iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,083 Blog Posts

Bond Yields Have CRASHED to the Lows

In early 2016 they got down this low and then roared higher and once again we are here with the 10yr at 1.59%, down 5 bps wondering what it all means. The economy is supposed to be robust and big titted and strong. If it was, would rates be this low? I think not. Then again, profits are real and we’re raking in trillions. Businesses are firing on all cylinders. Monopolies go unchecked and we’re winning trade wars left and right, as our enemies deal with the plague.

Over in Europe, they still have negative rates, quite deep actually. If you have any decent sized account there, you’re paying a negative interest rate to your bank for the pleasure. This all gives me a sickened feeling in my gut, but alas — markets are at record highs and nothing seems able to disrupt it. Plus, and let’s not forget this, the central bankers have finally figured out how to eliminate the business cycle. No more boom-bust, just boom all the time because of excess liquidity.

Nevertheless, I have a mixed bag today, down on the day. Following my sojourn into virus stocks — I haven’t traded too well, aside from nailing the top in TSLA with puts.

I usually got to the gym in the morning, after taking my daughter to school. But today I slept in because her school was canceled and I feel great. I rarely get more than 4 hours sleep these days. About a decade ago, when I was a salamander like financial advisor, sitting poolside taking in the sun, I’d regularly get 7-8hrs per day and I never aged. Word of advice for the young punks reading this now, try to max out your sleep — it really does make a difference.

At any rate, back to work. Since I’m not making any money today I either need to cull some losers or find some winners.

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10 comments

  1. numbersgame

    That first paragraph sounds very familiar…

    There’s only one explanation I can think of for this week’s market action: Gartman is gone, but he has a successor:
    https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/01/31/crash-one-last-coronavirus-stock-road/#comment-565761

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  2. mx2101

    Fly you need more than four hours. Yes, you have family tasks. But you do not have a commute. Get the sleep.

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  3. heckler

    UBER is up 1% for each billion it lost last year. And I’m long into earnings not even realizing it and I slept like a baby for 10 hours last night.

    Here’s your explanation: Trump is fucking psycho and the entire county is manic and delusional and it’s not going to stop any time soon. Fuck your bonds and buy some shit stocks. Get used to it Master Ace.

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    • numbersgame

      On UBER, I ran some numbers based on their information here:
      https://seekingalpha.com/article/4322276-uber-technologies-inc-2020-q4-results-earnings-call-presentation

      They break down Uber Rides vs Uber Eats, except for in number of trips. However, by making an assumption that Uber Eats booking cost $5/ride, you can back-calculate the split (I also assummed that the $5 was constant each quarter). Here is where that gets you (2018Q4 -> 2019 Q4):

      Uber Eats
      Booking price/trip: $5.00
      Trips: 512M -> 875M
      ANR*/trip: $0.32 -> $0.47

      Uber Rides
      Trips: 981M -> 1032M
      Booking price/trip: $11.70 .-> $13.09
      ANR*/trip: $2.39 -> $2.94

      So almost all of the trip growth is in the unprofitable, low-margin segment (Uber Eats).

      *Adjusted Net Revenue (ANR): not sure exactly what this is…Seems to be Net Profit, if you exclude corporate items such as Sales, Depreciation, R&D, etc. Probably equivalent to “Gross Revenue – Cost of Goods” for a retail store.

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    • numbersgame

      Alterantely, you could assume that Uber Eats bookign price went up:

      Uber Eats
      Booking price/trip: $5.00 -> $6.00
      Trips: 512M -> 729M
      ANR*/trip: $0.32 -> $0.57

      Uber Rides
      Trips: 981M -> 1178M
      Booking price/trip: $11.70 .-> $11.47
      ANR*/trip: $2.39 -> $2.58

      This yields a significant increase in Uber Ride trips, but a smaller change in Uber Rides profitablity.

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  4. purdy

    MRNA and ABBV high and tight intraday.

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  5. numbersgame

    For the Wuhan virus, we’ve reached another milestone, one that I warned about: people are getting sick and authorities have no idea how they acqired the virus.
    https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coronavirus-outbreak-alert-upped-to-orange-as-more-cases-surface-with-no-known-links-more

    That’s why bonds are still rising.

    This has already effected the earnings of a number of S&P 500 companies (TSLA, AAPL, DIS, SBUX, McDonalds, not to mention airline, cruise lines and casinos just off the top of my head). Reaction? ATH

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    • alty

      You’re looking at things backwards waiting for price to follow the headlines.

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  6. flea

    Pure rotation these days:

    1/31 Dow down 600 … 10 yr. down .04
    2/4 Dow up 400 … 10 yr up .08
    2/5 Dow up 500 … 10 yr up .05
    2/7 Dow down 300 … 10 yr down .06

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  7. awanka

    This pig sleeps like the dead, Mr. Fly.

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