As I write this the semis are getting hit again, so it sort of negates what I was going to allude to. But I will furnish my thoughts on this tape overall.
This is a classic capitulation rally, whereby the sellers tripped over themselves this morning to get the fuck out only to have their shares sopped up by Citadel and Blackrock, sending stocks right back the fuck higher. But I also think it’s important to note which stocks are rallying the most. Sure the semis rallied 3% off the lows, now down 1.5% off the highs. But the entire day there was robust strength in specific areas of the economy:
Banks, especially regionals.
Industrials
Small caps, or domestic oriented companies
Transports (airlines, truckers)
In regards to the truckers, a 5% intraday move is completely atypical and points to a broader trend that should be reinforced. The market is pricing in a Trump win.
How do I know this? I am wicked smart, that’s how. I went back to painstakingly researched which stocks did best in November of 2016. I used AI and manual search to ascertain this information and compiled a list of a few dozen stocks and there are definitive areas of the market that benefitted most: namely financials, industrials, and small caps
The NASDAQ is +0.6% now, Russell +2.3% and those Trump era stocks are +2.9% for the session.
I realize the Kamala stans reading this will be infuriated by it and ponder as to the share price action of $META and $AAPL. Believe me, not good. And I know the election isn’t set in stone; but this is what markets are saying now and it could change, so don’t give up hope!
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