Tonight’s Watchlist is Tomorrow’s Trash Can

I constantly create elaborate watchlists at night, only to completely ignore them the next day, in favour of “the flavour of the day.” Am I the only one who does this?

I am part impulse, part plot. But my impulsive side always wins out, tossing the plotter into the proverbial ‘fag box.’

Before I share tonight’s work, I want to tell you that I know a thing or two about the Wolf of Wall Street and there is nothing redeeming about it. Maybe before the movie comes out I will tell you about my early experiences at a certain brokerage firm that was littered with Stratton Oakmont hucksters. You wouldn’t believe it if you didn’t live it.

That’s right, the gimp is back and stronger than ever.

My stocks did well today, as I managed a 2.1% gain, despite the tepid move in IMMR. Frankly, IMMR is a whore, but I am a patient man. I can hold my breath a long, long time.

Rejoice and celebrate the gains. We are due for a pullback, but shall line up some solid trades nonetheless.

Also, and this is very important: pay attention to what The Option Addict, as he’s on fire. He’s a top shelf stock picker, with unbelievable timing on his entries. Within a few weeks, iBankCoin intends to launch a premium service, headed by OA. It’s going to be killer.

I sold some of my FWM position, locking in a 10% gain. I am contemplating buying HOV or adding to AMBA–but my urinal shadows are telling me “kid, you’ve had a good run, now go home and eat a hero.”

A great man once said “The Dude abides.”

“The Fly” will heed this advice and ‘chillax’, as some of you younger types like to say–long, conservatively, leveraged at just 118%.

This rally is all about Ben and his proclivity to add liquidity into the system. A few weeks ago we believed he was going to take away the punch bowl. Today we all believe the party will continue because the economy isn’t strong enough. Hence, there is great irony in this rally. It has all of the trappings of a blow off top.

I am not liquidating, just yet, because I don’t have anything better to do with my capital. Am I going to put it into bonds or cash? No, I’d only do that if I felt a huge decline were imminent. If the market sells off from here, I know it will be shallow–because the economy is weak and Big Ben has my back.

Today’s biggest winners are the names that dropped the hardest when we thought the Fed was going to ‘taper’: gold, silver, homebuilders, commodity related stocks, even REITs.

Today’s prevailing wisdom is TLT is going higher and rates are going lower. Therefore, inflation is likely to occur and we all must prepare for the $100 tomato again.

God, sometimes I really hate how simple this business is. The essence of Wall Street is imbued with infantile decision makers.

That’s why this is a young’s man game. To trade without fear is a powerful thing. The old men in wheeled chairs are too busy protecting their assets in Tootsie roll, as the 20 something year old punks kill it in soon-to-be insolvent concept stocks. The game has been the same for over 100 years, only the players change.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday the central bank will likely keep at least some of its easy-money policies going “for the foreseeable future.”

Noting that unemployment is still too high and inflation too low, Bernanke said, “both sides of our mandate are saying we need to be more accommodative.”

He spoke about Fed policies in a Q&A session after a speech in Cambridge, Mass., to the National Bureau of Economic Research.this

Bernanke rattled stock and bond markets last month when he said the Fed likely will reduce its stimulus later this year and end it by mid-2014, assuming the 7.6% jobless rate falls to 7% by then. The Fed is buying $85 billion a month in government bonds to hold down long-term interest rates.

Financial markets assumed that Bernanke’s roadmap also meant that the Fed likely will raise its benchmark short-term interest rate in late 2014, instead of mid-2015 as anticipated.

But Bernanke reiterated that the Fed won’t consider raising short-term rates until the unemployment rate reaches 6.5%.

The Fed chairman also suggested that policymakers could keep the bond-buying program at full throttle longer if the economy wobbles. While the housing market is improving and buoying consumer wealth, federal spending cuts still could dampen growth, he said. “it’s still too early to say we have weathered the fiscal restraint,” he said.

