Young Jeezy: Get A Lot

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There is no excuse for losing money. Trades go wrong. People get embedded in their ideas. Those ideas go wrong. You forget to use discipline, through cutting losses.

BAM— off with your head.

My short positions in KIM and VNO were stupid. My stubborn attitude towards the market rally did not help my prospects. Instead, it set me back a good 20%. My belief that oil stocks suck cow cock, although accurate, has done nothing but lose-me-money.

I cling to small things, like XOM being down or SRS off the days lows as justification for keeping the positions. In my head, there is no way that I can be wrong. After all, I’ve been doing this shit for years, quite successfully. Then again, in the back of my mind I realize EVERYONE fucks up. And, EVERYONE has a bad year.

Is it time for Senor Tropicana to finally fuck up and drown in a dirty puddle of commercial RE stocks? Or, will he correct his early errors and recapture his former greatness?

All of these questions, and much more, shall be answered in due time. This is like some sort of sick/twisted reality blog, starring “The Fly” and his alter ego “Horatio Clawhammer.”

For the day, I was crushed under a severe short squeeze in Commercial RE stocks, buoyed by direct government intervention in the MBS market. Rates collapsed and people ran for cover. Of course this means nothing, with reference to the long term fundamentals of the Commercial Re market.

Anyway, I bought more SRS @ $49, with a tight stop @ $48.

Also, I sold out of 75% of my FAS position, leaving my FAZ free to run. Incidentally, I made coin on all FAS buys.

I bought more VCLK. I shorted some NOV. And, finally, I initiated positions in AKAM and NITE.

Stay tuned.

NOTE: Small crap stocks gapped higher today. When shit like AMKR runs 20% in a day, watch out below. Just saying.

No bull market is complete without the participation of the duplicitous Chinese Burrito stocks. Oh, do I miss the days when JADE and SORL were sky rocketing, without regard for reason and/or valuation.

Coincidentally, as the smart money has been piling back into equities, Chinese Burrito stocks have been hit or miss—with some taking off, other sort of flat.

At any rate, here is a small list of Chinese firecrackers, that have potential to blow up, in a good way of course.

VISN, GU, EJ, SCR, SOL, YGE, NTE, CSR, AOB and other great names.

But, I warn you: small shit stocks are the last stop for all bull runs. I have been decapitated in small cap stocks, near market tops, numerous times throughout my illustrious career. They are fun while they last; but woeful when the party ends.

Just so you know, there is no fucking way I am buying any of the stocks mentioned above. However, you may find “value” in them.

Of course it can. But, hating Jim Cramer, for his lying ways, can lose you money too.

For example: if you have the dishonorable privilege of reading realmoney.com, you might want to take a fucking howitzer and unload shells on the TSCM HQ, then go short stocks—just because Cramer likes them.

Forget about Cramer. Tune out the noise and listen very quietly. Listen to the rattling chains of zombie stocks, attempting to break loose; then grab hold of them.

Personally, I’ve been trapped inside an idiot box, for the better half of 3 weeks, waiting for some sort of decline. Much to my chagrin, downside trades don’t work, when the markets gap higher 26 fucking percent in a few short weeks.

At any rate, the current trend is up. But, at the same time, the underlying fundies are “gasoline gay.”

With that in mind, cut yourself a clean slate. Get long some cheap names, like AKAM, VCLK, NITE, or even some C. However, be sure to keep some shorts on the sheets and ample amounts of cash.

In this environment, I suggest having no less than 25% in cash.

Back to hate.

I hate all sorts of things, from tanning salons to the perfume section at M. However, that doesn’t stop me from banking coin in light bulb companies, now does it?

I didn’t think so.

At the moment, most unfortunately, my love for America is losing me money, via oil shorts. Look, if I harbored hatred for my country, I’d be buying barrels of oil right now, while burning American flags with Cuban cigars.

Here’s the point:

If you hate America, you can make some serious coin, right about now. Press your blade on the necks of American citizens, via buying commodity stocks, and you will see what I mean. However, remember, there are still a few patriots out there, myself included, who are dedicated to stopping you and saving this great nation, in the process.

God Bless America, you commy bastards.

NOTE: Some patriots I know are short XOM and NOV.

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NOTE: The bigger the cape, the more he is winning.

I’m like the Devil Dog of oil already. This is getting ridiculous. Look, I’ll do the both of us a favor. I’ll stop bitching and complaining about oil, and how only terrorists are long, in order to kill Americans. Instead, I will hold my positions, in a very secret/clandestine sort of way, then fucking surprise you assholes, sometime down the road with a “ha, told you so motherfucker” headline.

There, it’s settled.

Before I continue, remember to keep your bets relatively small. No sector bet in oil should constitute more than 10% of your portfolio, equal to the weighting in the S&P.

Okay, settled.

Look, I just reported 200 of my readers to my local magistrate for supporting terrorism, via buying oil stocks. I have a keen awareness about my surroundings and I know you Russians are out to get me, with your Oligarch ways.

Separate from the world of energy, Obama is appointing a government hack, Panetta, to be CIA boss. What the fuck is wrong with his brain? Isn’t he the same guy who was Chief of Staff for Clinton?

If I might say so, it sounds like more of the same, instead of change.

