I took the small pause in selling after the trading halt this morning to LIQUIDATE all of my holdings. I then attempted a few trades on the long side, only to get BOGGED the fuck out.
Here are the net results
SOXL +3%
AHPI +13%
KL +6.6%
(TNA -13%)
(FAS -8.2%)
(APA -7.5%)
(LABU -10%)
Net net, maybe a loss of 100bps, on top of the losses I endured in the drawdown in my tankers. I was 75% cash heading into today, so not that big a dent. I am now replete with cash and only long treasuries. I do not like the action at all and do not like the idea of holding 3x inverses overnight either, since a short sale ban might be coming.
Supply chains are seizing up and toilet paper is a luxury now. We are staring down the barrel of a loaded pistol that is more apt to blow our faces off than offer us a free blow job.
DO YOURSELVES A FAVOR and heed my warnings: WE CANNOT STOP THE SELLING.
I might attempt some more day trades — because I like to trade. All in all, credit markets are being supported by the Fed on the treasury level — so TLT, TMF and ZROZ are SAFU.
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Your XAIR is getting some interest here. GILD is high and tightish intraday.
Would it be surprise if they ban short selling right after we hit VIX 80?
Normally, retail invesotrs buy high, sell low. So when markets crash, the 1% scoop up shares.
Short selling pushes prices down, so that means one of two things. So if prices are already below fair value, then short selling helps the 1%, increasing their shopping discount. However, if prices started overvalued and shorts puch them down quickly, then the 1% don’t have time for distribution and are caught holding stocks they don’t want.
Hence, a ban on short selling would be an indication to me that the Invisble Hand (workign for the 1%) thinks stocks are overpriced, but wants to slow the descent.
Much better tone out of the White House …Yeah!
..if only he’d left it to the pros after the tone set in the first few minutes.
White House: not over until August … maybe July
I can only imagine what the talking cigarette guy’s comments are by now – if he’s still around. “He told youuuuuuuuuuuu….”
totally respect the decision making. not that many will be able once again…
WTF? The DOW just blew through it’s 2nd circuit breaker (13%).
I guess it’s not applicable after 3:00 pm
Wuff. That was bracing.
Honestly, I am dumbfounded by the violence of the selloff and the universal Armageddon sentiment. There was a signal though today that tells me the selling me be soon be exhausted. Prior to my local gym closing it’s doors today at 3pm for the next few weeks (at least), I noticed none of the hipsters were watching Bloomberg or Cramer on any of the big screen TV’s. Instead, Seinfeld and ESPN and soap operas were on.
What in the fuck can ESPN be showing these days?
my point
DSLV free money
Never trusted GS, but for once here they put an excellent report regarding COVID epidemic, better than any crap you have been listening from Fauci, Gupta OZ et al. From Zerohedge. Maybe they have better doctors working for them.
I may add the virus is already here, and on the way out it is not coming on a slow boat.
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it’s very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.
Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ?9/11 than it does like 2008.
The mortality rate in the US will be a fraction of one, my understanding.
NYS unemployment website crashed. immigrant restaurant workers wont be paying rent. and their landlords wont be paying mortgages. fully loaded BMWs on sale for under $10k in 3… 2… 1…