Much to your chagrin, oil stocks are teetering out here, as men with intelligence quotients north of 90 sell, in order to avoid the pending collapse. I know “The Fly’s” calls of “pending doom” and “outright death” in the oils can get somewhat repetitive, even cumbersome. However, he does not care, especially since your brains are much smaller than his.
As it stands now, oil stocks need to drop by 20%, in order to reach parity with the price of crude.
Young ladies, we have a serious divergence taking place here, within the energy sector.
Now, you can avoid my musings as more “Fly garble.” Or, you can do something about it, like a fucking man with chest hairs, two guns and a mouth full of chewing tobacco.
For a trade, I like DUG, ERY, short XOM and short RIG.
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Day 58. Turn out the lights the ‘09 2nd half recovery bullshit party is over. Heading DOWN to make new lows. Gold DOWN…who knew? That is all.
How bad is MVIS marketing? Judge for yourselves.
MVIS PR text:
SHOW WX uses Microvision’s PicoP™ display engine technology to deliver stunningly colorful, bright, vivid and detailed images.
Accompanying photo for the media to use to show readers an example of those stunningly colorful, bright, vivid and detailed images:
http://mms.businesswire.com/bwapps/mediaserver/ViewMedia?mgid=166814&vid=5&download=1
It looks like a half-developed Polaroid photo projected onto rough stucco.
Dipbuyers making an attempt here?
I am buying more ERX here, my foolish infee-dell friend ($45.70).
And by the Beard Of the Prophet, kennel that Satan’s hound while I am about.
_______
“Or, you can do something about it, like a fucking man with chest hairs, two guns and a mouth full of chewing tobacco.”
Wow. Thanks, Fly. My seven year old son has never been paid a nicer compliment.
ottnott, what’s the problem?
Did I mention the stunning industrial design at MVIS?
http://mms.businesswire.com/bwapps/mediaserver/ViewMedia?mgid=166813&vid=5&download=1
Fly, are you predicting a depression or do you make longer term predictions? Short term trading only?
I am predicting the end of the world
Nos.
http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2009/01/05/oil-stocks-vs-oil-strategy-explored/
POOF!! Your bullshit oil shorts are under water.
MADOFF LIVES!!!
Fuck XOM. I hate this SOB.
Mooo ha hahahahahahahahaaaa!
I am off to incite some Wahhabists to blow up an oil derrick or two. Perhaps I shall donate to a left coast Infidel university promoting this “Peak Oil” nonsense.
As they say at the Sahara Cafe when choosing between the curried grasshopper and the goat cheese scorpion poofs:
“Whatever!”
Be well, Infee-dells!
_________
Another technology toy for the scrap heap.
Fly:
Thought you’d like this……
https://www.slapchop.com/ver4/index.asp
Nice.
“You’re gonna love my nuts.”
MVIS goes to $40 if they hire Vince.
Vince, the SHOW WX guy.
“You’re gonna love my nuts”
http://valleywag.gawker.com/5123786/cnbc-asks-if-steve-jobs-has-pms
Must read, Kneale is a supreme Hat of Ass.
HYG is flying today. If $ is comiong out of treasuries I think a lot has to be going into corp bonds. Let’s face it, baby bommers who lost 40% of their money last year are not going back into stocks. LQD and HYG should have a great run.
If your long oil during this rally, don’t sell just put in a stop…lots of potential for geopolitical events to punch the chest hair off the technical guys and gap higher.
MOS Earnings:
KEY FACTORS
— Operating earnings were $682.0 million, or 22.7% of net sales, up from
$529.6 million, or 24.1% of net sales last year
— Potash operating earnings more than tripled to $547.5 million
— The average diammonium phosphate (DAP) selling price was $1,083 per
tonne and total phosphate sales volumes were 1.2 million tonnes
— The average muriate of potash (MOP) selling price was $529 per tonne
and total potash sales volumes were 1.7 million tonnes
— An inventory valuation write-down of $293.5 million, or $0.41 per
share, was recorded
— Mosaic recorded a gain on the sale of its interest in Saskferco of
$673.4 million, or $1.03 per share
— The Company expects to reduce phosphate and potash production
significantly during the remainder of fiscal 2009
— Results are expected to be weak at least through the fiscal third
quarter
Has anyone actually bought the slapchop? I gotta say, it’s looks pretty cool. I think I’m gonna buy one and slap my nuts around.
http://media.npr.org/blogs/globalpoolofmoney/images/2009/01/fashion.jpg
Mystery:
XOM has $6 in net cash.
Enjoy the run while it lasts. Betting on wars is somewhat, well, inane.
Devildog Says:
Day 58 on Monday…tick…tick…tick…BOOM!!! Bullshit rally destroyed and we head DOWN and undercut the November lows. You’ve been warned. I love this shit!