And if interest rates continue to rise in anticipation of Fed actions, hobbling the economy, “we’ll have to push back against that,” Bernanke said.

In his prepared speech earlier, Bernanke says the 2008 financial crisis showed the Federal Reserve that it must strengthen its approach to both regulation and interest-rate policies.

Bernanke says the U.S. economy has yet to fully recover from the downturn.

source: USA Today

S&P futures are +15. Prepare for winship, of extreme perversion.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtTyCiE4KTQ

I sold out of O, for a small gain. The pervasiveness of ascending interest rates has my attention, which caused me to sell the stock. I don’t want yield. I want growth and short squeezes.

I sold out of FRO, marking an end of an era. It ended with a whimper, pretty much breaking even on the entire position. That’s alright, since I am +35% for the year.

With the O proceeds, I bulked up on SCTY, making it a top 3 position. I also added to SHLD.

Look, rates are going up and the market isn’t going down. This is bullish. Pay attention and try to keep up.

If you’re unable to adapt, you’ll never make it in this business.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=263Cnsd0tLQ

I sold out of the rest of my FRO position.

This is a very important point I am about to make to you. WTI is surging, as predicted by the July seasonality stats. It’s amazing how trends keep repeating themselves. Anyway, the WTI-Brent spread is now under $3, which places the refiners, especially mid-continent refiners, directly into the ‘fag box.’

Look at the shares of ALJ, DK, HFC, WNR, PSX and CVI, all drowning in oil. The pendulum swings the other way and when it does, it cuts hard.

The refiners could be ‘epic’ buys here, if indeed the spread is set to widen again. After all, all of the experts believe that is will. I happen to think a ‘pain trade’ is taking place here, which will inevitably result in a flush out. This is not that.

I’ve been a shareholder of the WNR for many years, on and off, all the way down to $11 per share. The stock defies logic and reason on a regular basis. I do not think $27 is a bargain for the shares. I will look to get in under $20.

On the other hand, surging oil prices is good for a number of sectors, such as solar, alternative energy and good old fashioned exploration plays who bank coin off the price of oil going higher.

Top performers in the oil space, over the past two weeks, include: HNR, EGY, XCO, ROSE, GST, HK, KEG, HERO, WLL and CLR. But the space is entirely ignored by the investment community. There is a lot of potential upside to this industry, if the price of oil continues to trend higher.

I’m hitting new highs again, yet I haven’t had a big break-through. I am waiting, ever-so-patiently. Over the previous two sessions, I was down early but came back to close in the black. I am so black right now, call me Bill Cosby.

The top picks have to remain the same, since I haven’t Mt. St. Helens yet.

IMMR, GS, O and FWM are my top holdings. Secondary positions include WETF, USG, SHLD, AMBA, SCTY, FRO and several old man stocks.

I’m doing it plebs, pushing the pedal all the way down to the ground, ignoring caution, leveraged 125% long into what I see as “an opportunity.”

If you’re the scared type, go away. You are visiting the wrong financial blogger.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YcIgow6TDk

Review site Yelp Inc. is allowing users to order food online for delivery and pickup, partnering with businesses such as Eat24 and Delivery.com.

The offering, called Yelp Platform, can be accessed on desktop computers and mobile gadgets, the San Francisco company said in a blog post Tuesday.

Yelp also said Tuesday that it will eventually roll out a scheduling program for appointments at yoga studios, salons, spas and dentist offices. To do so, it plans to pair with brands such as Booker, Demandforce and MindBody.

source: LA Times

I regret selling Yelp. This is one of those press releases that will be forgotten in a few days or weeks, then permeate greatness into the company for years, similar to the day Apple announced iTunes. Yelp is going to kill this business. They’re gonna be the iTunes of the takeout business. I can’t think of a social media stock that is killing it like Yelp, not ANGI, TRIP or Z– and I love them all.

I need to buy it back. I am going to stalk this stock like a creepy serial killer hiding in the shrubs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgPMwDNP-RA