Looking For Cheap Wares

I sometimes like to pretend the market isn’t all knowing and there is some unforeseen value yet to be unlocked. I envision myself a maven diving into a thesis trade before everyone else. I wade into names that are hated and wait out the storm until the worm turns and sell into the reward.

This actually rarely happens and I’ve maybe done this in practice 5 times during my illustrious trading career, instead opting for buying what is working now in favor of what might work in the future.

But we can still dream and they can never stop me.

On the issue of dreaming, I often think about China and how the Hang Seng is down at 15 year lows, harangued by the communists and their machinations — bedraggled by autocrats who show little respect for free markets. Nonetheless, from time to time the Chinese really do give a good run and according to the data — that run, dare I say, might happen soon.

Based on the seasonality data inside Stocklabs, Chinese stocks do best in January. Do not ask me why, as I am not interested in providing you with any answers. Just accept it as a fact and look at the graphic for $BABA below.

My favorites are $BABA, $NIO, $WB and perhaps $BEKE. There are many others and the winner this year has been $PDD. But I think any liquid China name will suffice, if the likes of BABA rampage higher in January.

The trick here is to stay with the trade. We might get a 10% pop and then get lured into another trade, tempted to sell out of the China trade just as it’s getting started. I feel I need to work on being more patient with some of these thesis trading ideas and may do so in 2024.

Food for thought as you trade the chop-slop.

One of the biggest complaints I’ve heard about my trading the past 3 years is that I’m too fast, one moment short the next long — a chaotic blend of madness and genius that somehow produces outsized results. It never used to be this way, as I made my way through Wall Street building positions and excelling in core thesis ideas and swing trading.

Lucky for you, several months ago I decided to try my hand at swing trading account, defined as long/short portfolio with holding periods longer than 1 week. I might do 2 or 3 trades per week — nothing exceptional.

This account I speak of is now +27% the past few months and has no intention of heading lower any time soon. I am so impressed with it, I am actually mad at myself for beating the shit out of my trading account — most likely due to an undiagnosed mental ailment.

Above is the chart of my performance in that account and some recent trades. I tell you these things, as a public service. After all, if I don’t tell you these things — how would you ever know and how would I ever build the ranks of Stocklabs?

Yes, the basic level of services is privy to my portfolios and picks, so stop emailing me.

Heading into tomorrow, I am fully long without hedges. I somehow blew an early +65bps gain and closed flat. I am not really focused at the moment — but will be getting as serious as a fucking heart attack as soon as 2024 rings in.

I’m a bit lost without the specter of looming disaster or melt up. The sudden surge in stock prices these last two months has surprised many of the permanent bear type of investor into a state of shock. We’ve lost so many fellow ursine to the horrors of the bull market, which, by the way, came out from nowhere — much to the delight of the transgendered bull who lies and tells tall tales of it always being here.

‘Tis isn’t true. Might I remind them stocks COLLAPSED in 2022 to the tune of 35%, tossing many of man straight out of their dining room windows onto the hard unforgiving pavement below.

After such a year, we expected a repeat of sorts in 2023 — but sadly that didn’t happen. In its stead, we got fucking $META and $NVDA up triple digits and just about every stock that fell in 2022 soared back to record highs in 2023. With such performance, in the face of such fright, who could ever doubt the market again?

I doubt it and I am here to remind you that, although it doesn’t appear to be over — it really and truly is. The sands of time have already started to dissipate and there isn’t much left to do other than having to wait for the eventual and final collapse to occur.

Meanwhile, we get to trade in a neurotic tape filled with pops and drops, sudden third world movements fucked with “fuck you candles” and news driven events shopped heavily by circus clowns in the media — beclowing themselves for the sake of borrowing time.

I’m having difficulty, again, refining my trading account and have seen my swing trading account beat it by orders of magnitude. I am up nearly 16% in my swing and just 1.5% in my trading for the month of December — mostly due to churning myself and reacting to a market that veils it’s true nature with jerky movements. I am sure there are many who are crushing it. But this isn’t “my sort of tape” and I am contemplating whether I should switch the strategy to swing trading, absolving myself from having to deal with the day to day pangs and the horrors of the bull market.

I titled this post based off of a fact, which incidentally has nothing to do with the stock market. I’ve come to realize a long time ago the market trades off emotions and money supply — rarely if ever reflecting the overall health and prosperity of its people.

Who would’ve guessed that heading into 2023, a year rife with banking scares, inflation, and collapse in mortgage applications — the best performers would be the companies building homes.

