Do you know when the Coronavirus FEARS will subside? How about — do you know if this novel strain is resistant to warmer climes or not? I haven’t received a definitive answer.
Another question.
Would you invest in a company now with MASSIVE OVERHEAD and burn and zero revenues? That’s just about the entirety of the global markets right now — as companies seize up and shut the fuck down. The optimist in me keeps saying ‘this is going to pass’ and that’s all well and good. I am an excellent trader and reader of tea leaves. Therefore, and this goes without saying, why the fuck am I still holding onto long term positions — like a dummy — simply because of the old “buy and hold” mantra? This stratagem worked WONDERS in 2008 and 1929; I’m sure it’ll do just as fine now.
I’ll put it to you this way, and you’re seeing the panic now outside, if this lasts 3 months every company in the S&P 500 will have a liquidity issue and revenue down 50% or more, with marked exception to consumer staples. Companies like CHD, CLX, GIS and grocery stores might do well during the fires.
But what if the supply chain of food gets disrupted by COUNTER PARTY RISK? Don’t know what that is? Well, at the depths of the 2009 crisis there was a palpable fear that things would not get shipped — because the person paying for goods wasn’t to be trusted — since banks were on edge and just about everyone was barreling towards bankruptcy. People wanted to get paid immediately — NO RECEIVABLES.
I can only see one way out of this — BANK HOLIDAY and EXCHANGE CLOSURE, unless of course this subsides by miracle.
Therefore, come Monday I am switching to 100% tactical allocation and liquidating my Quant and retirement accounts.
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CORONAVIRUS CAUGHT TRUMP
CREMATE-TRUMP 2020
When a sitting-POTUS died in office, even in the case of the much underrated James Garfield, the nation at least respectfully mourned.
This time the reactions will be different, as the Trump presidency get dismissed as a hoax that “a lot of people” (my favorite Trumpism) wish never happened.
FWIW, a throwback for when it comes to the “results” from his doctors:
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/385765-trumps-ex-doctor-says-trump-dictated-letter-claiming-he-would-be
And if he doesn’t FUCKING DIE already, he already FUCKED all the marginal seats in the House and the Senate with this CUNT being a prime example:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_kelly-6801.html
Fly – this the first time you’ve liquidated? Did you liquidate in ’08?
Yes, I was SHORT in 2008. You can always go back into my archives on the sidebar to read what I was saying then.
Wow dude … one of the worst cases of TDS I’ve ever seen. He’s living in your head rent-free – no wait you’re paying him!
It’s more about the Confederate forces that he represents. He is just the clown face of them.
Make no mistake. This is another Civil War (of attrition). He has spent more than 3 years to carry out ineffective policies to prolong the control of political powers for a majority of whites.
COVID will purge more voters of these Confederate forces than anyone thought possible. His incompetence will exacerbate the attrition.
The real threat is math: there are limited numbers of ICU’s, ICU staff, and respirators. This virus is not only very nasty – it is very contagious. If EVERYONE gets sick at the same time the problem will be resource scarcity as we see in Italy where choices have to be made as to who gets a respirator and who dies. If we all get sick over an extended time, the virus will remain nasty and a particular threat to the elderly and those with weak immune systems and per-existing conditions but we will be able to fight it to the maximum as long as we don’t have to turn anyone away from an ICU or a respirator and as long as services continue (picking up the garbage, etc…).
Infectious Disease expert Michael Osterholm said the rumor that hot temperatures and humidity deter the virus is fake news. Osterholm said there is no evidence that high temperature deters the virus.
Where does word cold enter into clod&flu- the common cold. India is a dirty crowded retched place, little of this virus showing up there. During the Dark Ages dirty was cool.
India is still in its dry season. It’ll probably spread there more in April-May.
The numbers are staggering. Only 100K ICU beds in the entire country. We don’t even have 1 million regular hospital beds in the country. If this last 8 weeks, we could be staring at a catastrophe. I live in back-woods country. I’m talking very self sufficient people with pick up trucks and lots of guns-n-ammo. People who just don’t get scared. But even they are getting a bit on edge, ’round these here parts.
