18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
I don’t have anything good to say and I don’t have anything to boast about. I find myself, oddly enough, speechless, in what can only be described as decapitated. This is a good hard lesson for me, something I might talk about until the day I die, or not. One thing is for certain, I’ve gone too far than to see my resolve shrink now.
I will pray to all of the Gods, both old and new, in order to make my stocks go higher. I will smoke some hopium and base investment decisions upon the eyes of sacrificed goats.
There is no form of compensation worth the angst I receive from doing this disgusting job. I’d be better off shoveling shit in Louisiana than buying and selling stocks like a carnivale monkey.
The boogieman is still there, under the bed, waiting to snatch the market’s feet.
Futures reversed off -13 to now +4, which is great. Italian and Spanish yields are dropping and the CAC is up almost 1%. Everything seems to be going well, except for the fact that NOTHING has changed, structurally. I hope to the heavens, and all that is dark and sinister, that I too can enjoy a respite this morning. Instead of having my face devoured by a “Miami Zombie”, I’d like to look at my trading platform without horror, reticent to do anything but wallow in profits.
Instead, I’m afraid my destiny is one of rocks, iron, ash and smoke.
Japanese markets are at 28 year lows, down 9 weeks in a row. The fucking Heng Seng is trading 6x earnings and our markets are for shit.
On paper, we should rally today, especially since futures reversed higher and France is up; but we won’t. As soon as this fucker opens, all of the assholes will start selling again, turning my smile upside down.
In the event that we do rally, a fucking miracle of sorts, I like NXPI, CLF and TEX. AG is one of my larger positions and feel it will begin to benefit from gold/silvers resurgence as safe haven. I’d like to say “YELP is homosexually cheap”; but how can I when the stock sucks dick? The social media craze is over, unfortunately. But YELP should not be tethered to Facebook, since it can be acquired and deserves a premium.
Bottom line: there are too many weak hands out there and without news flow to cut the sacks off the bears, I’m afraid this market is nothing more than a giant fucking sinkhole, where money goes to die.
Supporters of Germany’s moral high ground say “why should the hard working, industrious, Germans pay for the sloth of its neighbors?”
Is it really that simple?
When the euro was created, the architects encouraged European institutions to buy the sovereign debt of all members countries, including Greece, Italy, Spain Ireland etc. The Germans knew they’d benefit because the euro would ensure that no one could undercut them via currency devaluation. They had successfully stripped Europe of its independence and locked members–and the institutions who bought sovereign debt– into a currency prison.
Aside from Greece, there aren’t any cash calls in Spain and Italy. The panic is spreading, forcing yields up, and giving the perception that everything is about to unravel. Confidence is everything. As money flees troubled states, it swarms into German banks, pushing their borrowing rates to record lows.
It’s quite nice to be a German today, no?
On top of that, the Germans refuse to monetize troubled states debt, instead forcing them into austerity. The result is a downward spiraling economy for the austerity stricken, crippled by an overvalued currency and inability to provide stimulus for their beleaguered economies. Is this simply a case of Germany taking the moral high ground, drawing a line in the sand in an effort to protect their tax payers?
Fuck no.
The Germans know what they are doing and it has nothing to do with taking the moral high ground. They are creating this crisis in order to maintain German manufacturing superiority and to finance their own mountains of debt at extraordinarily low interest rates.
How can you have a common currency with 16 other nations and fail to guarantee their debts? Is it preferable to see the entire Eurozone collapse, eliminating the idea of credit and prosperity, just so Merkel and co. and say “we took the moral high ground?”
THEY SHOULD HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT THIS SHIT BEFORE THEY ENTERED THE EURO!!!
If the euro collapses, forget about stocks even trading. How could they, if they won’t have a currency to denominate into? Markets will crash, then close. Eurozone GDP will fall by at least 25%, taking Asia and America with it. Unemployment will soar and Germany will be able to borrow money for free.
Members of The PPT know it has been locked in OVERBOUGHT mode since December of 2011, meaning it missed out on the early year run up. We have a system in place that buys TZA/TNA with spectacular 3 year results. There were three purchases of TZA in early 2012 that were very much underwater for a long time. However, thanks to the recent dip, those purchases may prove to be eventful or at a minimum hardly damaging to the system’s track record.