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:19 pm
(Damn , im been predicting cascade down for the last 5 days and i have been wrong for 5 days…)
Monday NYSE drops 8 points -0.13%… I WON, I WON
I TOLD YOU MARKET IS GOING TO DROP…I WON
I TOLD YOU SO!!!
-0.13% LOSS, IM SO RIGHT
SRS has nice gain today. $80 here we come
T MOE, i hope your fucking right!
180!
My favorite part on MOS:
“Results are expected to be weak at least through the fiscal third
quarter” (Q3=Feb-Apr.’09)
Bet the pain lasts longer than that!
DXO anyone? Its performing pretty well, why fight the tape.
The people of Minnesota must be loons. They elected a Pro Wrestler for Gov. and a bad comedian for US Senator. Ha Ha Ha. What a joke Washington is and will be. Bailouts for all!! The new USSA
What is going to happen with AAPL?
Oil is getting cranked back up! We saw the bottom a few weeks ago.
T MOE, do not forget about me.
Bodybuilder governor. Bad comedian to the House (Sonny Bono). The only crooked Congressman dumber than William “Freezer” Jefferson (Randy Cunningham)
We got it all, baby.
Poor Sonny Bono….
What was the last thing the tree said after Sonny Bono skied into it?
“I’ve got you, babe!”
T-Moe — at least the loons of the Minnesota lakes get to elect their cluetards.
The good people of Noo Yawk are about to have a Dimwit Princess foisted upon them, with nary a squawk.
LOL. Like someone saying — hey Dotty Bush’s got some time with the kids mostly grown — why not make her the Senator from the Great State of Tejas?
Un-ba-fucking-lievable.
________
Jesse Ventura should be president. Norm Coleman was a piece of crap.
Heads up!!! Dojis on most of the indices on an overbought area, im out anyway, but im looking for a rollover to the 20/50 ma and see if it holds. Time to cash chips if you are a bull in the market.
Just a warning…
But they are always stocks in bull mode but you, as a trader, have to be selective…And they are always outperforming the market no matter what…
i think short XOM is a good trade. the investors piling into ‘recovery’ names are nothing more than gamblers that can afford to watch their positions do nothing for 2 yrs. obviously trading is a different story, but the risk/reward of being short XOM here is good. fuck, man, it’s $82. when oil was TRIPLE the current cost, XOM was $90.
Sir Fly,
Whats up with Gold????
Gold price is being suppressed or control by the goverment via GS and JPM…
Shorted XOM heavy today.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MaJy7LH5js
To all the other internet leeches, “… I find your lack of faith disturbing.”
Thanks Fly.
Get Out The Way – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fr_yRxEvSDk
Sell some “nekkid” calls on XOM and make some free money, no?
2009: Massive Stimulus vs. Burst Credit Bubble
As everyone knows, the first trading day of the year got off to quite a strong start, with stocks here about 3% higher. Last night saw more strength in Asia, but Europe did a whole lot of nothing. The market now has rallied about 25% from the lows of November. My guess is that that rally will continue (in fits and starts) probably through the Obama coronation, as expectations continue to run high. In the short run, bad news may be ignored, but eventually I expect it to gain the upper hand, as I don’t think the worst has been discounted yet.
The one thought that kept coming back to me over and over while I was on my vacation was that with the massive amount of stimulus being applied, both fiscally and monetarily, here in America and everywhere around the planet, there will have to be consequences. I find it hard to believe that the outcome will be a state of prolonged deflation.
Obviously, nearly all asset classes have been under pressure due to the huge forces of liquidation and the business destruction that occurred during late 2008. But even given this tremendous break in the price of so many items, thus far the CPI on an annualized year-over-year basis has not plunged into negative territory (though it might). In fact, if the CPI were not so dramatically understated due to hedonics, it would still be showing a year-over-year mid-single-digit positive number. That, according to John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics.
It Must Follow, As Night the Day: Deflation Will Not Hold Sway
Even if we were to see a negative inflation (deflation) rate for a few months, it’s hard for me to believe that a sustained period of actual deflation (i.e., your dollar buying you more goods and services for a year or two) would be the enduring outcome. I continue to feel that until the dollar (and ultimately the bond market) cracks — which would in effect prevent the Fed from monetizing everything it intends to monetize — inflation will be the more likely consequence of the government’s actions. In other words, to me all roads still lead to inflation. (Ironically, the fear of deflation is what helps insure the opposite outcome.)
In my opinion, 2009 will provide ample opportunities both on the short and long sides. For investors, I expect that the long side will be much safer later in the year, though folks who are good traders may enjoy plenty of opportunities all year. Folks should not be in a hurry to “force” a trade, which tends to create losses. As always, I think patience will be rewarded. We will soon get first-quarter preannouncements, earnings reports, and future earnings guidance, I think that the market’s response to the news will help set the tone for how one wants to navigate the year, hopefully making it easier to flesh out a roadmap for equities — both for long ideas and short ideas.
