Fireside Ashes from My Pipe

All of my accounts are near all-time highs. People are happy, fat, suckling off of whores, bored of decadence. Men I know buy cars for the price of middle income homes, not to brag, but because they can. I like to think of myself as an investor in time, betting on the prospects of others, for better or for worse. I am a frugal man, who only spends money when it’s required; and I never let the caprices of my business create erroneous spending habits. There are times, granted, when my superfluities lead me to spend a good $5,000 on weekend fun; but it’s all in good taste and that amount of money is nothing but a pittance. I have modest desires with regards to orbital space cannons and the establishment of fortress cities in offshoot corners of the world.

I also realize there is a great dichotomy between people like myself and others, struggling to make ends meet. I don’t feel sorrow for anyone because every man has to make his mark. If I was out on hard times, I would expect the same indifference from all of you. There is no need to nurse a broken spirit; it needs to be repaired through the fire of hardship. I won’t delve into platitudes regarding what this country was built upon. It’s too cliche at 1am in the morning on a Friday night. But if you are enduring hard times, just know that others, including myself, have been there and have not only survived, but flourished. There is never a reason to feel dejected or morose, unless of course you have psychic abilities and already know how your story ends.

The best thing that ever happened to me, aside from the birth of my three children and being born, was getting fired, by some fat shlub, early in my career. It took a little bit of time and dedication to exact my revenge; but I accomplished it severely– and he felt the heat from the fire of my soul when it happened. Some people break under pressure and get swept under the rug, others build skyscrapers with the shattered pieces.

Fuck it. I just loaded up on MWW. My foot is now firmly pressed down on the gas, heading for a crevasse, because I have a nitrous oxide engine and I can make it to the other side.

Don’t look now but GSVC is likely to spiral higher and soon. Remember, Facebook is going to file iPO and when they do, people will race to own GSVC, as they own FBOOK is the private markets. Before GRPN and ZNGA ipo’d, GSVC ran 25%+ each time, then collapsed after the emotional roller coaster climaxed. I expect the stock to trade north of $18 the day before the FBOOK ipo. The play is to accumulate from now until then and liquidate one day prior to ipo.

Look, I am made from win. Even when “The Fly” loses, he’s winning. Shit is out of control at Le Casa del Fly. The money keeps rolling in and it’s never gonna end. On a separate note, the boys over at 12631 are hitting homeruns, at a ridiculous clip. Go check them out.

The very essence of how I am positioned now is to profit from the pain felt by unworthy short sellers. I’ve taken it upon myself to be long stocks with bountiful short positions. Bet against me…lose your house.

I added to my MWW position.

I gather you will be drinking from tiny piccolo bottles of wine this weekend, in order to celebrate the week that past. So you know, “The Fly” will be guzzling from melchior sized (30 litres) jugs of ambrosia, with a chest full of pride for the gains that have been taken. As told to you before, 2012 will be the year of “The Fly”, with nothing but joyous occasions and perverse stock market gains in store.

We all know the market has to pull back. It’s not a question of if but when. Please refrain from throwing yourselves into lit fireplaces when this occurs. It is 100% natural and welcomed by true market participants. In this market there are three types of players: the degenerate day traders, speculators, and finally, big dicked investors. The short term moves are dictated by degenerates and soft nosed speculators. But over the long term, both degenerates and speculators alike fall under the auspices of fundamentally minded investors. Meaning: eventually, the chart chompers get tossed into open manholes and the people who know how to read a balance sheets sit on thrones, drinking from chalices made from diamonds and rubies.

If you find yourself getting whipsawed by the market, perhaps it’s time for a change in philosophy, no? Maybe it’s time for you to consider dollar cost averaging into a core group of stocks, in order to moderate your frenetic mannerisms. Trading in and out is not for everyone and if this is not your primary occupation; dare I say, without the explicit help from seasoned veterans, you are climbing a hill that is slippery, treacherous, and nearly impossible to conquer for the average pleb.

Natural gas is going to zero and people don’t wear shoes when the weather is warm. BP went out of business after the gulf oil spill and CCL will never float a boat again. NFLX was going out of business and now they are rising from the dead. When looking at things through the narrow scope of a short term trader, fatalism reigns supreme. Stick to what you know and avoid jumping to conclusions.

As for me, I will look for new opportunities, but keep my cash levels above 20%. I find it hard to hedge in a market that has upward momentum–which is why I sold TZA yesterday. I’ve been through the craziest markets, managing money professionally since 1997. It never gets easy, but it does get familiar.

Top picks: DECK, FSLR, MWW, SODA
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jY6b1DdSCwk&feature=related 603 500]

Truly, this is hilarious stuff. Not only are we disallowed from drilling for our own oil rich properties, but now, Obama is against transporting oil from Alberta, Canada to Cushing, Oklahoma, all the way down to Houston–where it is needed most. This singular decision, when you break it down, is without a doubt at odds with traditional interpretations of reason and against the will of the American people. Obama is the Manchurian candidate.

