Big spike off the jobless numbers. I stopped paying close attention to the numbers when they stopped meaning much to stock prices — but we’re in the ballpark of 33 million unemployed. My guess, we bottom unemployment at 66 million on the same day stocks hit record highs.
Everything is back to normal. WTI is +10% to over $26, gas prices at the pump and SOARING, SAAS stocks are hitting RECORD highs. Things are really great. Heck, look at that new IPO DraftKings, DKNG — filed for shares and still shot higher. Hell, there isn’t even a thing called sports anymore, but alas we are drumming higher.
Now if you’re a cynical fact based trader, this is frustrating beyond belief. I get it — but you cannot let reality get in the way of a little fantasy. This morning I sold some of the stocks I bought yesterday.
Here was my catch.
CWH +6.7%
JMIA +6.6%
NEWR +4.8%
I held onto my inverses, while added three additional stocks to my ledgers. I was strongly considering closing out my inverses and I might still do it — but it looks like the market is basing here and might trade sideways for a few hours or more. In the process of trying to find stocks to buy, I noticed only banks were keeping their highs, and select retail, so I ditched my plans to cover the shorts and be patient.
Option B would be to double down on them, which I really do not want to do. The trend is higher, so betting heavily on the short side would mean I was attempting to find a counter-trend. The timing on those trades are tricky.
As of now, I am 45% cash, with a blend of both long and shorts.
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The unemployment growth should really start to slow as we get close to everyone being unemployed. That has to be worth at least +1,000 S&P points.
We just have to work through that overhead supply.
Through tears he looked on at the lunatic price surge, but it was all right. He had finally won the battle over himself. He had learned to love the FED rally.
Is a “fact based trader” a name someone gives themselves to rationalize their losses? Never heard of that one.
What do you make of this?
“With short-dated futures now signaling negative-rates…the Treasury curve is tumbling …below the lowest 2Y rate in US history.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2y-treasury-yield-plunges-record-low-gold-spikes-nirp-reality-dawns
Tells me the long bond trade has run its course. My latest bond additions have all been in SHY, god help me. Planning to buy a house in the fall. Building cash reserves as long as my major market indicators remain negative.
If we were in a capitalistic econmic system, I would surely agree with you. However, our economic system is a monster that is dependant on leverage and falling interest rates.
If rates start rising, the market starts falling ,the FED starts intevening, and on-and-on we go until we hit ZIRP.
Congress’s spendign is hampered even more by interst rates. Corprate taxes have been lower thatn the *interest * we pay on the Natainla debt for several years. In just 3 short years, 1/4 of federal income taxes will go towards interest rate payments. NThat was CBO as of March 6.
Now factor in $5T of spendign and lower revenues from COVID-19.
Now factor in what happens if interst rates rise.
Hey Alty,
Behold the wheelchair ramp to free money that is TMF.
Time frames.
Nobody buys triple leveraged long dated treasury funds for yield my dear boy.
SPXL, NUGT, GUSH
What are 3x ETFs outperforming TMF today held by Alty Alex?
So I assume that you think the the Treasury bond market is just noise in the scheme of things, and the S&P 500, gold, and oil prices are more indicative of the future state of the economy?
Or is it that you just prefer Buy-and-hold to any thinking at all?
I just follow my algos, bro.
Forgot I’m still holding TQQQ as well
Just pointing out yield is irrelevant.
And soon to be a relic of the past.
Fair enough and fair criticism. My comment yesterday was pure troll.
I will vote again on one condition only.
If they institute the negative vote.
In other words, instead of voting for someone; you can use your vote to vote against them. Then the candidate with the smallest negative count wins!
We have negative interest rates. The time for the negative vote has come!
A good idea, but a more practicla one is adopting Maine’s ranked voting system which would give 3rd party candiates a viable chance.
Big wanker with cankers. I beat you to it Richard wiener
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/05/06/youre-not-hedged-youre-idiot/#comment-572160
“The batter makes contact. It’s a long high ball, the outfielder sprinting to catch up…”
“It’s at the wall (2870)! The outfielder leaps to try and make the catch…”
3rd failure to close the gap, but the market didn’t collapse.
Guess we’ll have to first wait to see how many people lost their jobs tommorrow morning. Maybe it will be “only” 20 million.