See This Market? There is Only One Way to Play It

I’ve racked my brain as far as it could go. I’ve twisted in the wind for weeks, trying to discern the direction of this tape. I’ve concluded my studies.

Invest like we are entering a global recession–because we are!

Russia, Brazil (fuck you, I will not spell it Brasil), China, Australia, Canada and many more are enjoying “bullet to the head” economic deceleration. Let’s assume the eastern winds are truly howling and the PE ratio of this market is about to be taken down by 20%. Where will investors flee to?

There is precedent to all of this and the writing is already on the wall.

Consumer staples are near their 52 week highs: food, cleaning products, alcohol and beverages.

Instead of firing off a bunch of meaningless crap, I will tell you of my first purchase: CLX.

I’ve purchased Clorox, right here, in moderate size, expecting new highs in the coming weeks and months ahead. Additionally, I bought a little more SHAK, nibbled on it, due to boredom.

Seriously, tho, the market is exhibiting signs of extreme risk aversion. It makes sense to load up on some high dividend paying consumer goods names now. Worst case scenario, you’re wrong and lose a few percent on the trade. The alternative is to keep buying high growth and get placed on the Catherine Wheel for another -25% drubbing.

A few hours ago, Hillary tweeted this:

As much as I’d like to deride her for being a communist, I cannot. The healthcare system is such a farce: it’s painful for me to even think about all of the money I’ve paid for insurance, year in and year out. Truth be told, America has the best innovation in medicine because our companies are flush with cash that is given to them from the morons who occupy hospital beds.

Drugs are absurdly overpriced and something needs to be done in order to reduce healthcare costs.

That being said, Clinton’s comments have resulted in a rout in the biotech sector, to the tune of 5%. For me, the sector is too sensitive to risk to delve into right now. I need lower beta, a few infield hits before I am ready to swing for the fences again.

I am having a difficult time finding stocks to buy. I am flush with cash, actively scouring the market for opportunity. But the pickens are slim, thanks to a very narrow and unpredictable group of stocks trending in a positive manner.

I will likely put some money to work soon, if only to entertain myself from the moribund nature of wating for something exciting to happen.

The market opened up 100, after getting its fucking brains beat in on Friday. Do you trust the gains to hold? Are you sure the market will fade?

You can try to play the chop, sashay in and out from 3x ETFs witth magical precision. Or, you can pick a side, commit to it, and wait for results patiently. Ultimately, all markets go higher, over a long enough time frame. The motto of Zerohedge is a mornic one, entirely false and without merit. Even the tulip retains some value after all this time.

Last week I doubled down in TWTR. My largest position is AMCX, followed by BIDU and SHAK. Personally, I have been buying 2016 calls on SHAK, somethig I haven’t done since 2012.

The price action in the market has a lot of people thinking something ominous awaits on the horizon. While this may be true, it’s useless to try to time the market on a day to day basis.

My best adivce is for you to get your affairs in order. Have your will completed and prepare for your demise, for the apocalypse is always coming, especially designed for the expectancy of your life. You should also diversify your holdings, manage risk, and raise a little cash.

FYI: I completed writing an algorithm for a portfolio risk analyzer. After we are done with Exodus upgrades, I will commence with a project to build it and offer it free to the people.

Sincerly yours,

Charitable and Most Gracious Fly

UPDATE: Even MOAR generosity. For a limited time, upon buying a ticket to the iBC Conference, you will receive 1 free month to any iBankCoin premium service. Or, if you purchase an annual membership to Exodus, 12631 or After Hours with Option Addict, you will receive a free ticket to the 2nd and motherfucking LAST iBC conference in this century.

It’s about to get real hot around here. Before I forget to pitch you: the 2nd and LAST iBC conference is coming soon, October 24th, 2015.

What to expect?

All sort of things, especially during the after hours VIP party, located at the Yale Club, NYC. Don’t worry, you do not need to be a member of the club to join us. The Option Addict, Jeff Macke and Josh Brown will host the event. Ragin Cajun, VINCENT ILLUMINATI and RAUL will also be in attendance. After festivities, we will most likely commit a heinous masonic ritual, whereby we sacrifice a small elephant or weak human.

OA has a post up now, regarding the event.

Due to extraordinary market conditions, those who sign up now until the end of the month will receive a free month of any iBC service: Exodus, 12631 or After Hours with Option Addict.

Also, I might give attendees some sort of preview of the book that I am writing, regarding the market crash of 2008 and how I sort of nailed it to pieces, all documented here on the bloggery.

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Futures are lower during tonight’s session. “The Fly” has been somewhat busy these days, transporting himself from one facility to the next. Hopefully things can get back to normal for me and I can sit back and enjoy the second coming, or continuation for some of  you deranged bearshitters, of the great depression.

This drop is all about China and its neighbors. The fear is a further devaluation of the yuan, which will decidedly crush the faces of people in Indonesia and other savage states. When the savage loses control of their markets, western, gentlemen, markets tend to catch a cold. Understand, this is all fleeting and things will get back to normal, once these morons are finished smashing pies into each other’s faces.

Before the nerds at zerohedge hijacked the persona of Tyler Durden, from the movie fight club, he used to be one of my favorite characters.

The rebellious nature of this movie appeals to me, even if it’s anti capitalistic and promotional of my least favorite form of societal upheavel: anarchy.

I am able to set aside my philosophical differences because these men in this film fucking punch each other and themselves in the face for fun.

Plus, Brad Pitt, another incredibly underrated actor who makes hit after hit, is at his best here, along with Ed Norton.

There is nothing else to say.

Watch this movie, while drinking a stein of beer, taking bites out of your smoked turkey leg.

Boss.

