Credit rating boosted to AAA, thanks to a cash infusion of 2 billion goat dollars— from the King of Romania.
Developing…
UPDATE: S&P and Fitch are expected to upgrade “The Fly” to AAA, within hours.
Still Developing…
UPDATE II: “The Fly” may need a bailout, now that he has acquired AAA rating.
Still Developing, pt 2…
UPDATE III: “The Fly” will now begin insuring mortgage backed securities, providing he can get a bailout. Why wouldn’t he get a bailout? He’s AAA rated.
Developing…
UPDATE IV: “The Fly” is too big to fail.
Developing…
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Check closely. The rating was
AAAH!
Monday morning, the U.S. DHS will issue regulations requiring a minimum 40% weighting in financials for every institutional investment fund.
For national security reasons.
I’m assuming you’re referring to Nicolai Ceausescu, the tyrant dictator of Romania for 25 years, who was sentenced to death for undermining the national economy (plus genocide, but that’s another issue).
You shuah lating not “Aaa-so?”
A couple headlines fm Uber Bear Flecks Rap last night:
“Bulls Celebrate End Of Recession Before Admitting We’re In One”
“Goldilocks Files for Unemployment”
“The Next Great Thing Can Clip One’s Wing”
It is rather ironic that on the day when Google stumbled, Microsoft announced its bid for Yahoo. In my opinion, the move is a very smart one for Microsoft and Yahoo. But I think it demonstrates that with respect to technology, even being a monopoly isn’t good enough. Personal computing has changed since the 1990s, when Microsoft ruled the roost. Now, remote or cloud computing is where the world is heading.
Google has shown folks that they don’t need to have all the data on their home PCs, though everyone will always want some data stored there. Social networking, browsers, and search illustrate that the world is now different than what it was when Microsoft was in ascendance. Down the road, something similar will befall Google. (If this can happen to Microsoft, it makes a mockery of folks’ belief that a company like Research in Motion will be a viable entity, say, in five years.) In any case, I thought it was worth noting the lessons demonstrated by Microsoft’s bid for Yahoo — regarding technology, obsolescence, and barriers to entry.
For those of you who think markets go straight to zero during bear markets – fm some old permabears column in barrons today:
“David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch, who consistently comes up with some great stuff, points out, in the 2000-2002 bear market, there were no fewer than 16 rallies of at least 5% in the S&P, each lasting on average about a month, and no fewer than 35 bounces of 5% or more in the Nasdaq (which still managed to wind up losing nearly 80% of its value).”
Let me see if I follow the logic of Fleck’s comments about the MSFT buyout of Yahoo.
The rapid changes in technology means that any company, even an apparently dominant one, could be upended a few years down the road. Therefore, an old tech company paying tens of billions for an oldish tech company is a very smart move?
Seems to me that Fleck’s “lessons demonstrated” indicate that MSFT would have been better off putting hundreds of millions to a few billion into 50 new entities both from outside and within MSFT.
At any rate, the YHOO buyout will be called off. In an emergency board meeting this weekend, MSFT will decide to use the $44 billion to buy a collection of home builders and mortgage lenders.
By a narrow vote, the board willl reject a Bear Stearns proposal to help MSFT leverage the $44 billion into a $450 billion plan to craft a collection of buyouts into Microsoft House, the planet’s homebuilder and mortgage lender.
Fly,
What’s with this piece of shit SKF?
Damn, I KNEW I should have listened to JJ!
JJ is God.
-DT
Check out Navellier – usually a raging bull; pretty conservative this week – says this was massive short-covering and we will re-test the lows: http://www.navellier.com/commentary/weekly_marketmail.aspx
Why you need a bailout if you just got upgraded to AAA? That’s stupid…unless you are planning to fuck everybody like this subprime bullshit.
I just realized, If someone did the exact opposite of what you did this past 2 weeks…Talk about having a killer WEEK! It could be a very profitable strategy.
Cheers!
Juice, Rosenberg’s research is the shit. he’s been spot on and he provides a lot of info that would take me days to gather.
It sickens me to hear all these bulls on CNBC after the mkt closed. how do these morons think we hit bottom when the dow only corrected 15% from its high. that is not a recesssion. the smallest decline in the dow during a recession was 20%. also, this isnt your typical recession so you can’t follow the typical playbook as cramer does. what the fuck are these fucktards talking about when they say you have to be buying retail, financials, homebuilders etc while the fed is slashing rates. every recession i look back on, the market is declining while rates are getting slashed (see 2000-2002). the mkt started going up when rates were going up. if you ask me the bulls are gonna eat bull balls soup in the next week or two.
any of you tea-leaf readers agree with the following logic:
1) Dinallo starts effort to save the industry
2) Thain at Merril (and others) say “too big a problem”; Dinallo says, days later, ok let’s try to save individ companies.
2)Eight banks sign up to try to save #2 ABK
3) S&P/Moody’s both blatantly warning #1 MBI on credit watch negative and will likely get downgraded despite bailout work.
4) Moody’s new model raises ultimate losses on 2006 subprime to 14-18%; but CFC 1/28 reports subprime delinquencies as of YE07 are 33%. i.e., 14-18 is not the end, ratings companies will likely keep raising loss estimates (and insurer cap requirements) into the future.
