NEW TRICKS PRESENTED TO TODAY’S TAPE; A BOUNCE MUST COME SOON OR ELSE CATACLYSM

I was fooled into a series of blunders this morning. Instead of selling out from my profitable position, up 50bps at the open, I bought more — thanks to Bubble stocks rallying hard at the open. It was and still is my belief that if bubble stocks are rallying, a general overall market rally is just beyond the bend.

Instead of enjoying the fruits of my labour, I now labor in the market, down 60bps, not immune to the CATACLYSM that is seeping thru, ever so gently but pervasively, into the market. I have been fooled; but the day isn’t done and I would bet my entire life, as stupid as that is, that we should rally effervescently today like the warm springs of Georgia — bringing joy and fortune to all those involved.

Overall market breadth is DREADFUL. Small caps are down. However, we are in fact approaching oversold and I believe with all of my wit and spirit that we shall rally. I call upon all of the stock gods, both old and new, to make this happen, in order to assist in the building of my Orbital Space Cannon (OSC), ushering in a new era of anger and demise onto this planet — the likes not seen and endured since the Middled Ages.

I am 40% cash, a bit of an insurance policy in the event the Gods ignore my prayers. I will, however, add to my positions throughout the day — should they sink further into the black morass of loss.

All of your PLUG type stocks have been dispatched into hades, where the Gods will torture them for eternity. The rotation is taking a severe turn now, as AAPL and FB gallivant higher in the face of appalling losing in small capped tech and healthcare.

Listen to me, as I am now old and odious looking, it’s over. The time to buy dips has long past and soon you will see a truly horrible spectacle in the form of massive margin calls amongst the cadre of Reddit Retards who opted to poke fun at the suits on Wall. You can never win, and shall never win, and you will soon learn that lesson in the most harshest of terms.

I abided by this tenets and only shed 11bps today, trade a little, booked a few gains — mostly nothing. I am 65% cash, heavily allocated into large cap tech, and think of the market as an organism in transition.

It was fun. It was the most fun I had trading stocks since 2000. The money I made isn’t important, not more than the memories and the feeeeeeeling of certitude. Nothing feels more better to a man than certainty, the confidence to manifest his destiny without fear of retribution. But it’s over now. Best to get back to the gym and train for hard times, as this whirlwind of sell orders readies to heave over and spill guts all over the place.

Cryptos have broken down again and the resumption of the distribution in the bubble stocks has increased to a level that is almost certain to trigger margin calls and a cascading effect in the market, the likes of 2014, reminiscent of a time and of a place that nearly killed me.

You do not want to keep pressing the envelope. What you should want to do is cast aside any notion of success in the bubble world, while embedding yourselves in risk averse assets.

Early this morning I took a look at the tape, hated it, and went to 100% cash. This is easy for me to do, especially when the rallies are too hard fought and the collapses frequent. The next trap will be an oversold bounce, which most will miss because it entails buying into the sinking Titanic gif. If you try to catch the wave as it crests, you’ll find yourselves, well, crestfallen.

Odds are we bounce this week, after a morbid decline. My Bubble Basket is off by more than 3%, and this is becoming all too familiar. This is not a market that can be relied upon. Therefore, and this goes without saying, your best bets are all intra-day, which is also hard to do now with volatility baring down.

We are basing here on low volume, in what can be described as a “boring as fuck tape.” I vacillated all day in a tight range and ended near my lows, +50bps. I am 23% cash and feeeeel exposed to this market — because it’s acting differently. What is different about it is the normal vibes I am getting. This is the way the market used to be prior to the COVID induced ramp.

I don’t have strong convictions here and could only say to you to keep stops tight and positions sizes small and scalp gains as fast as you can. The idea of continuation might be a journey into naivety.

On the issue of Exodus — we are currently closed for new subs and will not open back for a period undetermined. We have launched Stocklabs and will be entering beta soon. After we get thru our beta, we will launch it for the general public.

This is the perfect day to take off. Nothing at all will happen. Bill Hwang is finished selling his $5 trillion book and Credit Suisse is all but wiped out. Markets are doing nothing on incredibly low volume, reminiscent of a jar of lazy molasses spilling over the side of a dining room table onto a plush rug. You will find yourselves cleaning said rug for a long long time should you choose to do it.

