I Sat Out the Rally

GOOD SIRS —

Whilst a great many out there enjoyed ribald and perverted returns, with the likes of $NVDA and $SMCI ripping the tits off bears, I traded exactly flat. If you think about it, what greater achievement is there but to trade precisely flat. Sure, many can make and lose a bundle — but can you trade FLAT when it counts?

I do not care to have missed out on the rally since I almost always miss out on the COLLAPSES. I am fully long into tomorrow in an array of cool stocks, wanting to fit in with the hipsters buying the tape here. It should be noted, I disdain the market with my entire lifeforce but acquiesce to the melodies of the tape out of sheer survival instincts, especially since I am not an idiot.

That being said, it’s entirely possible markets pull back tomorrow and I get bogged down, mired with losses. But I doubt it. As a point in fact, I’d bet my entire life we trade up tomorrow, if given the chance.

I offer you zero explanations as to why I am bullish, as I am not in any way obligated to provide you with anything. I am informing you of obvious truths. If you’re unable to discern or extract value from my missives, I strongly recommend you seek psychiatric counseling immediately and have your head looked after, for it might be damaged in some way.

Good day.

Ladies and gentlemen the $NVDA numbers knocked the cover off the ball and now the bears are going directly to prison. As you read this they’re being rounded up and hauled off for being menaces to society.

Today’s rally, NASDAQ +340, isn’t broad based but fixed on tech and growth. The risk averse stuff is down and upside breadth is limited to only 66% of stocks. Because of this, I’m long with some degree of trepidation. I had to immediately liquidate all stocks that were down near the open, mostly risk averse, and of course close out my $UVIX hedge. If it weren’t for the fact I was long $SMCI, I might be down today.

Presently, I have gains of +330bps in the quant, +90bps in strategic, and +30bps in trading. My trading is by far the largest and I’d like to point out that I feel no pressure to increase those returns now. The day is young and markets might trend lower from here, reducing me to a fool should I chase performance.

The $NVDA numbers were good enough to shut up the bears and we should expect some continuation in the rally, perhaps not today — but definitely tomorrow.

Do not worry about “The Fly” on days like this. I comported myself with both panache and precision, limiting my losses to just 12bps — mowing into the close with a rather large position in volatility to hedge against potentialities. I am speaking of course of the $NVDA earnings announcement, which if bad will crack this market asunder — unseen since the days when $AAPL reigned supreme.

We all assume $NVDA will crush. But the question we need answers to is will it be enough and will the guidance be good? Since the stock is down 9% in the past week, one might assume a better than expected result will jimmy up the stock back to recourd highs.

I am simply not in a position to make accurate predictions, as I no longer trade on or possess insider information. It’s just me out there in the wilderness, a la Fresca, using the tools available to me, alongside God given talents, to absolutely annihilate markets.

In a worst case scenario, I think my volatility hedge will be enough to offset my longs. I will need to take a position of boldness soon, as trading for flat is somewhat moribund. However, I will do so when I am ready and not on your terms — even if you’re a god damned customer. You are not entitled to anything and will get what you deserve.

It should be noted, $NVDA is the lynchpin to this market. Say for example they said really terrible things after the close, I have no doubt the market will tumble 3-5% tomorrow on that guidance. But I suspect $NVDA is going to shatter earnings estimates. How the stock responds to that is anyone’s guess.

We are trading on tilt here with high beta stocks stuffed into the meat grinder — off by another 3%. This can be the beginning of a rout or a buying opp. I suspect this will be resolved soon via some earnings announcements, namely $NVDA tonight.

Markets get hyper fixated in themes from time to time. Presently, the market obsessed with shares of $SMCI and as it goes — it seems — so goes the market. Shares are taking another drubbing today, off by 8% — which is sinking the $IWM down heavily by 0.75%. The market is mired in a vicious selloff amidst high beta trading stocks, down another 2.8% for the session.

The last 7 sessions for my High Beta index inside Stocklabs.

-5.49%
+4.7%
+1.03%
-2.08%
-0.12%
-2.95%
-2.8% (today)

See pal, it’s over and you’re just hearing about it now.

Since I predicted this, I had $SQQQ, $TZA and $LABD into today, alongside some low beta defensive stocks, and stand before you with gains of 9bps. I am not attempting to make a killing on the downside — just not get killed and preserve my gains.

