Because the CPI came in hot, bond yields have soared 13bps to 4.5% on the 10yr, the dollar +0.9% v euro, and stocks have collapsed. I’m of course greatly chagrined by this all, especially since I came into today 141% leveraged with just 20% short. I had to pare down my longs immediately to get me into a slightly net short position and now possess losses of 1.75% for the day. I did not think the CPI number was going to be deleterious since Biden rigs everything. He is all knowing, a true Machiavellian genius hiding behind a grotesquely large cone of iced cream.
My temptation is to unequivocally tell you that “it’s over” and there’s no way the housing market can sustain at 9% mortgages and how the idea of a rate cut is now fantasy. But I’ve learned many lessons the past two years and will not underestimate the stupidity of my fellow trader, to get in that fucking market right now and bid $NVDA higher.
I wish I had more bad news to give you, such as broken elevator cable pin action, or some regional bank about to bust lower on liquidity concerns. After all, they’re all leveraged long treasuries at fresh fucking lows.
But it’s all papered over and we live in fantasy land.
I’m 42% cash, 20% short, still thinking on which direction to bet on.
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(laughter) yeah those traders can be pretty dumb