I remember the last time homies led the way, circa 2006-2007 when they traded like tech stocks, just before their eventual collapse. In order for the housing market to collapse, we’d need to see delinquencies and we are not seeing that at all. Perhaps we are a few years away? Wishful thinking.

Copper is bid higher by nearly 2% and iron ore futures are at 18 mo highs. Crypto currency Solana is up 800% this year and all of the NFTbros are back. It’s sickening to see it and even worse is when you’re not in it. But we can’t keep hating things forever. The cortisol is bad for our life expectancies. Perhaps we should join the transgendered bulls and gravitate towards wanton degeneracy?

The action looks encouraging early on. But we are at the end of the year, so don’t expect much.

It takes very little to mess up a trading day, especially when arriving to the scene late. I was mostly out of pocket today, +34bps at the open, and then ebbed into the afternoon session and had enjoyed +50bps of gains for most of the day, up until the last 10 mins or so when markets GAPPED DOWN and offered a mini collapse, taking my gains down to just +19bps for the session.

I think about these sort of things often and try to concoct methods to avoid succumbing to such retarded price action — but I’ve concluded that it cannot be avoided — no different than living in a modern diverse metropolis. To be mugged and robbed, raped and murdered, is part and parcel of being an investor or trader in the modern era. We get to enjoy the many accoutrements unavail to the rural poor, trading in this modern era of perfidy and grandiloquent delight. We have lots of money to grabble and there are opportunities to step over other traders to take whatever sums of money our heart’s desire.

HOWEVER, on day’s like today, when off or simply not plugged in, we get mugged a little. If you were traversing NYC today and spent the day in that first rate city, mostly enjoying yourself amidst the excesses, and, just before going home, got robbed for the contents of your wallet — you might find comfort in the fact that you had an otherwise profitable day and the contents of your wallet was not even a 0.01% representation of your net worth.

In other words, getting robbed or mugged in NYC is part of the parcel that is living in the city. Providing you’re not walking around with your entire net worth inside of your wallet, it’s not really that big a deal to get chanced upon every so often.

I’m trading defensively to cap off the year, relegating myself to about +60% for the year. I am sure you think that I think it is a great achievement and that I am boasting. But it isn’t true. Although I know +60% is technically a good year and better than most, I feel mediocre and have felt subpar since 2021. I really could have done a lot better, made less mistakes — capture more rallies.

I think it’s fair to say that I made 60% whilst missing out on 80% of the big rallies this year. My gains were milled out — mined with my own hands — subjugated to inclemate weather and poor working conditions. Back in 2020 and 2021 my fastball was unhittable, curve ball broke the legs of people trying to hit it.

Nowadays I am relegated to pedestrian levels of greatness — not superhuman. Do you understand?

As the calendar continues, I am cognizant of the fact that this is a younger man’s game. To be a good trader is to be sharp and to be sharp is to be young, completely aware of your surroundings. I know for sure that I was a better risk applier when I was 25, but also woefully inadequate in managing risk. It is a fair assessment to say that I have never been better, although I’d like very much to enjoy the level of greatness achieved back in 2020-2021.

After all, the NASDAQ was up more than 50% this year. I know ordinary stocks didn’t do much — but with a market up that much — a great trader should be up triple digits this year.

I blame myself, entirely, always on the defensive, schizo, afraid of the fires to come. I had many distractions and it wasn’t a typical year, with geopolitical events truly making things hard to decipher. But I will continue to head out there in FULL BATTLE GARMENTS, sticking swords into people, dropping hot tar and lighting them aflame. For 2024, I intent to introduce a battering ram for my enemies, break into their castles and pillage it.

For the session, I’m +33bps, really just getting into trading for the day right now.

Statistically, a lot of people go crazy ’round the holidays, most likely the result of their expectations not matching with their realities. I’ve always been fond of the Christmas season, the sentiments being to be generous and thoughtful — cheerful and celebratory with the people you love.

When I was a young boy, Christmas meant secret presents under the tree, letting my mind run wild with expectations. I was almost always disappointed after opening my gifts — but the next year I’d renew the aspirational excitement and hoped Santa got it right that year.

When I was around 10, I finally learned Santa Claus wasn’t real and it shook me to my core. A part of me was destroyed, the magic of Christmas would never be the same…until I had kids of my own.

With my kids, my wife and I really went above and beyond to give them that magical feeling that, unfortunately, is fleeting for a very brief period during a lifetime. We’d leave the cookies for Santa, carrots for Rudolph, and hope to receive whatever we had wished for in the months and weeks heading into the holiday.

