Half In

With the sale of my largest position, DECK, and smaller purchase of TDC, I am now 50% cash/50% long. The market looks like shit, but I haven’t been hurt during this decline. As a matter of fact, I missed the majority of the decline, while in cash. And, I was able to cherry pick some good stocks that bucked the trend, going up in a down tape.

So, I can afford to risk a little here, waiting for a rally. Truth be told, I am tempted to go long some gold and silver stocks here. However, I am refraining from doing so, just for the sake of keeping it light.

Although I’ve been successful at managing risk during this period, I’ve been a little antsy over the headline news and would prefer, simply for the sake of quality of life, to not have too much equity exposure at this time.

Some of my new positions, FLS and TEX, are down since I bought them. My line in the sand for all new positions is -5% to -10%, with exception to GSVC because of the nature of their business and small float.

WNR is trading off, following MPC’s earnings. Again, in my opinion, there is no comparison between the two companies. WNR has run up a lot in recent weeks, so I would not be shocked to see it sell off on good news. However, I am fairly confident they will report solid results, so—for me—it’s worth holding.

Finally, VXX is going up, hitting my put position and XIV. I am giving the VXX time to soil itself, as it always does. Right now the market is for shit, so don’t expect miracles. My current thesis is “wait for the bounce,” so holding VXX puts a little longer meshes with that frame of thought.

I started a new position in TDC.

Disclaimer: If you buy TDC because of this post, the President, for no apparent reason, will veto the debt ceiling bill. And, you may lose money.

I sold out of DECK.

I am officially up 120% on my DECK 92.5 calls. Believe me, trading options is not as easy as I make it look. Throughout the years, I’ve definitely lost more than I’ve made. Nevertheless, I am making up lost ground rather quickly these days.

The market is weak due to Italian and Spanish bond spreads blowing out versus German. I don’t see how this will be resolved amicably. I was discussing these important matters with my wife last night, who knows nothing about finance. Her strong recommendation was for Europe and the U.S. to “take their medicine” and restructure their debt. I tried to explain to her how that would mess up the status quo and how I would prefer the old can kick. Then she retorted, “why, so our children will have to deal with these issues later?”

I find it funny that someone, who knows nothing about finance or how the debt crisis is proceeding, could be so confident about what needs to be done, yet global policy makers are juggling balls while their respective countries get burned.

As much as I want things to continue “as is” because it’s convenient for me, I suppose it cannot. Eventually, hard decisions, by brave people, are going to have to be made. Everyone will take a hit, no matter what. However, we will be better for it later, after the losses are taken and things are “reset.”

For now, we will continue the charade, making believe the banks are solvent, until the tipping point. For Europe, that tipping point is a lot closer than people think. No algorithm will be able to predict failure, so you’re gonna have to use intuition and common sense going forward.

In the meantime, I am banking stupid coin on DECK here, as it is my largest position. A sharp rally is coming. We just need a spark to get this car, made from dynamite sticks, going again.

I am certain you find my candor to be both refreshing and vexatious all at the same time. I sit here, fireside, smoking both a pipe and a cigar, mostly for pleasure and to irritate Mrs. Fly, while gobbling down unhealthy portions of single malt scotch. As I flick my ashes into the fire, I imagine each ash is an American congressman, sent to his own private incinerator. The fact that I’ve been forced to watch CSPAN for more than a week makes me want to become a rebel leader, financing armed revolt against my local garrison.

But no, I am an honest tax paying citizen, just like the rest of you, trying to live my life as comfortably and seamlessly as possible. The big difference between being desolate poor, skate boarding off vacated refrigerators, and rich as fuck, is the ability to not waste time (no gekko). I don’t need to haggle with asshats over prices or worry about getting the #1 or #5 meal at Mcdonald’s. If I wanted to, I could splurge for both, AND MORE. Believe me, I am completely and utterly grateful that my genetic code came out better than my peers, as it enables me to outstrip them every step of the way.

While we are sitting here together, quietly chatting about world events, politics and money, I will let you in on a little secret. Are you ready?

The secret is, you shouldn’t be so cross with me over your lack of emotional fortitude. Look not to my flaws as a teacher, but look within your inabilities to be a good student. I said that shit in a Japanese accent, so you know.

I’m not entirely sure I am making the right moves here, staying long into carnage. I’ve made my career using a certain set of disciplines and standards that have proven to be enormously beneficial for myself and my family. I am using said ideals right now and you can share the wisdom, via The PPT, if you choose to do so.

The reality is we are OVERSOLD. As a matter of fact, if I wasn’t so afraid of our ruling elite, I’d be 90% long right here. But, I’m up about 16.5% for the year, into turmoil. It would be feebleminded of me to discard risk management in the middle of summer, in the midst of grave uncertainty. Either way, I will gain more than 30% this year; you can count on that. And, furthermore, I will expand my domain into several new geographic locales, where the iBC ruling guard will oversee FOXCONN like mechanical precision, all thanks and praise to The Grand Recursive Order Of Knights Of The Lambda Calculus.