Turning to today’s action, the market was initially lower by about 1%, but then rallied such that the indices were off just fractionally. Beneath the surface, it was a mixed bag, though it did seem to me that technology, housing, cyclical and energy stocks were the best performers early in the day. The market spent the morning and early afternoon trying to push higher, but in the end, the averages all finished with small losses. The early form basically held, though most tech stocks gave up their gains, while housing stocks remained quite firm. All in all, I don’t think there’s much to read into today, as it was just some indigestion after Friday’s huge party.
Oil: Not Just for the Tin Man?
Away from stocks, bonds were clubbed again after their drubbing on Friday. Oil was higher by 4% as it continued its bounce from Wednesday and Friday. As regular readers know, I have not held much of an opinion about oil for several years now. That, due to my inability to get my arms around the global economic demand for oil and especially the wildcard of China. (I suspected the price of base metals and oil would tank if the U.S sank into recession in the wake of the burst real-estate bubble — but I wasn’t sure, and thus I remained agnostic about them.)
However, I do think that oil in the $30s might be an attractive price, and I intend to spend more time looking at energy this year. For whatever it’s worth, I actually bought oil for a trade on Wednesday, though I’ve since sold it. (I’ll probably be much more trading oriented this year because of the enormous forces at work — both those that would tend to push stocks/commodities higher (i.e., massive stimulus), as well as those that would tend to push prices down (think weak economic activity).
Turning to currencies, the euro basis the dollar was off by better than 2%, continuing its weakness from late last week. I am not exactly sure what precipitated the dollar’s bounce after its recent decline. Perhaps it has something to do with optimism over the U.S. economy — which, perversely, is based on the stimulus that in my opinion will ultimately be the dollar’s undoing.
Meanwhile, today’s strength in the dollar saw gold — the only item other than bonds to have appreciated in 2008 — smacked for 3%. Ditto for silver. I’m not sure why they were extra-weak today, as base metals were higher and platinum was only modestly weaker. Apparently, there must have been a fair amount of hot money in them at year-end, which is now in the process of being shaken out. In any case, I expect that gold and gold stocks will have quite a good year. Depending on how this current setback in gold sorts out, it might create a buying opportunity for folks looking to increase their metals exposure.
Sonny Bono was not a bad comedian – he was a bad singer and bad skier. Vince will do a two for one deal for MVIS – the slap chopper and the MVIS thing together – he’ll sell a million of ’em!
Our SOUTHERN FRIEND…..
Watch this video= GOLD
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IE3vIcL78FE
Eric, ‘the Oil Barrel’ Bolling, dares to disagree with Sir The Le Fly, regarding earl.
Fly,
You write,
“I am predicting the end of the world”
and,
“Enjoy the run while it lasts. Betting on wars is somewhat, well, inane.”
So what do you think is going to either lead to or be a result of the ‘end of the world’, table tennis finals?
I’m betting on wars. Quick bets, mind you.
Nice cover pic.
Is that the ERX crack in that purty gal’s phial?
________
Past Performance
Return (2 days) 21.79% Annualized Return 423,530,817,083,356,416.00% Max Drawdown 0.00%
High 21.79% Volatility 179%
Low 3.95% Sharpe Ratio 2,371,909,362,595,838.00
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=30143
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajQbVN8S5Ep4&refer=home
LOL — Whomever wrote Chivas’s article about Pelosi changing the House rules to ramrod legislation must be a loyal Fly follower:
Pelosi’s proposed repeal of decades-long House accountability reforms exposes a tyrannical Democrat leadership poised to assemble legislation in secret, then goose-step it through Congress by the elimination of debate and amendment procedures as part of America’s governing legislative process.
___
This link is to the guy FLY posted the other day titled our “Southern Friend”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IE3vIcL78FE
When I said GOLD in the other post, I meant it as meaning funny… not actual gold.
ROTFLMAO!!!!!
Pelosi is one very strange person…reminds me of Jim Cramer in a nice dress and in need of Meds
Cramer is so fucking bullish today about 2009. He’s posted a couple pieces he wrote for Realmoney — it’ll make you sick. If anyone wants me to post his 2009 piece, I will. Not sure if I should tarnish this thread with the Boo-Yah man himself.
let me know if you want to see it. Otherwise, watch walstreetpro on youtube and have a good laugh.
thanks for the fleck piece, whomever posted it.
also, mike, you should post the cramer stuff. it’s always good for a laugh.
That’s gonna smell…
Either Crammer is stupid or he is on the take…
And he ain’t stupid..