It’s true to say I was an active participant in forgetting the true meaning of Christmas, something I complain about now as an older man. The consumerism I decry as being “evil” is something that I’ve partaken in ever since I hoped and dreamed to receive the gifts of my dreams back when I was 6. Alas the nuance of life and the varying degrees of hypocrisy laid bare for all the world to see.

We’re all hypocrites, to some degree. There are things that I want in theory but perhaps would loathe in practice. Idealism is really something that is best practiced inside one’s mind, sort of like communism. It sounds nice for everyone to be happy and healthy — but would it ever work in real life — especially given the innumerable ways humans tend to fork one another?

My Grandfather used to stick decorations around the house and sing songs in his eloquent deep baritone voice and make struffolis and adorn the table with a Christmas feast of the very first order. He’d build a hundred paper airplanes for me and shoot them around his 6th floor apartment for me to chase around all day, telling me tall tales about past Christmases and when he once saw Santa in a sled from his Brooklyn window. I’d hang onto every word and never knew someone as creative and intelligent as he was, even though I’d notice, from time to time, his temper burned pretty hot. My Mother and Uncles never knew this person. They knew someone far worse, who was now reformed and the same could be said about my Grandmother.

We all take lessons from previous generations and if we’re paying close attention we can become better. My hopes for my children is to be better and live a happier life than me, hopefully passing down this trait to future generations and live peacefully with people who love them.

Cheers to you and your families and thank you for your patronage and the attention you’ve given me all these years. I am grateful.

Fly

These aren’t the top 10 stocks based off technical scores now — but the aggregate scores year to date. I’d normally apply a volume filter for trading purposes but removed it for the sake of the exercise and it produced some names I was unfamiliar with. It was a great year for many stocks and specific sectors. If recalcitrant in the losing areas of the market, you were offered very few periods of respite, as the anointed places of bullish fervor constantly ebbed higher.

#1:M/I Homes Inc. ($MHO) +189% = M/I Homes, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a builder of single-family homes in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Florida, and Texas, the United States. The company operates through Northern Homebuilding, Southern Homebuilding, and Financial Services segments. It designs, constructs, markets, and sells single-family homes and attached townhomes to first-time, millennial, move-up, empty-nester, and luxury buyers under the M/I Homes brand name. The company also purchases undeveloped land to develop into developed lots for the construction of single-family homes, as well as for sale to others. In addition, it originates and sells mortgages; and serves as a title insurance agent by providing title insurance policies, examination, and closing services to purchasers of its homes. The company was formerly known as M/I Schottenstein Homes, Inc. and changed its name to M/I Homes, Inc. in January 2004. M/I Homes, Inc. was founded in 1976 and is based in Columbus, Ohio.

#2: Limbach Holdings Inc. ($LMB) +327% = Limbach Holdings, Inc. operates as an integrated building systems solutions company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Construction and Service. The company engages in the design, prefabrication, installation, management, and maintenance of mechanical, electrical, plumbing, and control systems, as well as heating, ventilation, air-conditioning (HVAC) system; and maintenance, and equipment upgradation, emergency service work, automatic temperature control, specialty contracting, and energy monitoring services. Its facility services comprise mechanical construction, HVAC service and maintenance, energy audits and retrofits, engineering and design build, constructability evaluation, equipment and materials selection, offsite/prefabrication construction, and sustainable building solutions and practices. The company serves research, acute care, and inpatient hospitals; public and private colleges, universities, research centers and K-12 facilities; sports arenas; entertainment facilities, and amusement rides; passenger terminals and maintenance facilities for rail and airports; government facilities comprising federal, state, and local agencies; hotels and resorts; office building and other commercial structures; multi-family apartments; data centers; and industrial manufacturing facilities. It operates in Florida, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Washington DC, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, and Michigan. The company was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

#3: Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors LLC ($FTAI) +174% = Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors LLC owns and acquires infrastructure and related equipment for the transportation of goods and people in Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, and South America. It operates through three segments: Aviation Leasing, Jefferson Terminal, and Ports and Terminals. The Aviation Leasing segment leases aircraft and aircraft engines. As of December 31, 2020, this segment owned and managed 264 aviation assets, including 78 commercial aircraft and 186 engines. The Jefferson Terminal segment engages in the development of a multi-modal crude oil and refined products handling terminal in Beaumont, Texas; and ownership of various other assets for the transportation and processing of crude oil and related products. The Ports and Terminals segment operates Repauno, a 1,630 acre deep-water port located along the Delaware River; and Long Ridge, which is a 1,660 acre multi-modal port located along the Ohio River. The company also owns and leases offshore energy equipment and shipping containers. It serves operators of transportation and infrastructure networks comprising airlines, offshore energy service providers, energy providers, and shipping lines. The company is externally managed by FIG LLC, an affiliate of Fortress Investment Group LLC. Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors LLC was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