BEST HEALTHCARE IN THE WORLD!
2009-10 roughly 60,000,000 Americans caught the Swine flu
and 300,000 were hospitalized. I do not remember the same hysteria as we have now. Can someone explain the difference in the two situations? Please no sarcasm.
Really good question. It’s like we’ve collectively decided the lives of older people must be protected at any cost. It’s the fear and quarantines that are killing us, not the flu itself. Kids pretty much just shrug off the Corona virus. I agree with Elon that this is all so stupid.
1) 1 in 7 people age 70+ contracting COVID-19 will die from it
2) Old people control the federal governement (Trump, Pelosi, Schumer, McConnel, etc.)
3) Old people own most of the stocks
4) COVID-19 can be trasnmitted asymptoamtically (the main issues that turned me froma a doubter in Janaury), so it is very difficult to contain.
5) Stock arr coming off of elveated levels, so they have more room to fall than they did in 2009
You have to look at the hospitalization rate to understand why the experts are concerned. 15% and the hospitalizations are running around 2 weeks average. 15% of 60 million is 9 million hospitalized which 1/3 of them will need to be in ICU to have a chance to survive… 3 million ICU patients vs 100k ICU units.. must be spread over a long period of time. that’s why people are freaking out. That 60 million is much lower than the experts are estimating also.. they are saying upwards of 60-70% of the population will get it.. do that math and then pull your head out of your ass.
Because in a decade science has advanced, we can identify each individual case with our vaunted genetic tests. Look it is here it’s there…spreading all over ….rapidly.
Went to brunch at this overpriced joint that always required at least 20 minutes wait in ritzy Buckhead.
It was half empty.
I do hope that things stay this way…
Stayed at Hyatt. Only a few business people there. Great time for us! Only downside they closed all restaurants.
Absolutely looking forward to the discounts and the most epic deflationary vortex in US history.
Didn’t watch the video yet but I’m sure I agree.
Our coronavirus efforts are a joke. This won’t go away for a year.
Bold move, Mr. Fly. The news continues to get worse. I think the buyers into the Friday ramp will not be happy on Monday. I expect another limit down. The bears are not defeated. The bears cannot be defeated because this is not a one day event we can just recover from.
olua Trump bragging is setting himself up to look like a clown….. again.
The BTFD crowd are walking into a slaughterhouse.
Italy numbers from today are staggering, and that’s on full lock down.
And so far Italy has done a better job than us. There is no stopping this. Too late.
This crisis has been fucked up every way it could have been fucked up.
I woudln’t say Italy has done a better job at all.
They have 1300+ deaths.
They are ahead of us in measures only because they are ahead of us in overall popualtion infection rate.
They’re as incompetent as us except they have a great deal more tst kits. We’re fuckef.
I assume you think that Friday’s bounce was temporary and we will continue dropping, so you want to sell into the pop. You’ll have to pay the cap gains tax though so when this crisis ends you’ll have less to re-invest.
I am living off my dividends so it really isn’t an option for me, but over half of my investable assets are in cash like instruments anyways so hopefully I can ride it out.
Income from Treasury bonds, bank CDs, fixed annuities, high quality bonds from APPL, JNJ, and other AA or higher issuers are all sound, although they may be hard to sell (liquidity issies…)
Stock divididends will be reduced.
High-yield and low quality investment grade debt are at risk of possible default a few months down the road
Investment grade funds are a mixed bag, because some the stuff in them is not really that great.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/half-of-investment-grade-bonds-are-only-one-step-away-from-junk-status-2019-01-07
https://www.pimco.com/en-us/insights/viewpoints/investment-grade-credit-be-actively-aware-of-bbb-bonds
WTF?:? when did the Fly start “selling in the hole”? At least wait to leg out at the retest of 3000. (Ok, that could well be Monday). Sadly, a break through in a Corona vaccine would rip the market higher than a cancer cure. Strange times. Roche just got their test approved. This is pivotal. Very few get that concept, just yet. Once you find the enemy you can defeat them. If you have to freak out, buy some gold for christsakes. Get a hold of yourself lad.
