I dont do Fed anymore.
For one thing, it’s always the same conversation. For another, it doesn’t make you money.
That’s not an idle complaint. Interest rates don’t predict stock movements. Neither do 10 year yields, dividends, or the Shiller CAPE PE. Here, via Vanguard is a whole list of conventional indicators that mean almost nothing in terms of forecaster future stocks moves:
Nothing Yellen can possibly say will help you pick stocks. It’s not actionable information.
So instead of parsing Yellen I revisited the Batman indicator. Like a NY Times reporter I tweaked my data set until I found a nice fat correlation to support my idiotic assertion. As you can see in the attached graphic, my work has uncovered a concerning indicator for stocks.
Please do nothing with your portolfios based on this information (statistically accurate though it is).
(Thanks to the Economist for their inspiring, if limited, base graphics)
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Jeff—big fan of your writing (and drawings). Very helpful through the dark days this winter.
I’m surprised no comment on Valspar, given the MN connection. Full disclosure—I’ve had it in a DRIP since 1992 so last Monday was a good day, but I’ll be sorry to see them absorbed. My wife worked there for a bit when I was in grad school and it was maybe the first stock we bought. She thought they were good people, and I always thought of them as the company in the old United commercial, with the offices over the factory floor. Still brings a tear does old Ben.
I liked Adam West myself.
POW! SOK !BLAP! KLANG!
Jeff, you have to make the posts so we can click on your amazing art work so it can be bigger and viewed better for those of us that need glasses but refuse to wear them
I can certainly try (which is to say “ask a Millennial to do it for me since I have no idea how to do it myself!)
Thanks for your patience and gracious words.
You can right click on any image to open in a new tab in Safari, not sure about windows. Then increase the font in the toolbar to zoom in on the image.
Guess what I hear about those West Coast pharmaceuticals is true.