iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,866 Blog Posts

Fuck the Banks, part 3!

“The Fly” is quite pleased to see [[WM]], [[LEH]], [[WB]], [[WFC]], [[ABK]], [[COF]] and [[MBI]] shit the shower.

Last week, the dumbest possible money was piling into banks, as if those fuckers were going to new all-time highs. Cramer was exclaiming, going into recessions, the market goes up in a straight line, with hardly any pullbacks.

In short, my head was spinning, thinking, “how could everyone be so gay”?

None of the above is true. In the past, recessions riddle investors with “fuck you, you’re dead” losses. With regards to timing: typically, the market bottoms out after unemployment reaches 6%—providing the recession is mild.

With unemployment at 4.9% and the economy slowing, you have to be out of your fucking mind to “go long and strong” up at these levels.

Again, without a doubt, I feel the market will trade 10-15% lower in 2008.

On the long side, right now, I like [[CLX]], [[CMO]] and [[AIZ]].

AIZ sells property insurance to banks taking possession of foreclosed homes.

Very nice (Borat accent).

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31 comments

  1. chivasontherocks

    Wood,

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

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  2. chivasontherocks

    Wood,

    as you can see the bear market of 1990 lasted 10 wks.

    it is also a period very simalar to this one. the simalarities are

    1- consumer led recession

    2- real estate collapse because of savings and loan crisis.

    3- brazil and argentina close to default

    4- money center banks- fear that some of the them might not make it. citigroup required the investment of the saudi prince

    5- bail out of savings and loan industry. cost of bailout 300 – 500 billion. back in those days that was a lot of mula. ( resolution trust corporation )

    i was around back then and the fear was pretty intence

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  3. bulliSHIT

    if anyone thinks the day after MLK was the bottom they are crazy. all the signs point to recession and stocks don’t typically bottom until 6-months into a recession which would be July if you think the recession started at the beg of the yr.

    take this bear rally for what its worth, cock the short selling trigger and fire away.

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  4. The Fly

    1990 was nothing. Not even a good compare.

    Ducati will say, we are more like 1930.

    I’ll just say, we are more like 73-74.

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  5. chivasontherocks

    Fly,

    1974- 48% from top to bottom

    1990- 20% from top to bottom

    so far from top to bottom we have done 18% +

    Fly, why would you say tell us retards? just trying to be informative. if you rather for me not to post, i will follow your wishes.

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  6. SaNTa

    Fly,

    Do you have enough cash to buy a Russian sub yet?

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  7. Woodshedder

    Chivas, that is the same chart I posted last night, except mine looks cooler 🙂

    I’m not sure what you want me to make from it?

    My point is that throughtout history, stocks find resistance near the 50 day avg while in a correction. The action today is textbook in regards to 50 day resistance.

    I’m not saying the 50 day won’t be retaken. It will. But I don’t believe it will be in February.

    As for the fundamentals, really, they don’t mean much to me. When I combine technicals and fundamentals, I get confused. Right now, the technicals are saying bear market rally- period.

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  8. CubsRock

    He was referring to people like me who have no idea what it was like then.
    Post on.

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  9. PleaseKillMe

    I’m long banks, but only small banks. Lower rate means lower raw materials cost.

    These are the banks that never got invited to the high school jock party (subprime). So they sat home on a Saturday night watching Show Time at the Apollo. The jocks became truck drivers, but the stay-at-home guy went onto college and became something. Maybe he even started his own blog.

    It’s over for the big guys.

    BulliSHIT, we are never wrong on our analysis of the hindsight.

    Fly, one down day and it’s already a reversal? Maybe today was a correction given last week was the biggest gaining week in 4 years.

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  10. chivasontherocks

    Wood, sorry posted wrong one and can’t get right one on. if yougo to that same where it says select range, select start date and end date. use dates for start 01-01-1990 and end date 12-31-1991
    you will be amazed.

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  11. The Fly

    Chivas:

    Quit citing top to bottom.

    Cite YTD numbers.

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  12. The Fly

    Pleasekillme:

    May your entire net worth be lost in WM. God willing.

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  13. chivasontherocks

    Fly, when people measure mkt declines and severity of bear mkts, its done from top to bottom, which has nothing to do with money managers measuring yearly performance versus the indexes.

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  14. Mushroom Stamp

    Fly, what was so surreal about your Super Bowl Party? For me it was watching Goliath get stomped on live tv.

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  15. Juice

    The recession is back on.

    Tune in tomorrow for updates.

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  16. CAP

    The Fly Says:

    Pleasekillme:

    My your entire net worth be lose in WM. God willing.

    English please ?

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  17. The Fly

    Chivas:

    Watch your back. You are now on my hit list.

    Should you find yourself near and empty elevator shaft, be sure to wear a parachute.

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  18. The Fly

    Cap:

    Liar!

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  19. CAP

    “near and empty elevator shaft”

    ??????

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  20. chivasontherocks

    Fly, i am old enough to be your phucking grandfather, and as such, if that makes you happy, go right ahead. lol.

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  21. CAP

    My conclusion from the above is that Fly is a Korean or possibly Guatamalan immigrant who is compensating for his poor English skills via an English language dictionary that was made in India.

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  22. The Fly

    Fuck you Cap.

    Proper English is not required in the comment threads.

    Read up on your blogging rules, fuck face.

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  23. The Fly Buster

    Mr. Fly,

    You have won this battle but you have not won this war.

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  24. FOOK MI YUNG

    Mistah Fry . Plopah Engrish skirrs vely impohtant requihment fo brogging. Engrish is most widry spoken ranguage in entiah wohld. 1 Biryon Chinee Peeper vely selious about reaning Engrish.

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  25. alphadawgg

    “I’m not saying the 50 day won’t be retaken. It will. But I don’t believe it will be in February.”

    Wood–
    What do you base that on?

    ….curious to know what your crystal ball is saying (he says facetiously).

    Seriously, I think you’re a smart guy and a good trader.

    It’s nice we have these discussions and friendly disagreements. It makes us better. If I’m wrong I sure would like to know it. Whatever helps me bank coin.

    I’d rather know I’m rich, than think I’m right.

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  26. jeff -

    http://www.zshare.net/download/71990996d17ba7/

    Read this!

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  27. Woodshedder

    Alpha- I’m still at work…can’t stay on here long. I’ll get you a more specific answer this evening.

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  28. JJ

    CAP… haven’t you ever heard of ebonics??? Well that’s what’s used in blogs boy.

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  29. alphadawgg

    Fook Mi Yung, are you related to Suk Mai Dong? I haven’t seen him around in a while.

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  30. Neil in SC

    I have been watching COFgo up while everyone but JC has been waiting for the crash. DSL has been referred to as a “Zombie.” NUTS NUTS NUTS. Am short and will remain that way until I see the ashes finish smoldering.

    Catching the housing stocks on my puts now. How could they have gone up when the reported losses of .5BIL to 1BIL? Months ago even JC was talking about a number of them going bankrupt. Nothings changed for the better.

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