the gold in this competition with this piece of lunacy via Bloomberg:  “Wells Fargo Advisors examined return for stocks over next 10 yrs when the start date is three years into a bull market and found in prior cycles that stocks have risen a median of 162%; implies S&P 500 can reach ~3700 by 2022.

• Firm examined five prior cycles starting in year 3 of bull market: Chief Equities Strategist Stuart Freeman in note yesterday
• 1973-1983, 1977-1987, 1983-1993, 1985-1995, 1993-2003
• 2006 cycle only 6 yrs old, posting 12% return
• 10-yr returns range from low of 57% for ’73-’83 cycle to high of 194% for ’85-’95 cycle
• “What we are suggesting is that there is much evidence the last 40-plus years of later-cycle returns following the first upleg in cyclical bull markets and periods of mid- cycle meandering”

report developing….

Think regional

“The threat of a double-dip recession is a thing of the past, and even the ailing housing sector is starting to turn around support the overall economy, says Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase.

The economy is poised to continue growing, and banks are planning for more growth, and not for a return to recession.

“No one can forecast the economy with certainty,” Dimon tells CNBC, “but most of us in business [have] got growth plans that have nothing to do with the actual state of the economy.”

Read more 

Full report

…but it’s working for now and that is all anyone care about ….

Source

The Greek central bank – whatever that is: some local subsidiary of the ECB? – released February corporate and household deposit data. The chart below explains it all: back to May 2006 levels and the run shows no sign of abating And remember Venizelos’ sage February words of advice?“VENIZELOS SAYS NOW IS THE TIME FOR DEPOSITS TO RETURN TO BANKS“… that didn’t work too well.

Source

“(Reuters) – Leaders of the BRICS group of emerging market nations pressed Western powers to cede more voting rights at the IMF this year and flayed the rich world’s reflationary monetary policies for putting global economic stability in jeopardy.

“This dynamic process of reform is necessary to ensure the legitimacy and effectiveness of the Fund,” Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa said in a joint declaration after their one-day summit in New Delhi.

“We stress that the ongoing effort to increase the lending capacity of the IMF will only be successful if there is confidence that the entire membership of the institution is truly committed to implement the 2010 Reform faithfully.”

Promised changes to voting rights at the IMF have yet to be ratified by the United States, adding to frustration over reform of the G7 and the U.N. Security Council, where India and Brazil have been angling for years for permanent seats.

The BRICS leaders also accused rich countries of destabilizing the world economy five years into the global financial crisis.

“It is critical for advanced economies to adopt responsible macroeconomic and financial policies, avoid creating excessive global liquidity and undertake structural reforms to lift growth that create jobs,” they said in a joint declaration.

The rich world’s monetary policy “brings enormous trade advantages to developed countries, and results in unfair obstacles for other countries,” Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff said at the summit.”

Hurrah….

MM flying high up 100%

Source

“Morgan Stanley’s economics team led by Joachim Fels just raised its estimate for 2012 global GDP growth to 3.7 percent from 3.5 percent.

The primary reason for this was a huge upward revision in their China GDP estimate.

From their note to clients:

In China, where our previous above-consensus forecast of 8.4% 2012 GDP growth had become (published) consensus in recent months, we raise our forecast to 9.0%, one of the highest in the Street. As Helen Qiao and her China team explain in more detail in a companion note, this is essentially a call on additional macro stimulus being implemented in the very near term in response to somewhat disappointing results during the first few months of the year. In addition to further RRR cuts, OMO and window guidance intensification, we expect the government to support loan demand by lowering the benchmark interest rate by 25bp at least once, resuming infrastructure investment projects, as well as promoting first-time home purchase and developers’ ‘regular commodity housing’ construction to smooth the cycle.

Fels says that Morgan Stanley also upped its growth estimate for Japan.

In Japan, the upward revision from 1.1% to 1.8% largely reflects a better-than- expected ramp into the year and stronger capex assumptions.

But things aren’t completely rosy.  Fels warns that risks are heavily skewed to the down side.

Risks remain skewed to the downside… with old (potential political gridlock leading to fiscal tightening next year in the US, or a euro crisis) and new (oil price) hazards each being serious enough to potentially derail the recovery: the distance between our bear case and our base case for global growth is 1pp, twice the distance between base and bull.”

Source

“Please consider a series of chart my friend “BC” put together of various indices vs. the Morgan Stanley Commodity Related Equity Index ($CRX).

What is the Commodities Sector Seeing that the Stock Market Doesn’t?

