My bones feel some sort of ominous shift in investor sentiment, away from the half hazard recommendation of James Cramer to the benevolent stewardship of men, like Senor Tropicana. Depressions do not end with 1 1/2 years of “fuck you, you’re dead” trading, then back to “party like it’s 1999, with coke” action.
It will be a long grind, before we start lining up the dedicated bears for castration.
With my money, I went to cash on a few positions, namely [[TQNT]], [[TLAB]] and half of [[CIEN]]. And, following my natural tendency to despise oil, I initiated a position in [[SCO]].
With regards to oil:
I am early to short it. However, I believe, in time, I will be proven correct, betting against it near $50.
As for my short exposure:
I am long SSG, FAZ, FXP and SRS. And, I am short [[ACC]]. I am not naive to believe the market is going to dump out here, and dive to new lows. But, at a minimum, we are overdue a correction to the tune of 10%.
However, there are many of you who still believe in mustard seeds and endless “bottoming out action,” as evidenced by subtle strength in select banks like [[C]], [[COF]], [[BAC]], [[MS]] and [[GS]] this morning.
So, my gameplan is to stay light by avoiding big directional bets. At the present, my cash position is approaching 20% and my shorts a little more than 50%. I will not jump on or off any bandwagons. Instead, I will wait for good entry points for long trades, since my short exposure is already bountiful.
Bottom line: Keeping shorts against banks/CRE in place and initiating a bearish position in crude. For now, leaving existing longs in place, just in case the asshole dip buyers emerge. And, use market weakness to purchase semiconductor stocks.
NOTE: The UK upped its stake in [[RBS]] to 70%. As a result, most European banks are getting slammed, namely, [[DB]], [[BCS]], [[LYG]] and [[UBS]]. I am a bit surprised U.S. banks are not down more.
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