MARKET WAS UP 2,000 ON FRIDAY YOU BRAINLET
I gotta be able to wear my “DOW 25,000” hat for the third time. That’s the rules.
Great, put it storage and you can dust it off when Trump’s out of office.
Retest of 3000 on Monday? Not a chance. Zero (okay, 1 in 10,000)
Re: vaccine
“Hey we just developed this vacccine. Not tested yet, so it may give you immunity, or it may give you FULL BLOWN COVID-19. Or it may have some other side effects that we haven’t even thought of. Do you want it?”
Fuck no. I’m either
a) young and strong enough to fight it
b) old and would rather not purposefully expose myself to an untested version of it
https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-product-approval-process
Speaking of vaccine, the Fuhrer still thinks that “vaccine” means “cure” because even Fauci doesn’t want to bother to educate him.
He’s surrounded himself with professional suckasses.
By now, hoepefully everyone is at least 50% cash in their investment accounts. Also a good idea to have multiple bank accounts. You will not lose your money, but you may have to wait if banks do have issues.
But before anyone panics too much, think about where the US will be 2 years from now.
– Is there a danger to the electrical grid/energy resources?
Doesn’t seem to be
– Is there a danger to water supply?
Doesn’t seem to be. COVID-19 can’t survicve in your stomach, so can’t contamiante drinkign water
– Is there a danger to the food supply?
Supply disruption issues may affect certain foods, but the US can self-sufficiently feed our population. COVID-19 doesn’t poison foods/crops.
– Is there a danger to Federal Government funding?
Well, Wednesday and Thursday leave this as an open question, part of the reason that it may be fianlly time to be mindful of the natioanl debt and to spend more wisely (https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/03/13/day-micro-trading-come-end/#comment-567545) Still, other countries are worse off that us, and whiel a human tragedy, old peopel dieing from COVID-19 may actaully help the medcial system and social security in the long term.
If only there were a company that could capitalize on a situation like this. One that had a vast online store and had already spent billions of dollars and years of time building an infrastructure with extreme distribution and delivery capabilities. One that were present in many major companies across the globe affected by this virus. If only that company were run by someone who knew how to crush competition and seize market share at opportune times, and if only that stock would drop in price during such a crisis. My my my what an opportunity that would be.
…One that didn’t have tiny margins on most of its gigantic revenue stream. One whose primary profit was from a totally different part of tis business, that will likely shrink as its customers face revenue shortfalls of their own. One that is not so commonyl owned already instock indexes that it won’t face large passive sells in the future.
If only such a comapny existed indeed.
I’m 20% short. 80% cash. Expecting big declines soon.
BTW. Did you ever see a more manipulated move that the one Friday. Wow. Just wow.
Yeah, but how?
Fly was definitely ahead of the curve on getting TF out of the NY Metro area! Hat tip.
I tried watching this video on youtube: After a minute or 2 it cut to a commercial that I cannot opt out of. The commercial length: 7:57:38.
Why don’t they come up with a “violation” and just delete his youtube account?
There’s an agenda, but I don’t know what it is.
De Blasio DOOMSDAY! The Plan For NYC Revealed! GET OUT NOW!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgPmZYNPEkk
I don’t trust anyone that wears Affliction.
I wonder what sorcery the cabal of central bankers are cooking up.
I wonder what they thinking about the
1) the ineffective 0.50pt FEDemergency cut
2) the ineffective (or worse if it acatully helped) $1T FED liquidity
3) lack of buyers for long term US Treasuries
3b) waht the US Treasury market symptoms will mean for countries with lower and negative rates.
The narrative changed since 1/2 point cut by FED, from Chinese virus to white man’s Ebola….
