Waiting Out the Amateurs

I am pretty bored out of my mind, as I am fully invested and do not feel the urge to leverage up into Congressional stupidity. I am watching a documentary called “Red Obsession” and am amazed at the insanity of the chinese arrivistes–clamouring for Bordeaux wine like crack-heads in the South of Bronx.

I am pleased to see BALT trending higher and logical people take positions. My YELP is above $70 again and I am halfway towards making up yesterday’s losses.

As for FLTX: it is an earnings play, betting against the mentally ill at Seeking Alpha. I don’t know why so many challenged people gravitate to that site. It must have something to do with the owners of Seeking Alpha. I don’t know.

CREE caught a Goldman upgrade today, a very bold call considering they missed earnings.

At any rate, I have nothing to offer you but confidence. If something comes up, you’ll be right at the top of the list of people to tell.

Back to my documentary.

The BDI is down 9 this morning, basically unchanged thanks to strength in Supramax rates. By the way, Handysize rates haven’t budged during this small BDI pullback. The BDI is being dragged lower by Capesize rates, which are up 300% over the past two months. Any reasonable human being would surmise this pullback to be a healthy aspect of a bull market in its nascency.

Back to BALT.

Have a look at their profit and loss statement, over the past year.

Cost of revenue is pretty much mailed in every qt at $4.5 mill. SG&A is also extremely predictable at $1.8 mill and “others” has been no more than $3.72mill over the past 4 qts, bringing total expenditures to around $9.9 million per qt.

Now the problem with BALT, as well as many other Dry Bulkers, has been the top line. Their revenues have sucked, thanks to depressed rates. However, in recent weeks, rates have changed, rather dramatically.

Let’s have a sterile, scientific, look at BALT’s current revenue rates.

Total fleet: 11 (2 additional Handysize ships added since last qt)

Capesize: 2 @ $36,069 per day- $72,138

Supramax: 4 @ $11,369 per day-  $45,476

Handysize: 5 @ $5,940 per day-  $29,700

Total: $147,314

According to today’s rates, BALT is generating $147,314 per day. If you extrapolate that over 90 days, they should make $13,258,260–providing capacity remains at 99.9%.

In summary, total expenses amount to $110,000 per day. With revenues at $147,314 per day, BALT stands to make $37,314, every single day or $3.35 million dollars over the next quarter. Considering BALT’s position of returning earnings to shareholders, expect a special dividend to be announced over the next quarter or two.

It’s pointless to scour the market for deals at a time when our government is purposely hurting itself. I’d rather shoot myself out from a carnivale cannon and juggle for the elderly.

I’ve made my bed and BALT is my largest position now. I didn’t buy any today, because momentum stocks tend to get flushed when things get tenuous. Well, things are tenuous now and I doubt many people are calculating the amount of coin they are making now. All they see is a chart, coupled with yahoo and stocktwits messages. That’s it.

The blindness of others is my edge.

Aside from that, I am still heavily long MHO, NSTG, YELP, FLTX and MODN. I own a pastiche of bastards and pirates and shall make my fortune that way.

I am tired from today’s workout and busy drinking this here “JAW-JACKER” pumpkin ale. Always remember that the people on the teevee are extraordinarily stupid and are unaware of the truth.

This dip is a gift, but timing is everything.

I don’t want a government anymore. I am perfectly fine with dissolving this whole thing and resorting to “tribal economics”, whereby leaders of communities form militias and trade with one another. The government will default and your local congressmen will be dutifully unemployed.

The Prezident is off playing golf, making preparations for his next vacay. The decadence that these people exhibit is disgusting. They’re all upright standing pigs, vying for a chance to smile for the cameras.

I am down 1.9% and we’re only getting warmed up.

“Fly, are you buying the dip?”

Not today, friendo. Not today.

They do not have massive Capesize exposure like DRYS. The reason why BALT is holding up better than other dry bulkers, amidst this very modest pullback, is because they own 4 Supramax and 5 Handysize ships, whose rates have gone higher over this very dramatic two day sell off.

The tonnage exposure to their Capes is equal to that in Supras and Handys. Therefore, it goes without saying, the fundamental story is still firmly intact at BALT, as they are still managing to mint about 145-150k per day or on pace for $13.5 mill for the quarter–a staggering 107% increase from last quarter.

In short, the market is soft, so don’t expect miracles. However, as far as the fundamental reasons to own BALT are concerned, nothing has changed.

When the government shuts down, we will all laugh at the foolishness of Congress, particularly the GOP for wanting to shut it all down for the sake of “saving the country” from Obamacare. However, those smiles will quickly turn into frowns if this issue isn’t resolved by October 17th.

By then, the govt will have about $30 billion to its name and will have to default on its obligations, on purpose of course.

A reasonable person would surmise there to be zero chance that our leaders would willingly default on its debt.

But, pray tell me, how confident are you that these bozos can meet in the middle? The democrats and GOP are from different planets. They can’t agree on anything and the President never talks to anyone. He’s too busy playing golf and selecting Michelle’s “fall look’ costumes.

All in all, people get what they deserve. I am fully invested; but I am open to the idea of leveraging up on dips.

Let’s see how she opens.

Let me just say, any sell off caused by this Congressional dysfunction is pure fiction and should be bought. Sure, there will be a hit to GDP and S&P might downgrade US debt to junk status; but we have guns, butter, and plenty of gin. There isn’t anything, literally, that can derail the bull run, so do not fear the coming correction.