I do not have any hedges now — just cash of 35% — eagerly awaiting a rigged hour or two where green candles run in abundance into the final hours of trade.

I felt the market would recover into the bell and it did, for the most part. And then I had visions of $SMCI surging tomorrow, leading the small cap index higher — luring back in traders and rewarded the sub 90 IQ HODLers with gains. I was about to cover my short until I felt sick by the specter of it — since I hate these people and want them to lose.

I doubled my short position and closed NET SHORT into tomorrow with bets against the Nasdaq, Russell, and the fucking biotech index. Even though I think there is a 50/50 chance for recovery tomorrow, I could not permit myself to lose out on the chance of pinning the market down on its knees and executing it with swift and elegant movements of retribution.

America deserves ZERO BID trading and, eventually, on a long enough timeline, everyone gets what they deserve.

I finished down 20bps for my fealty to the bearish cause and look forward to making it all back and much more tomorrow.

The rout in high beta stocks is palpable today, off by 3.3%. We are seeing a slight recovery now, led by $SMCI which is down less than 4% now, up from -11%. I have been nibbling on some stocks here, but have hedges in place and have a portfolio beta of 0.35 with 23% cash.

My intent here is not to make 3 or 4% tomorrow. To achieve such returns would amount to a high level of risk. If you tank another 2% tomorrow, I might draw down 3 or 4% in a high beta portfolio, squandering a significant portion of my +9% gains for 2024. You have to understand the manner in which I operate to understand investment excellence.

Life is long and there will be many days to achieve 3% gains with moderate risk. I am not in a rush to make all of the money now. I have no pressing needs and do not work for anyone but myself. My pacer rabbit is my quant and I am beating it easily.

I could see why a younger man might want to risk more in order to potentially make more and to help finance a lavish lifestyle — the things you were trained to believe what was important in the movies. But the truth is easier to understand and to attain. You have a far greater chance of attaining wealth by the time you’re in your 40s or 50s by simply compounding returns and adding to your investment accounts over the next 20 years than a YOLO trade in options that expire on Friday.

Trade smart and reward yourself later for a long rich history of investment excellence instead of a wild eyed gambit that can only work out of luck.

Good afternoon —

You thought you’d ride $SMCI to $2,000 and beyond but instead it’s going to zero. All of your dreams and aspirations have been SHATTERED across the rocks of reality. This isn’t the Apple Vision Pro 4-d augmented type either — but real life once in a lifetime gameday and you’re blowing it.

The fact of the matter is, you’re not serious people. I know this first hand from dealing with the public all of my adult life — seemingly intelligent people with skills unable to make basic decisions about their investments.

LOOK AT ME — +9bps for the session and in a 100% cash positions, waiting in the tall grass, EAGERLY, looking for prey. I’ve been doing this for so long it comes natural to me. I didn’t want to trade the morning session because it’s rife with cataclysm and trickery, games played by the riggers to take all of your money, and much more.

I will soon re-enter the tape and I see where the trends are and aren’t. We have LOW BETA stocks like $GIS and $CAG up whilst all of the cool growth is bogged down heavily and sloppily into the sewers. Also, breadth is a respectable 45% which leads me to believe there is a 20 green candle rally not too far towards the horizon.

While today is a COLLAPSE in both the NASDAQ and Russell, there is moderation elsewhere. A little air is being let out of the riskiest quartiles of the market, which of course is natural and healthy. I used to hate when people would say “this is a healthy sell off” when I was a younger man and now I am older and telling it to you. What are you going to do about it, old sport?

Good evening —

I had a long weekend entertaining some guests from NYC and happened to chance upon a rare comment inside my last blogs’ comments section. The comments have become increasingly rare for a  number of reasons. If you go back into the archives of many years ago you’ll see hundreds of comments per post because that was prior to Stocklabs or Exodus where paid customers talk shit all day inside the Pelican Room.

Another reason is the readership is much smaller since I don’t push out non-financial news anymore and instead of having other bloggers writing for me — it’s just me. The last reason is X/Twitter — where much of the conversation is happening. In a sense the blogosphere is a relic of another era, pre social media. Back when I started blogging, circa 2002, many people I knew had blogs. If you wanted to express yourself — you started a blog and when you wanted to converse with other people you’d go to other blogs and talk in their comments section. I’d argue that iBankCoin is one of the very few OG blogs left from the pre Twitter era and I’ve really done a terrible job at updating the site — but that’s a conversation for another day.