5) to date, noone has pointed out who’s trying to save MBI (and now-trapped Warburg Pincus)
My conclusions: I know that regulators are more interested in saving the muni bond market than any single insurer. I think they and the banks now have an agenda of “we might be able to save ABK and the industry’s existence, but MBI is too big and too far gone”. If the “good bank/bad bank” model comes about, ABK (or new entity) is the core of good bank. MBI is core of bad bank. MBI CEO’s defense that they meet AAA requirements is still backward-looking based on old loss estimates. When MBI goes or is restructured into oblivion, Buffet picks up some of the slack. Banks take more hits, insurance market survives, world does not end (except for MBI investors).
Favor MBI puts over ABK. and SKF for upcoming sentiment flop-flip on financials.
Hedge fund manager Broker A Fly, had to sell his yacht and jet plane last week after wrong-way bets on financials.
“Just because I lost money doesn’t mean I will quit, no way,” Fly, who sold his boat “I Bank Coin” and Gulfstream IV, said in a telephone interview from an undisclosed location.” Prices have spiked and this is the best shorting opportunity I’ve seen in my career.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anEgTK3aK4gs&refer=home
Paying:
I like your “progression” but I’m just not convinced on your survivor bias. It’s not a coin flip, but someone could switch the names without too much struggle.
That could play hell with your bets.
Fuck you Moody’s. “The Fly” is up 12% YTD.
Breaking Breaking NEWS!:
Jim Cramer’s nose fell off due to a mountain of powder – sell the banks!
Navellier sounds like a guy overweight cash who missed the train as it left the station. He’s praying for a retest, but I doubt he gets it.
To characterize the rally as short covering is disingenuous. On Friday, Advancers vs Decliners were over 3:1. Up volume vs. Down volume was an amazing 5:1. Those stats suggest alot of natural buying.
The Bank index has now rallied 28% off of recent lows, the Homebuilders 59%, Retailers 25%, Transports 19%, and the Broker/Dealers 25%.
The 3:1 advance/decline & the 5:1 volume is probably just the oposite of the 1:3 a/d line and the 1:5 volume you were getting before during the meltdown. Now they are just squeezing the juice out of the shorts. All the sectors you state that rallied heavily are the same ones heavily shorted. Looks like basic market manipulation to me.
Again I would be dumbfounded if this anything more than a bear market rally. Remember we just started getting the bad retail numbers, the bad job numbers, and the bond fiasco. You have the Feds cutting rates like there is no tomorrow and housing melting down. If the decline at the beginning of the year was it than I will let Woodsheder put a band around my balls.
LOL @ Marketraider.
Please do not make me do that.
Pud- where are the new leaders? How come the IBD100 was DOWN for the week last week?
Look, you’ve got turds rising to the surface. Turds only rise when the toilet gets flushed. As the short squeeze ends, you are going to be faced with a decision- do I buy this dip, or not?
As for “natural buying” I think you are grasping at straws. I know of no way to determine natural buying from short covering by examining the A/D and the UP/DOWN.
Pud, don’t get me wrong though. I’m glad you’ve bought this bottom, and are making $. I just think you are going to be shocked to see what happens next, when the momo wear’s off, and the bad news continues.
Pud, I do not know how long this bearfuck of a rally lasts. I even saw about ten shoppers at the house they put up for sale accross the street. I think those two are interconnected in a tryly stupid way. I got scorched in my doub inverse etf’s, however crm and stupid shoes shorts are same place as they were two weeks ago. I do have long positions, and would like to add more, however not at these prices. Things will now play out more slowly than they would have, however, I am still not going on vacation, because one fuck up, and these cows are going to run off a cliff.
Due to recent AAA upgrades TheStreet.com has been infused with cash and thus “upgraded” their website. Cramer could not be reached for comment but sources quote him as previously saying: “BUY BUY BUY I am going to make tons of cash as we are going to new highs.” When asked about the recent credit crunch Cramer responded, “I have not heard about this, who is spreading these lies?”
Woody:
The two indicators I talked about showed very broad market participation. The assumption I made is that market participation would be narrow if the rally was mostly from short covering.
After reading your response, I realize I made a bas assumption since so many people use index ETFs when they turn bearish on the whole market and covering index ETF shorts would be consistent with broad market particpation. My bad.
Calvino, I agree it seems like we’ve climbed too far, too fast. I thought the very weak prints in the initial jobless claims and the non-farm payrolls provided the perfect excuse to take stocks down. Instead, they went higher both days, so who knows when the pullback will come.
Woody,
Best way to determine whether or not this is a short covering rally is to see if the stocks with the largest short interests, (i.e homies and financials) have rallied the most.
And yes, they have. So I’d agree with you that this is largely a short covering rally.
However, the coal sector seems to be legitimately on fire.
-DT
DT- screening for coal stocks as we speak. I may post on what I find.
Wood-
ACI and BTU. What say ye?
ACI has b.t.f.o. and BTU has mojo and is reversing to the upside. Both look like buys.
china stopped coal exports, that’sthe btu rally
testing