COVID19 is not a type on influenza, it is a type of cold. Still, for old fat people, like any other type of cold, it can develop into a deep chest cold which can then progress to pneumonia. Folks you can’t help getting old, but you can stay lean and fit. So let’s all put our big boy pants back on.
What type of cold that can inflict this type of damage? A FUCKING SCARY TYPE.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-what-happens-to-peoples-lungs-when-they-get-covid-19
A fourth group, Wilson says, will develop severe illness that features pneumonia.
He says: “In Wuhan, it worked out that from those who had tested positive and had sought medical help, roughly 6% had a severe illness.”
Almost 100% of the over 65’s here in Canada are vaccinated against bacterial pneumonia as it is free and routinely given, so some possible complications are lessened.
I posted similar thoughts 2 days ago, only time will tell.
Here’s a golden nugget for you weekend readers, publised yesterday
“Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Coronavirus Disease in Japan, 2020”
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/3/789
I’ll post a TL;DR version on Monday
Japan is densely packed, with 128 million people. It is very close to China, but does have a geogrphical (water) barrier. Yet, does it meet the smell test that japan has less infections than:
Norway (5.5 million people)
Denmark (5.8 m)
Switzerland (8.6 m)
Sweden (10 m)
Ntherlands (17 m)
and even the UK , another island nation?
Japan has a smaller overall infection rate (5.6 per million people) than the US (5.8), according to their stats. Makes China’s stats look transparent as a ghost.
This is the big one! Here I come Elizabeth!
I speculate that the panic over the virus will peak in a few weeks when hospitals are overwhelmed and most everyone in the population will know of someone who had a beloved baby boomer parent or grandparent who had to be triaged to death. (At this point our identity politics addict – Numbers – will experience multiple orgasms.)
Then, having realized the complete incompetence of the administration of our used car salesman in Chief, state and local officials will have started to take over the management of the situation …and the infection’s growth will begin to trend down and things will very slowly get better.
There is a reset coming and I have no idea where to hide. And no, cash is not the answer.
Possible that cash won’t hold. But everyday is different.
Permanent portfolio 20% each stocks bonds cash gold btc. Can’t go tits up
Dr. Fly, sell any day you hear 50 people died in NYC.
I provide primary care for homebound elderly, a few 100+ years old, all over Brooklyn and Manhattan. I have noticed Flu outbreaks 2 wk before NYSDOH. It has been eerie quiet here as for as serious respiratory illness is concerned. So either this virus is advancing at snail’s pace or it is already here causing mild cold symptoms in majority of the population.
One thing I am certain, it is highly communicable, requiring minimal-short exposure. Although I do find it hard to explain the difference in disease presentation in Italy and here in the tri-state area. Either we have some immunity from prior exposure to similar virus or it has mutated to a more benign form.
Early mass testing would have clarified the threat and avoided mass hysteria and economic freefall.
Italy’s population is quite old, the second oldest behind Japan. Also, if you’ve ever been there, you know that a HUGE number of Italians smoke. I went last year and was shocked how common cigarettes smoking was. It was like the US back in the 1980’s. On the streets, inside the restaurants, in the train stations, everywhere. Packs of cigarettes littered all over the ground with grotesque pictures of rotten teeth etc on the packages.
Will be interesting to see how this affects the retards who willingly inhale water vapor and unknown flavored chemicals into their lungs on the regular
Yes it will. My guess is they will fare better than smokers, but who knows.
At a restaurant in Tuscany, even our freaking waiter was smoking, not at the table, but inside the restaurant where everyone could clearly see him.
Japan and China are also world champion smokers, but no one can compete with the Russians. If this shit gets a foothold there, it will make WWII look like a walk in the park.
I think they will sort out the oil BS very soon to try and simplify the situation.
NFLX is the only long position I’m holding at the moment, but it hasn’t done as well as I’d hoped. It’s highly correlated with the FANG companies, so it will likely track the NASDAQ whether it deserves to or not.