At any rate, here is the comments from a Mr. “Rigged Game”.

Since I don’t have much going on right now I will dissect this comment and offer a reply.

“Nobody gives a shit about how many basis points you made in your quant or trading account today, last week, or last year using your ludicrous frenetic trading methods which are of ZERO value for your readers.”

I vividly recall this almost identical comments left before — maybe by the same person. Naturally my gains aren’t yours so who the fuck cares how much money I made for the day, week, month, etc.? But you’re wrong on several point here.

1. My Quant and Strategic Accounts do not trade often and can easily be followed by people. My trading account’s trades are also down 30% in 2024, as I am trying to trade less so members can follow me more closely. The quant is allocated once per month and the strategic holdings are at a minimum 1 week to multi months holds.
2. If I do not tell people about my returns, whether they be up or down, no one will really know if my opinions hold weight. I get new readers daily and those people should understand the type of person that they are dealing with — a man who is able to bank extreme amounts of coin in any tape and cannot be stopped by any market environ.

“They come here to read your opinions of the market direction over the medium and long term, and to enjoy your prose.”

This comments tells me “Rigged Game” isn’t hostile and is a fan — but just wants me to SHUT THE FUCK UP and to tell him where stocks are going without me fixating on my performance. Truth is, the best way for a Mr. Rigged Game to access me in that manner is through buying a membership inside Stocklabs. Since I do not advertise for the business, he should know that iBankCoin is a free blog that also advertises for Stocklabs and has done so since 2008. I have always written in this manner and will continue to do so.

“So spare us the tedium of reading about your gains and losses and stick to your market opinion and enjoyable writing.”

Well, thank you for the compliment and the passive aggressive behavior. I always enjoy dissecting human behavior. I can see Rigged Game is an intelligent person by the use of the word “tedium” and lack of grammatical errors. That being said, he should use some deductive reasoning here and take a different tact in reproaching me with content requests.

For example:

“Hey Fly — I appreciate your work — but how about your limit your trading gains and losses reports to just 1 blog per day and have the other 1 or 2 blogs discuss some macros trends and predictions for stocks?”

That I can do.

But, I’d also entreat you to SHUT THE FUCK UP since it’s my blog and I can do whatever the hell I wanted to do here. I might be reporting my gains and losses for posterity, so that my great grandchildren can one day come here and see I made 0.62% on 2/16/24 — something that might be of EXTREME importance to him since he might be a data analyst and statistics is something of great interest to him. OR, perhaps I post my returns to flex on you FUCKED FACES every day so you can get angry and jealous, showing your seething rage in the comments section after the tedium boils over into outright red faced acrimony.

I can always convert iBankCoin into paid blog and greedily extract money from Rigged Game, since he doesn’t seem generous enough to support my work via a Stocklabs membership.

So you know, I will continue to irritate you Mr. Rigged Game and invite you to continue reading me nonetheless. Thank you for your patronage you cocksucking son of a bitch.

I closed the session at the highs, +62bps — topping off yet another week of success, gaining more than 3.5% — pushing my gains for 2024 to 9.1%. Whilst you pretend to be good art trading, I am actually great. It’s important to know thyself and do not fool oneself into tasks that are above your mental acuity.

I delegate things all the time and only partake, if you will, in tasks that I an exceedingly good at — which covers a great numbers of areas as I am an authentic polymath.

It should be noted — $SMCI is now the $IWM — constituting the direction of the index to such a degree that it is beholden to the stock for its performance. Today’s pin action in $SMCI was a classic blow off top. We now EAGERLY await a waterfall of sellers, as Johnny Come Latelies get flummoxed and trapped inside the Brazen Bull and summarily executed for wanton greed.

Lists have been made and all will pay dearly.

I closed for the weekend with a pastiche of LOW BETA stocks, hedged with 12% weighing in $TZA and $SQQQ — 47% cash. I do not know what else to tell you, a person such as myself accelerating into turmoil — seeing it all — whilst you blindly get bogged down heavily with losses due to beta cuck trading habits.

Do yourselves a favour — buy yourselves a membership to Stocklabs and BEHOLD the glory of “The Fly” trading in real time and providing his people with an abundance of fish, nourishing the people with provisions that will last a lifetime, if not more.