#4: NVIDIA Corporation ($NVDA) +234% = NVIDIA Corporation operates as a visual computing company worldwide. It operates in two segments, Graphics and Compute & Networking. The Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise design; GRID software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; and automotive platforms for infotainment systems. The Compute & Networking segment offers Data Center platforms and systems for AI, HPC, and accelerated computing; Mellanox networking and interconnect solutions; automotive AI Cockpit, autonomous driving development agreements, and autonomous vehicle solutions; and Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms. The company’s products are used in gaming, professional visualization, datacenter, and automotive markets. NVIDIA Corporation sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system builders, add-in board manufacturers, retailers/distributors, Internet and cloud service providers, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, mapping companies, start-ups, and other ecosystem participants. NVIDIA has partnership with Google Cloud to create AI-on-5G Lab. NVIDIA Corporation was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

#5: Abercrombie & Fitch Company ($ANF) +305% = Abercrombie & Fitch Co., through its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty retailer in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Hollister and Abercrombie. It offers an assortment of apparel, personal care products, and accessories for men, women, and kids under the Hollister, Gilly Hicks, Social Tourist, Abercrombie & Fitch, and abercrombie kids brands. The company sells products through its stores; various wholesale, franchise, and licensing arrangements; and e-commerce platforms. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in New Albany, Ohio.

#6: Meta Platforms Inc ($META) +193% = Meta Platforms, Inc. develops products that enable people to connect and share with friends and family through mobile devices, personal computers, virtual reality headsets, wearables, and in-home devices worldwide. It operates in two segments, Family of Apps and Reality Labs. The Family of Apps segment’s products include Facebook, which enables people to share, discover, and connect with interests; Instagram, a community for sharing photos, videos, and private messages, as well as feed, stories, reels, video, live, and shops; Messenger, a messaging application for people to connect with friends, family, groups, and businesses across platforms and devices through chat, audio and video calls, and rooms; and WhatsApp, a messaging application that is used by people and businesses to communicate and transact privately. The Reality Labs segment provides augmented and virtual reality related products comprising virtual reality hardware, software, and content that help people feel connected, anytime, and anywhere. The company was formerly known as Facebook, Inc. and changed its name to Meta Platforms, Inc. in October 2021. Meta Platforms, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.

#7: PulteGroup Inc. ($PHM) +125% = PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the homebuilding business in the United States. The company acquires and develops land primarily for residential purposes; and constructs housing on such land. It offers various home designs, including single-family detached, townhouses, condominiums, and duplexes under the Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, American West, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods brand names. As of December 31, 2020, the company controlled 180,352 lots, of which 91,363 were owned and 88,989 were under land option agreements. It also arranges financing through the origination of mortgage loans primarily for homebuyers; sells the servicing rights for the originated loans; and provides title insurance policies, and examination and closing services to homebuyers. PulteGroup, Inc. has a strategic relationship with Invitation Homes Inc. The company was formerly known as Pulte Homes, Inc. and changed its name to PulteGroup, Inc. in March 2010. PulteGroup, Inc. was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

#8: Fair Isaac Corporation ($FICO) +96% = Fair Isaac Corporation develops analytic, software, and data management products and services that enable businesses to automate, enhance, and connect decisions in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers analytical solutions, credit scoring, and credit account management products and services to banks, credit reporting agencies, credit card processing agencies, insurers, retailers, healthcare organizations, and public agencies. It operates through three segments: Applications, Scores, and Decision Management Software. The Applications segment offers pre-configured decision management applications designed for various business problems or processes, such as marketing, account origination, customer management, fraud, financial crimes compliance, collection, and insurance claims management, as well as associated professional services. The Scores segment provides business-to-business scoring solutions and services, including myFICO solutions for consumers that give clients access to analytics to be integrated into their transaction streams and decision-making processes, as well as associated professional services. The Decision Management Software segment offers analytic and decision management software tools through FICO Decision Management Suite, as well as associated professional services. Fair Isaac Corporation markets its products and services primarily through its direct sales organization; indirect channels; subsidiary sales organizations; and resellers and independent distributors, as well as online. The company was formerly known as Fair Isaac & Company, Inc. and changed its name to Fair Isaac Corporation in July 1992. Fair Isaac Corporation was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

#9: BellRing Brands ($BRBR) +116% = BellRing Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various nutrition products in the United States and internationally. It offers ready-to-drink (RTD) protein shakes, other RTD beverages, powders, nutrition bars, and other products primarily under the Premier Protein and Dymatize brands. The company sells its products through club, food, drug, mass, eCommerce, specialty, and convenience channels. BellRing Brands, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.