It is the N in FANG…
Nah – it got booted. I think what he’s referring to is the latest thing: FAAMGs (Microsoft)
that’s why I said it’s highly correlated to the FANG companies…
There are a few companies that are immune, at least in the short term, to the economic slowdown caused by the COVID-19 panic.
They are $NFLX and $SPOT.
$AMZN will likely benefit.
You are about 4 weeks late on that but it’s still a profitable pair trade to long the COVID-PROOF basket and short the GO-OUTSIDE-TO-DEAL-WITH-THE-VIRUS (much bigger) basket.
Good call Flyseph. Hope all is well. Trading with you in 2008 through the crisis was life-changing. Being up 10% on the year was spectacular. I think you are right about the supply chain disruptions. That is the next shoe to fall. Then, recession.
Thanks Wood
They have a real dilemma.
“COUNTER PARTY RISK? People wanted to get paid immediately — NO RECEIVABLES.”
I can only see one way out of this — BANK HOLIDAY and EXCHANGE CLOSURE, unless of course this subsides by miracle.
Counter Party Risk – As they say, Bitcoin fixes this. Not completely of course; but no trust required. In an hour, you have your money – no charge-backs possible. You don’t have to melt down gold coins to see if they are real. You don’t have to yellow pen the 100’s to see if they are counterfeit. Exchange controls – no effect.
The dilemma is: they need to destroy bitcoin and destroy cash. It’s a tough one. They can punch Bitcoin in the face, then elbow cash in the head; but then the fight really just begins.
Bank “holidays ” encourage cash hording and encourages crypto use. And they likely cannot simply El Corralito us over to FedCoin, ‘less they want to be Knob Hill’d.
Good luck PPT. You’re gonna need it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corralito
http://www.knobcreekrange.com/media/video
Mr Crypto talking his book again. Safe haven they said…
How many people do you know that still use cash? Blockchain will be implanted into our being soon enough, just like we swipe credit cards now
The constant pumping by fanatics attempting to convert though. Why not just accumulate as much as you can before the word gets out?
I’ll assume the motive is to educate and possibly help the ibc community bank coin. At least btc is not at all time highs while doing so
That makes sense. I’m rooting for the technology.
Historic liquidations just occurred across all crypto exchanges. I was like one week too early moving into the crypto space but from what I gather you can make the case that this huge BTC drop was exactly what was needed before the asset could actually start working as a “store of value.” Pretty much all long and short speculators just got roasted and people still holding are HODLers. Someone accumulated a shitload of BTC at discount and doesn’t want the price lower. Also simps and newbs are super bearish calling for BTC $1000. I think buying some here make sense. I’ve discovered some new exchanges: for example check out Kucoin I haven’t had any trouble with it so far
BTC right now moving if it gets above $5700 that should act as support going forward
How will you use crypto when there is no electricity?
If there’s no electricity,
how will you
pump gas
use your credit card
check out at the cash register
make a phone call
text
transfer money
sell stock
does your bank have backup generators?
Throw away your roadmaps. It’s seat of the pants from here.
Corona presents a very real threat to wealth. Government supported markets can’t last forever, but is this when they fail?
How the fuck should I know?
I’m going into Monday 20% short 80% cash, which I think is reasonable.
Did I mention that this is seat of the pants? Well it is.
Hey edge, if I remember correct, you’ve always been big on the us buckaroo? What’s your fallback plan to the if/when/what currency switcharoo?
For the time being the market seems to agree: USD.
If that fails the world is fucked. IMO. I see nothing but bad alternatives.
Thanks kimosabe
Bloomberg: Roche lab has developed a serological test for COVID. The current swab test looks for virus particles in nasopharyngeal secretions, while the new test will look for the development of antibodies to the virus during convalescence. This will provide answers to our virus enigma.
