Disorderly Greek default would cause 1 trillion + euro losses

LONDON/ATHENS (Reuters) – A disorderly Greek default would cause more than a trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) of damage to the euro zone and could leave Italy and Spain dependent on outside help to stop contagion spreading, the main bondholders group has said.

Greek private creditors have until Thursday night to say whether they will participate in a bond swap that is part of a bailout and restructuring deal to help it manage its finances and meet a debt repayment on March 20.

Investors will lose almost three-quarters of the value of their debt in the exchange. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told Reuters on Monday it was the best deal they would get and those who did not sign up would still be forced to take losses.

Analysts said the Institute of International Finance document, marked “IIF Staff Note: Confidential,” may have been designed to alarm investors into participating in the exchange.

“There are some very important and damaging ramifications that would result from a disorderly default on Greek government debt,” the IIF said in the February 18 document obtained by Reuters.

“It is difficult to add all these contingent liabilities up with any degree of precision, although it is hard to see how they would not exceed 1 trillion euros.”