Before you throw yourselves into lit fireplaces, I want you to consider one thing: the entire country might, very well, go bankrupt one day. Aside from the mountains of national debt, $19 trillion and counting, our burgeoning oil and gas sector has about $250 billion, most of which is now low quality paper, thanks to the collapse in crude.

Just like when home prices collapsed, causing the underlying debt of those who financed that sort of shit to vanish, one could make a similar argument that the shale oil boom laid the seeds for the complete and utter annihilation of these United Steaks of America.

Let me explain.

The credit crisis of 2008, actually started in 2007. Things got dicey and were quickly swept under the rug. As home prices continued to decline, the credit quality of that paper got downgraded, causing banks to take action, raise capital, in order to offset the write downs they were taking on illiquid, seldom traded, debt instruments. I suspect a similar scenario, albeit smaller, might be taking place now.

As that price of crude dives lower, the knife inside of CHK turns rapidly. Their guts are being mangled, strewn out across the ground. It’s only a matter of time before it bleeds out. If CHK were to go bankrupt, who is affected by it? I am not merely picking on CHK. This is a question that needs answers. Who owns all of that oil and gas debt?

How much does CFR, a Texas bank, own?

Within time, all of these questions will be answered. Since the drop in crude is somewhat fresh, I’m guessing the financial ramifications won’t be realized until Q1 of 2016.

She just doesn’t have the swag that the good Dr. Bernanke had. Perhaps it’s her lack of beard. She could’ve done anything yesterday and the market would still spit in her face today.

Emerging markets are the credit crisis of today. Nothing the Fed can do will stop the Canadians from entering debilitating depression.

As this market swan dives lower, I want you to remember who caused this: your good friends in Saudi Arabia.

In the state of Texas, high paying oil and gas jobs are being lost and low paying service jobs are being added. In other words, thanks to Saudi Arabia’s decision to break the price of oil and the US economy, our oil and gas workers are being fired and those gents are taking new jobs at the Holiday Inn.

This all happened because we hated to be dependent upon evil foreign oil. So over the past decade, we expanded our domestic oil production, levered up the debt, and made a drastic difference in where we buy our oil. We were becoming energy independent, contingent upon one minor detail. In order for this scheme to work, oil needed to trade above $75, because our cost to drill was so high.

Now we can vividly see the errors in our ways, once again.

The price of oil has been destroyed. As such, global econmic growth is now in recession. The next step will be to fetter out who has exposure to all the debt, see them go bankrupt, then watch The House of Saud celebrate our collapse, just like they did when they destroyed our buildings.

I like gold here, specifically GG.

As much as I relished the short lived rally of 25 minutes ago, it’s over now. The path of reversion has commenced, yet again, stymying all remnants of momentum.

Once again, each time the market looks like it’s about to bust loose, sellers meet them with vigor.

The NASDAQ is still up; but the reversal of 40 points from the highs is indicative of a market without purpose. Stock prices are fluctuating back and forth, resulting in a great nothing. If you sell short or get long into the teeth of any movement, you will end up on the receiving end of a ‘fag box.’

I am out of the office today; but able to monitor things closely. I added to SHAK today and retained the bulk of my cash, which is significant. My largest holdings are AMCX, BIDU, AAPL and PANW. I’m somewhat bullish on gold too, via GG.

As I write this, the market has fully reversed, setting the stage for late day trickery. Often times, on Fed day, the first move is wrong. On occasion, the secondary move is a head fake too, paving the way for the true move the next day.

Who knows? It’s all noise anyway.

The market will likely do a lot of nothing, at the end of the day. Sharp rallies will be sold and fades will be bought–a giant circle jerk of epic proportions– pounding impetuous traders into clown dust.

I gave RAUL front page privileges today because I am busy, attending to a personal matter. However, being that I am armed with a wifi capable ipad and ability to trade from off-location, I felt it was incumbent of me to inform the masses of the reader class of people that I have, once again, and indeud, added to my burgeoning SHAK position.

“The Fly” envisions an era of mammoth gains to be had over the next decade, or so, long shares of SHAK. He will bathe in the grease of their frenched fries and relish in the horrors of their coronary clogging meats.

Grandma Yellen will not hike rates today, beucase that would be a very stupid thing to do now, amidst global recession. Prepare for a rally and possible fade. If God is great and just, he will lower the price of SHAK, so that I might buy more of it. Or, he can simply permit it to rise.

Either scenario is perfectly acceptable to me.

I am going to pitch you now, like a two bit salesman. Membership levels are at all-time highs inside the halls of Exodus, for good reason. It works. Many thousands of you have taken me up on free trials, and many walked away impressed, but not enough to spend money. The people in my industry, brokers and money managers, traders, are some of the cheapest people on the face of the earth. I used to be one of those people, always looking for deals. I think it’s because we’re a skeptical breed, rooted in the fact that we’re in sales.

This is what I want you to do: try us out for a month. Hit me up and I’ll dispatch one of my servants to walk you through a live demo. The market is for shit, but our algorithms will help you see things clearly.

Here are the most recent oversold signals, all up from watermark.

Here is our track record for timing oversold inflection points, since 2009.

And here is the current reading, which is overbought on our 3 and 6 month algos. As you can see, it is flawless over a 10 day hold, indicative of a market that might be setting up for a let down.

Why am I pitching you?

This is what I was born to do. I make 10x the money by managing other people’s money. But building software and servicing the investor community with kick-ass tools is where my passion lies. iBankCoin is only a small fortress city, with a limited scope. Ultimately, I intend to branch out, which is why I need you clown-fuckers to “like” our Faced Book page, so I can spread my infectious brand of propaganda amongst the Grandmother class on the book with many faces (extra GOT).