My pipe is just about done and I am heading back into the parlor for late night cup of Earl Gray. Sleep well and dedicate a prayer to your majestical creator, with the explicit intent to better the equity prices of my largest positions: DECK, WNR and GSVC, as payment for this intimate, heartfelt, fireside.

If a client came to me and said “Fly, I have $30,000 for you to manage. Will you please help?” I’d have no choice but to laugh in his face, throw wine on his mustache and challenge him to a “death match” inside of a phone booth lined with metal spikes.

People from the internets: I NEVER want to hear about your trials and tribulations. I do not care if you are having a difficult time reading this tape, because I’m not.

See, I’m on fucking fire here, banging out one hit after another. They call me “The Hit Factory.” While sharing my views and trades here on iBC, you need to exhibit proper decorum by not expressing your small minded opinions. It makes for poor spectacle and only highlights the shallow depths of your cognitive thinking.

I challenge you to watch me very closely and witness greatness. It is rare for you to witness such things, in a country filled with mediocre fuck ups. I am exactly what this country needs right now, greatness through showmanship, coupled with extreme acts of random and egregious violence.

The VXX is dropping, despite grandiose calls of apocalypse.

The Italians are throwing meatballs at one another and the Spaniards are shoveling large quantities of paella down their skinny necks. Yet, here we are rallying hard off the lows.

The bearshitters have attempted to derail this market for many years, only to fail and drop into tar pits lit aflame.

I am not buying here, but I am not fucking around either. I am long VXX puts, DECK calls, WNR calls in my personal and long a variety of “well to do” companies for managed.

In short, I fucking fade you and your edgeless position. The rubberband is pulled back to the extreme. If you dare stand in front of it for too long, you will be smashed to pieces by large boulders and cinder-blocks of cement.

I’ve noticed emotions are running high these days, especially amongst the cabin class historians. Here on iBC, you like to throw meatloaf at one another, supporting one ideology over another. Case in point: many of you left of center readers are appalled by the words of Senator Gint. You disagree with his politics and extrapolate a whole bunch of shit from that, most of which is entirely untrue. I know Mr. Cement Head and he is one of the nicest, most honest, people you will ever make acquaintance.

Back in the early Bush days, I was a political ideologue too, fervently against all who thought differently from me. One day, while expressing my view points, alienating good friends of mine in pointless arguments, it dawned on me that none of my debating was making me money. As a matter of fact, my fervent support for “freedom ketchup” was holding me back from making money in Heinz, if you get my drift.

Although sometimes my ideologies surface when emotions are high, the truth is I really couldn’t give a fuck about politics. It is the sandbox of retards and men who opt to waste their lives being groupies for dishonest people.

All joking aside, let’s get back to sharing some money making ideas, and tune out the noise. It will never make you any money and you will regret wasting such valuable time, down the road. At the end of the day, we all want to eat, drink and have a few laughs, no?

Into the debt ceiling vote, I remain steadfast, 60% long, 40% cash. Should we dip to 11,800, I will add to positions. For the most part, despite the sell off, I am pleased with today’s action, for my stocks.

At the present, my top two holdings are WNR and DECK.

Okay, we have European markets spiraling lower, due to Italian bank fears. In addition, people are worried Congress will “TARP FUCK” us with a debt ceiling vote gone bad. The ISM were disappointing. However, the economy has been vomiting on itself for awhile now. The truth is, we need some more free money bitch. Like crack addicts, the markets needs that good Bernanke shit, in order to get us going again.

Fuck all of the fears of inflation, if I might be so bold. Should we let things roll down hill, the deflation will be so ridiculous, you’ll be coerced into sawing off your own heads. That’s how painful it will be.

Going into Jackson Hole, like a hooker looking for her pimp, ALL EYES ON THE BEARDED CLAM.

Let me be clear (NO OBAMA), should Bernanke sit on his hands and watch us melt the fuck down, I am a 10x seller of this market. Should he implement QE3 or Congress allow corporations repatriate assets back into the US, tax free, I am going gorilla long to the upside. Everything you see now is simply child’s play. No one gives a shit about 8/1/11 @ 10:43am. Only pikers are relying on today to set the tone. The real money will be made from September through January.

Don’t get your brains twisted into pretzels. Go eat a fucking sandwich or two, chill out, and try to exhibit a semblance of patience, you ADD addled misfit.

Oh well, so much for the big fucking rally. Everyone with a Zeeco account sold the news and now here we are dealing with the aftermath. My gut says this sell off is a headfake. However, the aggressiveness of this train derailment is infectious. To me, jumping onboard the “sell the news” crowd is the most reprehensible act of non-violence one could possibly undertake.

The ISM numbers (big miss) will be blamed for the sell off. However, the truth is, every dicksucker with a series 7 license is trying to outsmart one another.

All in all, this is the reason why I am 60% long and not 100%. For now, I will let the dust settle and focus my efforts on real tangible moves, all pertaining to the arts of upside earnings surprises.