“The Fly” Meets Mr. Exxon

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I will cease and desist from offering false hope of doom. As always, I expect the best and hope for the worst—only when I’m short stocks, of course.

Today’s tape is a fucking joke. The sellers are NOWHERE, and I mean NOWHERE to be found. It is almost as if the government found out who they were and locked them in a storage facility.

If you’re short this market, you are not pleased with today’s tepid action. For Pete’s sake, the oil inventory data was 8X’s worse than expected, yet XOM is down a stick.

Fuck me on a spindle.

Frankly, I’ve had enough of this bullshit. I may just leave my business to my underlings and take my show on the road. I can do stand up comedy, inside banks—wearing a ski mask. Or, I can go fishing, inside shopping malls, near water fountains.

Needless to say, I need the keys to Zion. I need to find you fuckers, who escaped the Matrix, and have my robots murder your heads off.

Listen up you fucking fagots, the dollar is not going down in 2009. How about that?

And, on top of that, your local lender over there, that little piece of shit WFC, is going to dilute the shenanigans out of their idiotic shareholder base.

May your inheritance be fully invested in shares of SAY.

As an aside, with my money, I am semi-retired. I am into eating sandwiches and celebrating birthdays, on a daily basis. I don’t have time for this January shit.

Top picks: Turkey and mustard.

NOTE: A fine chart to get long on, indeed.

How much bad news do you want?

We have fraud at one of India’s revered IT firms, SAY. The whole country is without work, according to ADP. INTC shit the shower. Retail sales are a joke. They’re actually clown funny. House prices are still dropping. Although rates are dropping, jumbo mortgages are still pricey. And, to top it off, banks are going to need to write off another $40 billion, during the first quarter, according to analyst Meredith Whitney.

Amazingly enough, despite all the bad news, the market is hanging in there, sort of.

Over the past week, like it or not, the biggest winners have been the worst names, such as FIG, MCGC and ACAS. Everyone has been making such a big deal over the rally; yet, year to date, we are up less than 3%.

If Friday’s employment data is similar to today’s ADP data, look for sentiment to turn on a dime. The tone for January started bullish, but can end in a fucking clown cannon, on its way for a field of string beans, if you know what I mean.

Due to my bearish sentiments, I sold out of a variety of longs this morning, including ITW, BAC and half of my C.

At the present, I am holding AKAM, VCLK, NITE, C and a little FAS, just to name a few. Just so you know, I own lots of stocks, in small quantities. The point: I have reduced my long exposure to 15%.

At the same time, I couldn’t help myself, I bought some SSG (short semi’s) @ $71 and more SRS @ $52.50.

Although I am skeptical of this decline, due to my recent short sale mishaps. I have the confidence of a hungry mountain lion, trapped inside a conference room filled with 3rd tier bloggers, that I will be right, in due time.

Top picks: short NOV, short XOM, short KIM.

NOTE: I bought DUG @ $23.25.

I sold out of my ITW, north of $36.30. I sold out of my BAC position, north of $14. And, I sold 50% of my C position, around $7.30.

With Enron type fraud taking place at Indian IT firm SAY, coupled with abysmal ADP data here in the states, the market should (finally) get the stuffing kicked out of it today. Naturally, due to being slapped around in my shorts, as of late, I am not emphatic about the market staying down all day.

In an odd twist of lunacy, asshole dip buyers may buy this tape. However, I have made my bed and now intend to sleep in it, dead or alive.

Over the past week, I have built up a decent long portfolio, which includes stocks such as ITW, VCLK, C, BAC, AKAM, NITE and even a little FAS. I sold out of most of my FAS yesterday. And, much to my delight, I have a pretty awesome short position in XOM, which, incidentally, is the anti-Christ. Therefore, I am doing the Lord’s work here.

Anyway, I will not add to any shorts into this blackhole of a tape. Instead, I will release some longs, in the event some of you fucking dicks buy today’s decline.

At the present, I am 45% short, 25% long and 30% cash. Year to date, I am down about 6%.

Down by more than 6%.

Let 2009 begin.

In the year of the Great Lamb, truculent men, made from iron and smoke, will afflict colossal catastrophe to the third estate.

In the year of the Great Fox, sand and stone will amass on the grounds of Cathay, sending its residents into unfrequented quarters, where they will be met with scarcity and pestilence.

UPDATE: What year am I?

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There is no excuse for losing money. Trades go wrong. People get embedded in their ideas. Those ideas go wrong. You forget to use discipline, through cutting losses.

BAM— off with your head.

My short positions in KIM and VNO were stupid. My stubborn attitude towards the market rally did not help my prospects. Instead, it set me back a good 20%. My belief that oil stocks suck cow cock, although accurate, has done nothing but lose-me-money.

I cling to small things, like XOM being down or SRS off the days lows as justification for keeping the positions. In my head, there is no way that I can be wrong. After all, I’ve been doing this shit for years, quite successfully. Then again, in the back of my mind I realize EVERYONE fucks up. And, EVERYONE has a bad year.

Is it time for Senor Tropicana to finally fuck up and drown in a dirty puddle of commercial RE stocks? Or, will he correct his early errors and recapture his former greatness?

All of these questions, and much more, shall be answered in due time. This is like some sort of sick/twisted reality blog, starring “The Fly” and his alter ego “Horatio Clawhammer.”

For the day, I was crushed under a severe short squeeze in Commercial RE stocks, buoyed by direct government intervention in the MBS market. Rates collapsed and people ran for cover. Of course this means nothing, with reference to the long term fundamentals of the Commercial Re market.

Anyway, I bought more SRS @ $49, with a tight stop @ $48.

Also, I sold out of 75% of my FAS position, leaving my FAZ free to run. Incidentally, I made coin on all FAS buys.

I bought more VCLK. I shorted some NOV. And, finally, I initiated positions in AKAM and NITE.

Stay tuned.

NOTE: Small crap stocks gapped higher today. When shit like AMKR runs 20% in a day, watch out below. Just saying.

No bull market is complete without the participation of the duplicitous Chinese Burrito stocks. Oh, do I miss the days when JADE and SORL were sky rocketing, without regard for reason and/or valuation.

Coincidentally, as the smart money has been piling back into equities, Chinese Burrito stocks have been hit or miss—with some taking off, other sort of flat.

At any rate, here is a small list of Chinese firecrackers, that have potential to blow up, in a good way of course.

VISN, GU, EJ, SCR, SOL, YGE, NTE, CSR, AOB and other great names.

But, I warn you: small shit stocks are the last stop for all bull runs. I have been decapitated in small cap stocks, near market tops, numerous times throughout my illustrious career. They are fun while they last; but woeful when the party ends.

Just so you know, there is no fucking way I am buying any of the stocks mentioned above. However, you may find “value” in them.