A Special Message From Merlin, Regarding Commodities

Poof. Away with your bullshit disposable income.

–Merlin

As you know by now, iBC has been offline for much of today’s trading session. The reason was IT related.

Jeremy, iBC’s IT guy, went on vacation and left his underling, Vincenzo, in charge of the iBC server farm. In an unbelievable series of events, Vincenzo spilled his bullshit wine and olive oil all over our servers. He then re-doubled the problem by trying to repair the damage himself, using a wrench and bowl of tomato sauce.

Long story short, Vincenzo has been discharged, without honour [sic].

As for today’s trade:

I sold out of most of my [[SMN]]. I can no longer fight this price action. Apparently, inflation is out of control, causing “ag plays” to go dot com on my ass. Shocker.

During the day, I tripled my [[SKF]] positions and raised a significant amount of cash.

Oil is out of control. Do not bet against it. It is on a bee-line for $125.

Didn’t Bernanke say oil would “moderate” at $100?

Finally, I am tempted to go long [[TSO]] or [[VLO]]. However, it is hard to do so when the crack spread is so tight.

After the close, [[TXN]] disappointed, yet again. They always miss. Fuck them.

It’s important tot note the overwhelming bullishness of market participants. Trading against them has always made me money. Timing, of course, is everything.

I promise you the market will swan dive into an empty pool, filled with rat traps, sometime soon. However, in the event some of you enjoy buying into lunacy, I have a few long ideas.

Contrary to popular belief, “The Fly” does have some long positions.

My favorite financial is [[AIZ]]. These pencil pushers sell home insurance, amongst other things, to banks taking possession of foreclosed homes. In this environment, you have to love that business. I’m long from the low 60’s.

In tech, I am long [[AAPL]]. That’s it. I had a monster position in [[RIMM]], but sold it out last quarter. I do not believe there is much upside to AAPL, at these levels. Nonetheless, I will not sell it, since it’s the last great American hope.

A la Cajun, I am long [[GU]]—just because he’s been “space alien-like” with his picks.

In consumer staples, I like [[WBD]]. It’s a Russian dairy company, who phonetically named the company after a tennis tournament. Nonetheless, they are buzzing along. I am a big believer in the theory that says to go long beverage companies, when a country’s standard of living is raised. When indigenous get a few pesos in their pocket, they buy soda, milk, etc. There is a lot of data to support this theory. Go look it up.

At these levels, by the way, I am tempted to start buying [[HANS]] again.

At the moment, I am not long any retail names. I sold [[GME]] two months ago. However, I am looking for entry points into [[ZUMZ]], [[BEBE]], [[AEO]] and [[JCG]].

Within energy, I am long [[UPL]] and [[VLO]]. I love the growth of UPL and the cheapness of VLO. Should basic material expenses subside and prices of oil stabilize, VLO and other refiners will start to rip, once again. If it’s going to happen, it will happen during the summer.

In the drug sector, I am long [[GILD]]. They are the only viable play on Aids, terrible but true. Frankly, I hate the drug sector, but have kept this one because of my ridiculously low cost basis.

I am not long any internet companies, aside from iBankCoin. However, it’s worth mentioning, I am short [[TSCM]].

Finally, I sold out most of my gold holdings. I believe gold will moderate here. Furthermore, I have better places to invest the money. Going forward, the earnings will dictate the direction of the markets, not CNBC breaking news alerts or internet rumors.

Three earnings plays to watch very closely, coming up, are [[AAPL]], [[VMW]] and [[RACK]].

On a pullback, I want to buy [[VMI]], and Vestas Wind Systems.

NOTE: “The Fly” is also long Vestas.

I was bored, so I laser beamed it. Have a personality, will you?

Developing…

[[NCC]] got some financing, 40% below Friday’s closing price.

The plan calls for the investors to pay about $5 a share, according to people familiar with the situation. As a result of the injection, Corsair will hold a 9.9% stake in National City. In 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading Friday, National City shares fell 16 cents to $8.33.

Read full article here.

I can’t wait to get my clean hands on some of these fascinating bank shares. Kind of sweet seeing deals get done so far below closing trading prices. Makes you feel all warm and fuzzy about our wonderful banking system, doesn’t it?

Fly wins again, even when he appears to be losing, badly.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPp3tKK07GU 450 300]

It was a week from rural Romania for “The Fly,” as the biggest bull run in 5 years decapitated much of his year to date gains— and humbled him into eating Lucky Charms cereal.

Looking back, it is true my erroneous bragging upset Mother Market, causing her to punch my face in with brass knuckles.

Nonetheless, I have made my peace with the dumb bitch and will start banking coin, shortly.

During the day, I did many things, which I neglected to report in my idiotic “Fly buy, Fly Sell” posts.

For one, I sold some [[SMN]]. Those evil bastards NEVER go up. It’s a blend of pure death for short sellers. If ag goes up, it goes down. If ag goes down, the gold part of the component buoys shares.

Under no circumstance can SMN trade up. I hate the people who concocted that ETF, with great vigor.

Also, I blew out of most of my gold position, via [[GLD]] and [[DGP]].

With the proceeds, I took advantage to re-weight back into short banks and brokers, via [[SKF]]. And, I bought more [[SRS]]. At the moment, my only b/d short is [[MS]].

Finally, I added to my [[FXP]] position. It’s a funny thing with that asshole ETF. The country in which the components are domiciled (China) is being obliterated with egregious stock market losses, yet here in the states—they are robust.

It’s not like speculators are getting poleaxed in China— big money is. Look at the banks. They are all down 40-50% year to date. In my book, the weakness in China means something.

All of our companies point to rampant consumerism in China— for our bullshit products. If everything is so great, then why is the Shanghai exchange down nearly 50% over the last 6 months?

Off to eat a hotdog.

My double inverse ETF’s are barely down. This rally no longer scares me.

Hell, to get me scared, the market needs to climb another 13,000 points.

I just can’t see myself betting with a loser like Dennis Kneale. As you know, “The Fly” would never do that.

Just so you know, prior to today, I had nominal exposure to [[SKF]]. Today’s purchase under $100 is my first meaningful buy in the fucker, since it was last under $105 a few weeks ago.

However, I did get my balls blown up on [[SRS]].

Forget it. I no longer hate bears. “The Fly” was a little heated this morning for missing some great trades. I will get it all back and more, as always.

Stay tuned.

NOTE: I sold all of my gold today, in order to raise cash.

NOTE II: Watch LIBOR.

In a unprecedented move, “The Fly” has begun eating a giant bowl of Lucky Charms cereal, in order to help turn his luck around.

Developing…