I’m hoping for stocks to trade down 200-900 points tomorrow. After all, I am a neutral position of only being long 100% of my assets. I intend to leverage up to 150% long, with a full chest, heart filled with rage, as soon as The PPT flags another golden oversold opportunity.

All of the favorite names should be on the watch list: YELP, TRLA, ANGI, maybe a little GOGO if it comes down low enough.

“The Fly” is laughing out loud (no LOL) at the misfits in Congress, whilst eating his dinner–accompanied by a glass of water ( I practice absolute discretion on a continuous basis). I am hoping for massive carnage, irreversible if possible, to be done to the credibility of this fine institution, alongside the complete and utter failure of Obama-care. I harbor extreme irrational disdain for my elected officials, local and national, and hope that they fail at every thing that they attempt to accomplish.

The welfare state is alive and well. There are scores of people, mostly criminally minded vagrants, who enjoy the Obama administration, in all of its high strung ineptitude. Hey, by the way, how’s Michelle doing these days? Any fashion statements to speak of? I am sure she’s revealed her new “fall look” for all of us lowly citizens to revel and gossip about.

Citizens of the United Steaks of America, go about your business and watch the foolsball game on the tube. Drink excessive quantities of pumpkin ale and eat as many BBQ chicken wings as your heart desires (extra Eddie Barzoon). The government has declared tomorrow to be “stock market loss day.” Try to enjoy it with all of its new school grandeur.

Let me preface this post with a few facts regarding “The Fly” and the discretion he exhibits on a daily basis when it comes to his nutrition. I am relegated to the strictest of plans, as I am cutting down to 10-11% body fat. While doing so, I am eating loads of protein and minimizing the carbs, like any decent, law abiding, citizen who cares about his/her body should.

HOWEVER, ever since the Fall has attacked me, I’ve been craving pumpkin in just about any food product. I’ve eaten pumpkin bread, pie, cookies, washed it down with pumpkin beer and coffee. Just today I ordered pumpkin raviolis, but decided to send it back to the chef for being “completely inadequate and entirely inedible” (those were my exact words). By the way, once you say something like that, forget about eating at that establishment, forever. Send the food back and ask for your check. Trust me on that.

Back to the crisis at hand. All of this pumpkin stuff is driving me mad. I even had a “pumpkin shandy” yesterday. I don’t even know what that is, yet I drank it. In the pantry lies two packs of pumpkin jello that I picked up. I was fixing on having Mrs. Fly make it for me. Just last week I created some sort of pumpkin protein bar crap. Oh, by the way, I have pumpkin granola bars too. If pumpkin could be injected and mainlined, I’d probably do it, despite my aversion to needles.

Did I mention that I’ve been going to this organic smoothie store for “pumpkin smoothies” for lunch? It’s like a god damned pumpkin pie in a 12oz cup.

Bear in mind, I’m consuming all of this in a very methodical, organized manner, still conforming to my nutritional plan. Nonetheless, I find myself to be a ridiculous person, devouring all of this pumpkin. Surely any gentleman worth a pinch of salt shouldn’t behave in such a depraved manner.

By the way, this god damned Pumpking beer is phenomenal and is sold out at my local alcoholic spot. If you should happen to see it at your local alcoholic resting store, buy it in spades.

So we lost a little coin today, at least some of us mortals did. I know Option Addict has been cheating with his picks, seeking advice vis a vis the company time machine–leaving the rest of us in awe. His latest pick, YGE, is nothing less than staggering.

The solars are a funny sector. I was buying YGE in the $2’s, putting a price target of $6 on it, based upon an apples to apples comparison of its peers. Lo and behold, he we are at $6.

The PPT scores have been very gloomy as of late, reminiscent of a cold war. We’re not oversold, not overbought. We are simply floating aimlessly, losing a little here and a little there. I’ve been fortunate to escape the latest sell off, save today’s 1.5% drubbing. However, I am not complacent and understand that all good things end, at least temporarily, so I better be prepared for that eventuality.

‘Tis the season for market catastrophes and government shut downs. Over the weekend, I am going to comb all of my favourite screens for the very best of stocks and post them, exclusively for the top hatted, white glove wearing, gents inside of The PPT.

I sold out of FFIV to raise money, locking in a 7% loss. To be honest, it felt good booking a loss. Between that and CVV, I’ve cleared my decks of the waste, in order to make room for the bounty. In a market like this, we don’t have time for stragglers. Throw them into the wind, off the helicopter, and into the zombie horde. There is work to be done, but not on a Friday afternoon ahead of the government shutting down.

Over the past few days, I’ve reduced my market exposure and now find myself at a mere 100% long position, as opposed to something much higher. I employ the tools of leverage because I am an artist, a person with an eye for knowing what is good.

Speaking of which, the Dry Bulkers are selling off a bit here, save EGLE. No worries. Rome wasn’t built overnight, nor a decent shareholder base. When the solars began to run, they were stricken with volatility designed to kill old people. Now look at them. They are institutional favorites and we all want a piece of the action, now don’t we?

I view the shippers in a similar vein. Rates have skyrocketed, but no one believes they’re sustainable. Just today, my good friends over at Zerohedge took a swipe at them. I applaud them for it and look forward to taking the money of their readers for my own personal harem, once they cover their shorts.

I’m off by 1%, watching movies at home, laughing at the stupid people on the teevee.