Fucking shocker.

Into this rally, I like my chances in VCLK, ITW, TBT, C and BAC.

Also, after I am done with this fucking post, I am getting long NITE and AKAM.

Like the old saying goes, “if you can’t beat them to death, trick them by joining them; then beat them to death while they are asleep.”

FLY SELL: I sold 10,000 FAS @ $26.41. I still hold 5,000.

FLY BUYS: I bought 10,000 AKAM @ $16.53. And, I bought 5,000 NITE @ $16.23.

FLY SHORT: I sold short 2,000 NOV @ $30.05.

Click here to view iBC’s dictionary, 2008 edition.

While many market participants live inside a shark bag, in a constant state of fear from, well, the fucking shark, “The Fly” aka “Horatio Clawhammer” has been pole vaulting on you fucking homos since the days of the Civil War (“The Fly” was a stock broker in all of his previous lives).

Today was a rather odd day at the office, as basic resource stocks melted up, while banks were met with brass knuckled jabs to the teeth. Holding a rich cash position, more than 35%, I’ve been pondering over some good pair trades, while sipping, mind you, never drinking, numerous glasses of cognac. Should you ever meet me in person, NEVER ask me to drink with you, for I will not.

Anyway, I’ve concluded that there are many emotionally disturbed individuals with vast sums of dollars at their disposal, hell bent on seeing stocks go up, if only for awhile.

Thus far, I am long select banks, like C and BAC, along with FAS to hedge FAZ. However, that’s just me throwing shit against the wall. Bank stocks are grossly idiotic investments and should always be paired.

Into a rally, as sure as I’m sitting here, internet stocks will catch fire. People love buying those names, when times are good. Hell, already we’ve seen a huge run up in semiconductor names. There is no fucking way semis can run, without a little net action.

The basic fundies of the net are good, with traffic perpetually increasing, as people say “fuck off” to their televisions/newspapers and say “hello” to websites, like iBankCoin.

How can I not be somewhat bullish on the internet?

Anyway, the knee-jerk pick is GOOG, due to their overall dominance. But there are other names worth a look. Plus, I fucking hate google.

For example: AKAM

Generally, CDN’s like Akami have been hammered by price wars and other players entering the field. However, with two of their competitors on the ropes, LLNW and LVLT, AKAM may gain some traction/market share.

If you are willing to buy GOOG, you might as well get long BIDU too, for the love and sake of China.

And my controversial pick is: TSCM

Basically, the site (Thestreet.com) is a fucking albatross on financial sites everywhere. To sum up the site, from one of my French employees, “They fucking suck” (heavy french accent). However, with over $2.50 in net cash, Cramer would have to jump off a bridge or get fired from CNBC or something equally awful, in order to drive shares much lower.

Some other internet related names, with large net cash per share ratios include:

REDF, INSP, DIVX, DRIV, JRJC and VIGN.

It’s also worth noting, my gut check pick is VCLK, as evidenced by my recent purchases.

On the short side, I will remain steadfast in my wild eyed theories that Commercial RE is fucked. Aside from shorting KIM and VNO, TCO, IRC and SLG look somewhat doomful.

Within the banks, TCBI, PRSP, CFR, PACW, PCBC and EWBC look dreadful. I particularly like short Texas banks here, due to my bearish sentiments on crude.

Finally, I am against the inflation trade, as you know. To hedge my bets, I am short t-bills via TBT. But, sticking with the deflation trade, I am aghast by gold stocks up at these levels. Some names worth shooting at include: NEM, LIHR, AU and AEM.

All in all, 2009 will be chockful of many twists and turns. I am sure to fuck up many trades, as well as nail the majority. Nonetheless, the one thing that is a constant in this crazy, crazy world is the glorious victories, which shall be claimed by “The Fly,” with smaller ones by his iBC cohorts.

Moreover, I am sure most of you will encounter Mr. Clawhammer, at some point in your investment careers, while betting against him, in a most disrespectful way—as most beggarly men conduct themselves while cloaked in secrecy. I know this.

However, be made aware, when your little accounts reach the sum of $00.00, you will know why and how to behave, in the presence of unclouded greatness.

Good night.

UPDATE: Maybe you should wake up.

UPDATE II: This was already posted in KOPG. But, it is so funny I had to post it again. Denninger has nothing on this guy.

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Much to your chagrin, oil stocks are teetering out here, as men with intelligence quotients north of 90 sell, in order to avoid the pending collapse. I know “The Fly’s” calls of “pending doom” and “outright death” in the oils can get somewhat repetitive, even cumbersome. However, he does not care, especially since your brains are much smaller than his.

As it stands now, oil stocks need to drop by 20%, in order to reach parity with the price of crude.

Young ladies, we have a serious divergence taking place here, within the energy sector.

Now, you can avoid my musings as more “Fly garble.” Or, you can do something about it, like a fucking man with chest hairs, two guns and a mouth full of chewing tobacco.

For a trade, I like DUG, ERY, short XOM and short RIG.

I sold short 2,000 VNO @ $57.86. And, I shorted 1,000 XOM @ $81.55.

Disclaimer: If you short VNO or XOM because of this post, a rich Saudi oil driller will steal your infidel wife. And, you may lose money.