I am widely position amongst a pastiche of Archegos names and will add to them should we dip. Mid-afternoon AMAT had sanguine comments during its ‘analyst day’, which caused semis and tech to drop. I don’t care what they said, for I know the certainty of the semiconductor business to be profoundly bullish, rooted in supply shortages. Pricing will improve and margins will expand, leading to high prices.

Inevitably, the market will collapse. But in the meantime, there are higher prices to both achieve and enjoy. My best guess is for the rally to continue, until we’re all tired bored sad fat and bald.

Margin liquidations are a painful thing to endure, if you’ve ever been on that side of the ledger. Having your margin clerk burst thru your sheetrock and into your office with immediate demands for a wire, else get market ordered the fuck out is something I do not wish on my worst enemies.

‘Tis the case with Bill Hwang, lunatic from the nice family office named Archegos.

$CS IS AT MAXIMUM PINK LEVELS *** pic.twitter.com/zRgA6mOp2A

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) April 6, 2021

Credit Suisse is feeling the pangs of their own stupidity, as this blackhole once known as Archegos swallows it whole. I am reminded of innumerable occasions when FORCED LIQUIDATIONS caused disruptions in the tape, only to later on revert back to the mean. The same rules apply here. The stocks Bill was forced to sell will be the biggest winners. The only question is, when?

On the list of stocks to buy is GSX, TAL, FTCH, VIAC, DISCA, IQ and perhaps a bit more. But that’s a start.

I kept my TZA hedge, but have ample longs to offset it for what I believe will be a breakout day for shit stocks tomorrow. We traded without verve for most of the session, until the last 30 mins, where we saw breadth and scale increase. I am pleased with today’s 40bps win, in spite of underperforming markets. Truth is, I was in the wrong stocks, had to adjust, and ended up in profit. Not much else I could do, as the bands were tight all day and the places to trade rips limited.

I do not think the momo stocks will be back for good. But I suspect they’re due for a reprieve.

Cheers.

Top pick: Ethereum

I’m performing as if the market was up 0.2% — because it actually is up just 0.2%. The general indices point to Grande returns, NASDAQ +200, Dow +400 — but underneath the hood is more 2014 esque cataclysms, stocks panged down with the Devil’s Fork.

Breadth is still negative and small caps are getting drilled. I took out a hedge to sacrifice my money to the Gods. Hopefully we swim higher with alacrity from here. But I doubt it. Oil is in the dumps and the retards from Reddit are having their guts strewn across the tape. This market is perfectly designed to destroy the GAMMA SQUEEZE crew, as they leverage out their family offices into oblivion.

NASDAQ is +160, yet many high beta trading fuckers are down. This solidifies by belief that the rotation is going to last longer and be chaotic than most believe. I am barely up in a general tape that looks like a casino win. Meanwhile in the real world, market breadth is just 52%, meaning 48% of stocks are DOWN on this grandiose day.

Strength is found concentrated in industrials, coal and steel plays, crypto derivatives, and of course reopening trades such as movie theaters. I am long AMC — not because movies are back — but because people are so desperate to go out they went to see Kong vs Godzilla — which was fucking stupid.

I am trying my best to avoid murderholes — but the trend is clear and you’d be wise to avoid holding small micro cap piece of shit stocks for too long.

In my younger years a story like this would’ve infuriated me — big sloppy fat cat hedge funders making a mockery of “the market” — messing it up for the rest of us. But now with seasoning on me and a lot more knowledge, I can tell you without equivocation that the events of Archegos aren’t outliers — but the very thing and behavior that drives Wall Street in the first place. People are so upset when they read about a new scandal. They huff and puff and blow their own homes down. You enjoyed Softbank’s gamma squeeze when it happened because you were long stocks. You enjoyed the Fed rigging of the markets, even taking short position on the VIX; but now you don’t like this because “OMG HE USED 500% LEVERAGE.”

Wake the fuck up pal. You’re on the outside looking in. The retail clown trader and his GME squeezes only worked because some fuck head on Wall Street decided to help. The big money is bigger than ever and they can do whatever the fuck they want.

Case in point.

I have long since accepted this is just the way things work around here and no longer threaten to storm the capitol with pitched forks anymore, for the great many injustices committed in front of me and how the double standards are emblazoned into my face without shame. It’s not a personal affront upon my person, but how the system of entitlement works.

You don’t like it? Make a billion dollars of personal wealth, call Goldman and ask for 500% leverage, and lose $110b for your Family Office in 5 days —  just like Archegos —  and then tell me how entitled you feeeeel.