The answer from my friend Pater Tenebrarum who also saw these charts is “the coming economic bust in China – which has likely already begun.”

That idea is in-line with several of my recent posts …

• Hidden Losses and Little Reform; China May Be Slowing More Than You Think
• World Bank Warns of Economic Crisis in China; Only 3% Growth for Decade Says Michael Pettis
• “Curbs Needed to Avoid China Property Chaos” Says China’s Premier; Chinese Economy Already in Hard Landing? Regardless, It’s Too Late to Prevent Chaos
• Michael Pettis: Long-Term Outlook for China, Europe, and the World; 12 Global Predictions

Below, the four charts that show it all.

$SPX vs. $CRX

Global Economic Analysis

$CYC vs. $CRX

Global Economic Analysis

$TRAN vs. $CRX

Global Economic Analysis

$DJUSRR vs. $CRX

Global Economic Analysis

Read more: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/03/question-of-day-what-is-commodities.html#ixzz1qVsH4k8h

To the moon and beyond….

Well it’s about fucking time.

Full Article

Glad they got him!

“Recent economic data suggest the U.S. economy will power ahead of Europe in the first half of 2012, with consumers growing increasingly confident and boosting activity in the former while more reforms are needed in the latter to boost growth, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said in a report on Thursday.

Martin Barraud | OJO Images | Getty Images

“In the United States, growth prospects continue to firm,” the organization said. “The rebound in equity prices, stronger consumer confidence, and growth in nonfarm payroll employment have lifted projected activity.”

The improved outlook was also reflected in better consumer confidence, increased motor vehicle sales, industrial production and credit growth, it said.

The OECD warned, however, that high oil prices, as well as the housing market, which remains fragile, pose a threat to the recovery in the United States.

The improved outlook for the U.S. contrasts with a weak outlook for Europe.

“The situation for the three largest euro area countries in aggregate is expected to remain fragile, with negative growth projected for the first quarter of 2012 and a moderate rebound in the second quarter,” according to the OECD….”

Read and watch more 

Gapping up

GALE +15%, RHT +8.3%, LORL +5.2%, FOSL +2.6%, ILMN +2.2%, FUL +1.3%,

Gapping down

CHTP -30.5%, SABA -7%, ONTY -4.6%, MOS -1.8%, FTE -1.7%, ZNGA -0.7%,

Source

Fossil Inc. (FOSL) : The watchmaker was picked by Standard & Poor’s to replace Medco Health Solutions Inc. (MHS) , which is being taken over, in the S&P 500 on a date to be announced.BioMed Realty Trust Inc. (BMR) will take Fossil’s place in the S&P MidCap 400 Index, whileInnophos Holdings Inc. (IPHS) will replace BioMed in the S&P SmallCap 600.

Google Inc. (GOOG) : The search-engine operator was rated buy in new coverage at ThinkEquity LLC with a price estimate of $714.

Paychex Inc. (PAYX) : The Rochester, New York-based payroll services company for small businesses reported third- quarter earnings that met analyst projections and reiterated its yearly forecast for net income to increase 5 percent to 7 percent, compared with analyst estimates for 7 percent.

Red Hat Inc. (RHT) : The software maker that specializes in the Linux operating system and other open-source programs’ fourth-quarter adjusted earnings and revenue that exceeded analyst forecasts, according to the average estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The company also said it approved a program to repurchase as much as $300 million of its stock.

Verint Systems Inc. (VRNT) : The maker of software that helps businesses analyze performance forecast first-quarter revenue of at least $860 million, beating the $858.5 million average estimate of two analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Source

Alcatel-Lucent S.A. (NYSE: ALU) Maintained Sell with $2.00 target at S&P.

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) Started as Buy at ThinkEquity.

Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) Cut to Hold at Argus.

ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) Raised to Neutral at BNP Paribas.

AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) Cut to Neutral at Baird.

Cypress Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: CY) Raised to Buy at Lazard (late Wednesday call).

Delek US Holdings Inc. (NYSE: DK) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse; named as value stock of the day at Zacks.

eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) Started as Buy at ThinkEquity.

Express Scripts Inc. (NASDAQ: ESRX) Reiterated Buy and raised target from $65 to $67 at BofA/ML.

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Started as Buy at ThinkEquity.

HollyFrontier Corporation (NYSE: HFC) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Janus Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE: JNS) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.

Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) Reiterated Buy and raised target from $60 to $65 at BofA/ML.

Logitech International (NASDAQ: LOGI) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.

Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) Cut to Neutral at Baird.

The Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) Started as Hold at ThinkEquity.