“Serologic diagnostics allow extensive testing of samples from people who aren’t confirmed COVID-19 cases. If people have been exposed and have developed antibodies against the virus, such tests will let public health officials know. This is incredibly valuable information in the fight against a disease that is mild or asymptomatic in many people. In addition to giving a better sense of how many cases we’re missing and COVID-19’s true fatality rate, it could also identify areas where it is spreading more quietly and help direct needed response. Centers for Disease Control director Robert Redfield recently told a Congressional committee that his agency has two tests of this type in development. Their speedy deployment is especially crucial in the U.S., where there simply isn’t reliable information on where the disease is and how many people have it. “
It won’t be ready Tomorrow, and likely too late. And anyway;
The reason why we are lacking testing is simple: Trump doesn’t want it. He doesn’t give a fuck about anything but himself. He wants to control this information for his own purposes.
Coronavirus has been in the US for a few weeks now, maybe a month.
I don’t see a repeat of what’s supposedly going on in Italy here.
Why is that?
If we test a thousand in Brooklyn next wk, quite possible, and 50% come out positive for antibody, then it’s a nothing burger/ common cold, fast end to hysteria gripping markets.
Stay poor, Brother!
That was an eleven year ride almost to the day that could not have been played any better. The longest bull market in history and Fly rides it all. The five or so days at each end of the ride for trend reversal confirmation are the secret sauce that cannot be omitted.
This site is truly unique.
Bank holiday and exchange closure will accelerate panic.
Please note:
This virus threat has been obvious since January. With all the reports out of China in January …then a whole church full of people getting sick in Korea …and the cruise ship infections in February. Yet still, the press didn’t even start to report on it until the last week in February …and only got excited last week.
Recall that large chunks of China were shut down ..yet the financial press here was talking about how their Q1 growth rate might slow …still grow …merely slowing. And our markets reached new record highs in Feb …and Feb puts expired worthless.
Is our collective MSM press retarded? Or is there some entity that gets positioned and only then gives the go ahead to report facts?
In our collective arrogance and hubris (that includes POTUS) we thought it’s peculiar Chinese disease and even laughed at their cultural practices, instead of prepping for the pandemic.
Stay calm still no 50 dead in NYC this morning.
I wonder if the Democrats are still planning on bringing 100 million illegal immigrants into the country and giving them free health care
Its amazing how brain death doesn’t preclude the abiliy to type.
The washingotn post was providing a tracker as early as Jan 22
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/22/mapping-spread-new-coronavirus/
There is no incentive, financially or politically for left-wing non-finacial media to downpaly COVID-19. On the other hand…
It was Fox News and the President that kept saying that this was no big deal. In fact, Trump said that all the press coverage was just a hoax (to amke the virus threat seem bigger).
On February 28.
As for finacail media, it isn’t real to them if it hasn’t affected the stock market. They were jsut frefelcting waht the market was telling them: COVID-19 is not a big deal. Until it was.
No kidding. When China locked down over 700 million people, our markets kept going up. That was idiotic and was my signal to get the fuck out.
Tough one. The market priced a 30% haircut in 2 weeks. We’re also “only” at like 2018 prices.
Even Dalio was caught off guard.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/6addc002-6666-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3
I’m still battling flu like symptoms, 101 fever, as is my 2 year old daughter. Tested negative for influenza. But it’s ok, they assured me there are no confirmed cases in my area, yet would not test us!
Wish you and loved ones get better soon. Please ask your doctor after recovery to order a Roche lab COVID antibody test.
Get tested, hydrate and get meds.
A friend of mine said he thinks he had in in Dec and probiotics helped a lot.
The more I think about it: I think it’s possible I already had it too
I’ve had a cough for about a week, and a fever for a short time.
Consider watching this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIL2FVlaZu4&feature=youtu.be&utm_source=Ki+Science+Customers&utm_campaign=88e531d27a-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_03_09_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8308e7953f-88e531d27a-214997473&mc_cid=88e531d27a
He said if you can only do 2 things: 2,000mg Vitamin C and andrographis – if you can’t find any, let me know. I can send you some – assuming my order shows up Wed.
