Long Term Home Run Call: CMG $600- $1350

“Janney is making Glory Hound call on Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) calling it a $1,000+ stock in the long-run.

(Got your attention, didn’t I?)

Well, their actual 12-month target is a mere Street high of $375 (prev. $330) as their estimates for 2011/12 move above consensus.

The details:

Based on favorable feedback from multiple industry sources, we raise our 2011 and 2012 EPS estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG $289.54; Buy) by nine cents and 35 cents, respectively, to $6.85 and $8.45. Each of these figures lies four cents above First Call consensus.

Looking specifically at Q2 2011, we take up our same-store sales forecast to 8.5% from 6.5%, above the Consensus Metrix figure of 7.8%. This drives our Q2 EPS estimate upwards by two cents, to $1.72 (four cents above First Call consensus).

Over time, we view the long-term potential of the Chipotle concept as 3,000-4,000 in the U.S., at least 2,400 in Europe, and at least several hundred in the Asia/Pacific region. This is at least 6,000 worldwide outlets for the Chipotle concept. But we do not believe Chipotle views itself as “just” a burrito company. Indeed, the first of the company’s ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen restaurants is scheduled to open this summer in Washington D.C. Over the long run, it’s entirely possible that the company could host 3-5 concepts under its belt — each focused on high-quality ingredients, fine-dining cooking techniques, and speedy customer service (albeit through different cuisines).”

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