So instead of transporting oil from Canada via pipeline, Obama will have it shipped in from Venezuela or Saudi Arabia. You do realize that much of the oil to be transported via Keystone would have originated from the Dakotas, don’t you? Are you aware of the fact that N and S Dakota might have more oil than Saudi Arabia, just waiting to be tapped into? Yet, instead of exploiting this resource, as a nation, we’ve fucked ourselves in the back of a jam sandwich.

Remember when the Seaway Pipeline reversal news fucked refinery stocks–sending me bouncing around crazy at my local mental health facility? The pipeline was sold and Enbridge announced they would magically divert all of that oil from Cushing to Texas, which in turn raped crack spreads and led to a collapse of the WTI-Brent crude spread. Well, ever so quietly, that reversal magic has been delayed until June. Couple that unfortunate news with the Keystone rejection and we have ourselves a Mexican standoff–where America loses and does so without style or pizzaz. Without that extra oil from Canada, the glut of crude will remain at Cushing and crack spreads are poised to recover. Plus, this pipeline fiasco all but ensures that no pipeline will ever be constructed again in this stupid country–reminiscent of our new refinery construction aversion.

Have a look at 321 crack spreads since the Seaway Pipeline news crushed spreads.

Impressive no?

Even better, WNR is 33% hedged at around $27 for the entirety of 2012 and 25% hedged for 2013. The company will report an obscene profit on their hedges– and should spreads recover in full– the stock is going to rip tits, mustaches and blow out brains– making people rich in the process. The companies in the best position to profit from widening spreads are MPC, HFC, CVI, DK, WNR and ALJ.

This has been a very hard trade–due to roller coaster-esque volatility; but I haven’t lost money trading WNR yet. The stock has recovered a great deal from recent lows and is a buy on dips, in my opinion. Although the Keystone denial is a tough loss for the average American; I am not part of that class and take an obtuse position against my neighbor, as any proper oil man would, with the explicit intention–motivated by unparalleled greed– of benefitting from this most ruinous event.

Milk or be milked. $4.00 gasoline by June.

I lost a little today because of FSLR. But that’s okay because the market will trade up another 40 tomorrow. Since the new year began, I’ve been bankrolling millions while having less than aggressive exposure to stocks. The moves have been powerful and it is making me a believer. It’s not just the fact that stocks are trading up; I am not naive. European bond auctions are going swimmingly and yields have dropped. From my vantage point, the ball is in our court and we’re in an election year.

Placate the masses and afflict pain onto others is the motto. Watch out Iran. Before the year is out, they will likely park some tomahawks for Obama inside of their palatial gardens.

Here are the facts:

Economic data is improving and BAC isn’t going out of business. It’s a start, no?

Some German official is trying to cut subsidies on solar using a monthly schedule, as opposed to the current bi-annual. The result is absolute elevator cord snap trading action in solar stocks, including FSLR. I knew going in there were two sides to the sword. Yesterday the stock was going Donkey Kong, throwing barrels at the shorts below. Today, it’s getting mudstomped. It is the life of a speculator; live with it or quit.

With today’s additions of both SFLY and SODA to the old portfolio, it’s official: I have compiled an all-star list of companies, most hated by short sellers, almost on a universal scale. Why have I opted for this obtuse course of action, in light of today’s solar meltdown, is beyond me. Nevertheless, the market is in the punishing mood, so I gather we can proceed to check the shorts with a hockey stick like rally for a few more days.

Back to FSLR: I will not buy more. It will either rebound from here or trade lower and force me to cut losses.

My cash position is now around 20%.

I added to my MWW position and started new ones in SODA and SFLY.

Disclaimer: If you buy these stocks because of this post, the next time you are in a calash it will fall victim to an errant boulder and fall off a cliff. And, you may lose money.

Sold it out for 15% loss.

2011 was so 19 days ago. The idea that we will trade down because of European debt or a staggered US recovery is simply wrong. Do you want to know why it’s wrong?

Answer: because it’s not 2011.

Back in the destitute days of 2011, investment managers lamented over balance sheets and overwhelming debt burdens. Now they just look at that shit and eat potato chips. They can’t hear the shorts anymore because the chips are crunching loudly in their ears. People are eating pickles and playing with ham sandwiches. Life is good again and the shorts are on the run, scared to death of serial killers stalking them for their skin.

Everything goes up. Whether we are talking housing or NFLX, investors want a piece of that action. Semis and fiber stocks are stabbing short sellers in the face, whilst snorting loooooooong lines of uncut cocaine. Obama has it going on and will be elected for another illustrious term, effectively decapitating the GOP into an austere faggot box (no offense to guy guys of course).

As for me, I am interested in DMND because it’s nuts. So the company is running a fucking walnut mafia, what are you going to do about it? Exactly. It’s not like they have exposure to some sort of fucked up Walnut-Peacan derivative trade gone nuclear. They will simply whack a few people, pay off some bribes and the stock will rally. I’m also long FSLR because Europe is back and so is Obama.

Ladies and Gents, it’s time to forget about the year of 2011 and embrace the essence that is 2012, which is winship.