I haven’t had the flu in over 30 years and maybe 2 or 3 colds (seriously) and am over 65 years old now. Went to visit the grandkids in Manhattan for a few days in mid-Feb. and in the late afternoon the day before I was to leave the chills hit me pretty quick. Ran to the local Rite Aid for Vitamin C and D. Pretty sure I had something and spent the next two days in bed when I got back to Florida.
I figured it was the subway, bus, or taxi rides but who knows
Finally some reality creeping out of DC:
“”On MSNBC’s “Meet the Press” Mr. Fauci endorsed a 14-day “national shutdown” to help slow down the virus. He explained that he has brought it up with the administration, which is generally open to his ideas.
“I think Americans should be prepared that they are going to have to hunker down significantly more than we as a country are doing,” he said.””
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/germany/germany-closing-its-borders/
After medical marshall law will we have a cyber 911 be the next shoe to drop? “China, Russia & Iran team up for a cyber attack. Unthinkable?
Italian lockdown: https://twitter.com/i/status/1238451221851234305
Coronavirus: Wuhan doctors celebrate closure of last temporary hospital after dramatic fall in cases in China. This will happen in the US very soon and Doctors Gupta, Oz and Fauci et al will look like bozos. Truly smart and daring prepare for a rally.
What happens when quarantine is lifted in China?
Everybody goes back to doing what they did pre Corona. We get to find out if new infections/reinfections take place.
That’s a bit obvious.
I think Fly’s point (which I agree with it) is that new infections **will** take place. These infections will leikly be at a slower pace.
As I have said here, it is highly communicable, quarantine could marginally slow it down. Chinese are immune now, a few cases here and there IMHO.
The most important number to find is how many are admitted with respiratory illness in US hospitals compared to multi-year average for this time of the year.
https://twitter.com/asadabukhalil/status/1239206370773069824?s=20
The US gets to find out if 60% of the population truly lives paycheck to paycheck and have no emergency funds set aside. Cable companies, utilities are waiving payments for two months and promising not to turn your shit off. Credit card companies are sending emails saying they’ll work with you if you can’t make a payment. Will they risk raising borrowing limits or prepare for the chargeoffs?
The US gets to find out how many companies are incapable of operating with diminished revenue for a few weeks especially if they are unable to obtain additional credit. Credit crisis anyone?
i’m just passing this info on, I am not a medical doctor in real life or on the internet. Years ago I read about William Burroughs experimenting with massive doses of Vitamin A (500,000 units) at the onset (first sign of soar throat) of a cold/flu. He used this technique for 30 years and stated it never failed him. Now I don’t normally take advice from homosexual junkies, but I have experimented with mega-dosing on vitamin A (not to the tune of 500,000 units) and it seems to work. I can’t remember the last time I had cold/flu symptoms longer than a few days. Please complete your own due diligence, Vitamin A is fat soluble (not water soluble) and your body does not rid itself of excess amounts easily. That said, the Mayo Clinic does recommend Vitamin A supplements for children with measles (a virus).
They also recommend Vit C
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIL2FVlaZu4&feature=youtu.be&utm_source=Ki+Science+Customers&utm_campaign=88e531d27a-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_03_09_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8308e7953f-88e531d27a-214997473&mc_cid=88e531d27a
Some advice I’ve seen is sanitizing credit cards, cash, products bought at stores such as canned food and produce, etc… Walmart has their employees wearing gloves
This should be easy enoough for the vast majority:
1) Don’t use cash
2) Don’t let anyone else touch your credit card (insert it into the chip reader yourself)
3) Touch all public button with your knuckles (pin number, elvators, gas pumps, etc.)
4) Leave you mail/packages (in case the delivery guy has covid-19) outside for as long as practical before retrieivng it
Non-automatic doors can be a big problem, so try to avoid places with those. Maybe gloves that you leave outside?
One more note: gloves only protect the person wearing them, so gloved employees can pass virues between surfaces and customers.