#10: Vertiv Holdings Co ($VRT) +257% = Vertiv Holdings Co, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and services critical digital infrastructure technologies and life cycle services for data centers, communication networks, and commercial and industrial environments in the Americas, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It offers power management products, uninterruptible power systems, thermal management products, integrated rack systems, modular solutions, and management systems for monitoring and controlling digital infrastructure that are integral to the technologies used for various services, including e-commerce, online banking, file sharing, video on-demand, energy storage, wireless communications, Internet of Things, and online gaming. The company also provides lifecycle management services, predictive analytics, and professional services for deploying, maintaining, and optimizing these products and their related systems. It offers its products primarily under the Liebert, NetSure, Geist, and Avocent brands. The company serves social media, financial services, healthcare, transportation, retail, education, and government industries through a network of direct sales professionals, independent sales representatives, channel partners, and original equipment manufacturers. Vertiv Holdings Co is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.

Bonus #11: CymaBay Therapeutics Inc. ($CBAY) +267% = CymaBay Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and providing therapies to treat liver and other chronic diseases. Its lead product candidate is seladelpar (MBX-8025), a selective agonist of peroxisome proliferator activated receptor delta for the treatments of autoimmune liver disease, primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). The company also develops MBX-2982 for the disease/condition of hypoglycemia in type 1 diabetics. It has a license agreement with ABW Cyclops SPV LP to support development of seladelpar for the treatment of PBC; and holds a worldwide license from Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to research, develop, and commercialize compounds with activity against an undisclosed metabolic disease target. The company was formerly known as Metabolex, Inc. CymaBay Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Newark, California.

It’s over. You cannot make it all back and the ideas of grandeur you had heading into 2023 are what they are now: either superb or shit. I doubt many traders had middling years. Given the volatility and the rhetoric, you were either tricked and fooled all year long or basked in the glory of a rigged market at the latter end of Pax Americana.

Before it all collapses and the transgendered bull is crucified upon the altar of vengeance, we might have a party — adeptly adored with flags of the rainbow varietal — hosted by the the cherry marines at the US government.

I can wax poetic about the fires to come — but there is a time and place for everything. After all, ’tis the Christmas season and we all do enjoy the paganised bastard version of the birth of Christ transmorphed into a sick and perverse exhibition of wanton consumerism and vacuous celebratory exercises all for the sake of, but not limited to, stupidity.

Then again, I shouldn’t be too harsh, since the years left to all of us are finite and some times some things help reduce the pangs of misery twisting inside of our guts — surveying the landscape of knuckle-dragging submentals enjoying grotesque sized hot dogs and cheesed burgers — filling their fat faces with hot chocolate and sweet drinks from the orient.

All I desire is for quiet and toil — the rest you can have.

I closed the week DOWN 195bps because I was mostly retarded. When juxtaposed against my longer term account, which was +322bps — you can really get the sense of how bad I was out there — like Babe Ruth in the latter days striking out with the Braves.

At any rate, I look forward to closing out the year in style. I haven’t any hedges, so fingers are indeed crossed for a fucking melt up come Monday.

Have a nice weekend catamites.

As world markets steam to fresh highs, the Hang Seng is pinned to 15 year lows. China is communist, after all, even though they pretend to be a capitalistic command economy. Yesterday, out of nowhere, China proposed a bill to limit in game spending. On the surface, this is a good thing because fuck games. It rots the brains of children. On the other hand, there is freedom to contend with. There are some schools of thought that a benevolent government is useful to help its people remain on the right track. We can see the opposite of that here in America, where they indoctrinate children to hate how they look, feel and think.

I’m not sure if the Chinese approach is right — but I know our approach is wrong. Nevertheless, it would BEHOOVE you to glance over at shares of Tencent, $NTES and other China related names and say “this is ok” for an investor. China is a black box and no one knows what’s inside of it.

For the year, $PDD is the star in China, +75%. $BABA used to be the star, until Jack Ma got out of line and was disappeared. They truly had enough of his shit and made sure to make him fuck off for life. Shares of $BABA are down 14% for 2023.

Even so, seasonality is great for Chinese stocks in January and I was thinking about loading up on some of those fuckers before 2023 ended. But I have to admit, the chicanery inside that country gives me pause. This is the reason why, in Stocklabs, I label all companies from China “Chinese Burritos”, as they are some sort of mystery meat — obscure and suspect.

China might be on the move higher as a nation — but their stock market fucking sucks.