Betting sites are predicting Dow futures to gap down more than 900 points at 6PM.
A bunch of FCMs have raised margins *bigly* (to the Exchange margins, i.e., the most restrictive move possible).
Sunday night massacre is upon us.
The Washington Post has a cool virul simulation model here. It is simplistic, but does a good job visually demonstrating how quarantines and social distancing effect the virus spread:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?itid=sf_coronavirus
Affect is the right verb/word.
It funny how people stopped correcting my grammar and spelling motnhs ago.
I basiclly just type as I go and don’t bother to fix anything unless the meaning is unclear. Did you ahve any trouble understanding my meaning?
Besides 2/3 is a good batting average
(These are from this same page!)
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/03/14/liquidating-long-termretirement-accounts-next-week/#comment-567558
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/03/14/liquidating-long-termretirement-accounts-next-week/#comment-567650
On viruses vs. warmer climates: I have not heard of ANY viruses that get hurt directly by warmer climates (correct me if I’m wrong). Drier climates is a differnt story.
The main reason that the flu&cold season is in the winter is because of reverse social distancing: peopel spend more time indoors, closer together for two reasons:
1) being outside in the cold sucks
2) family holidays: Thanksgiving, Christmas, etc.
Viruses do have a harder time in more humid weather. It bbn is easy to look up the research on that. In fact I have heard that hospitals and schools already had it on their long term radar to possibly install humidifiers that would run during flu season.
I always thought that was an interesting nonintuitive effect of winter. You would think people staying indoors would make it harder for viruses. Italy’s ballooning cases make more sense in that light.
Wrong. The virus spreads person to person, there is more socializing in summer.
Ball games
Summer picnics
family gatherings
weddings
Fairs, theme park visits
Microbes have temp preferences like us. Flu virus likes mod temps, attaches to a relatively cooler part of the body; nasal mucosa. Transmission stops in extremely cold weather.
Strep throat is more common in summer.
No problems admitting when I’m wrong
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/03/080330203401.htm
Wow!
– 127+ comments
– Showtime is Captain
– Fly liquidating
– PPT lowest score EVAH
Bottom… or damn close to it. March 6, 2009 GE Death Spiral and comments were so so negative. Like world is ending, prepping, get your ammo.. all that bullshit.
And here we are again….
But this time it’s different!
Naw it’s just global vs domestic.
More millionaires and billionaires this go around.
Keep those buy lists curated.
We need a new thread.
And we have a new topic for that thread:
“Fed Cuts Main Interest Rate to Near Zero, to Boost Assets by $700 Billion”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-15/fed-cuts-main-rate-to-near-zero-to-boost-assets-by-700-billion?srnd=premium
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-15/goldman-sachs-warns-s-p-500-might-not-bottom-until-2-000?srnd=premium
Hey, how many of our celebrities have died so far? Seems like they had a garden variety cold, got tested, came out positive for COVID19!
I do believe the fed reads your blog. And they have acted! With luck, your exit door just got a bit wider. We’ll find out Monday.
Ben Blunt Bernanke just came out of retirement
I came here to see what the fuss was with all of those comments and Fly saying he was bailing. The bottom is in. We are in recession (I think because it requires two quarters of negative GDP- may only get one). It will be shallow and stocks will see this going forward and with all of this liquidity the bull will start again.
I have been here in 1982, 1987, 2000-02 and 2008. Real fear as seen by these comments meaning the bottom is near. I even recall when JFK got shot (I was a kid but still read the stocks quotes in the paper) and the market got crushed but the economy was strong going in.
The virus is peaking and as the weather gets warmer it will disappear like all of the other ones. Swine was much worse as was the Hong Kong Flu.
Guys
Go look through the archives from 2008 to mid 2009. Comedy gold. March 2009 was the bottom.
Tradercaddy, Devil Dog , Ducatti
How bad can a portion of the population sitting on their ass for a few weeks affect the economy?