I will not reveal what the Overall Hybrid is flagging, out of respect for paying members of this elite club. However, I will tell you breadth is incredibly low and certain ETFs are being flagged OS, alongside a wide array of equities.
Here is the data on DIG.
My heart wants the market to bounce on Monday; but my brain says we will flush out a little more before a respite is delivered. Either way, we’re closer now to being legitimately OVERSOLD than at anytime since late 2011.
I had my reasons and made a commitment to invest with the idea that 2012 would be devastating for the global economy. I entered 2012 heavily long high beta names and quickly exited them after realizing a quick 20% gain. I chilled, then chilled some more. Instead of chasing, I put 25% of my holdings in TLT under $115 and started a VXX position. But the market wasn’t listening to my warnings. Instead, it ran, then ran some more.
I caved.
I blew out of my TLT for a break-even to small loss and sold VXX for a bloody loss. The PPT provided me with a precise course of action, guiding me into TZA three times, pinning me to the wall as the market climbed. I sold that too.
The markets ripped daily and I wanted in. I bought the top.
My 20% gains turned into a 3% loss inside of three fucking months. My core beliefs of decay and destruction for the global economy have become my own reality due to hubris, greed and stupidity. I now find myself rooting for something that I despise and deem ridiculous. I know there is no way out, yet rationalize my position supported by fairy tales.
Since I bought the top, I fear selling the bottom. Psychology is a fucked up thing and cuts deep when trading millions of dollars.
You might think I am joking about the prospect of this market dropping 10%+ Monday if nothing is done; but I am not kidding. I haven’t smiled in weeks and find myself clinging onto sanity by a thread. I should be selling, reducing risk into the riskiest weekend the world has ever seen.
This is a mea culpa, an admittance of failure, served cold in the midst of a blazing bear market.
Several months ago, while having a fireside chat, I proposed the idea that the markets would plummet immediately following the Facebook offering. Some of the gentlemen at the conference were so disturbed by my comments they picked up their top hats, put down their glasses brimming with brandy, and left. Well, post Fuckbook offering, I think it’s fair to say the market is fucked.
Is it merely a coincidence?
I think not.
I bet the fucking Germans are spreading their delusional messages of austerity on Facebook right now, as you read this!
Look, Rick Santelli is a fucking demon. He’s an evil Tea Party guy, with insane ideas and a stupid grin. Don’t get me wrong, I kind of like the guy, but would have no choice but to kill him if I was in a position of power.
Moving on. I am so glad that I sold my fucking house in favor of another. It’s a wonderful time to sink 100’s of thousands of cold hard cash into a depreciating asset. Also, I can’t wait until Mrs. Fly starts to hire contractors, all reviewed and screened through ANGI.
In closing: The Social Media debacle is upon us and Greece is nothing more than a shit bucket at the side of the swimming pool. If you are reliant upon VC cash for your trash, PREPARE TO FILE BANKRUPTCY PAPERS.
I will not besmirch our fine African President for mismanaging the economy. I shall not talk shit about the fucking Germans and their aversion to reason. I cannot fix what’s already broken and force policy makers to do what they were born to do: initiate POMO.
My position has been highlighted as being a game of chicken against the numbers. I’ve been telling the world deflation is a horrible reality and inflation is nothing but a mirage. Today the veil is being lifted off the ugly bitches face and she looks like a fucking German. As a result of my faith and recklessness, I will delve into negative territory today, likely to the tune of -3%, putting my peak to trough at -23% over the past two months. This is exactly what happened to me last year and I fucking hate my job more than anyone in the world right now.
I am going to make this very simple for you. If there is no policy response by Sunday night, we are going lower by 10%+ on Monday. The sense of urgency has never been greater. Berlusconi is the only one who seems to get it, making these eloquent comments regarding the fucking Germans this morning:
“Here’s my crazy idea; Let’s start printing euros ourselves,” Mr Berlusconi told an assembly of his center-right People of Liberty party’s parliamentary deputies.
“Germany should leave the euro if it doesn’t agree with the European Central Bank serving as a lender of last resort.”
Okay? Germany needs to either support the creation of new euros or leave the union. There should not be separate borrowing rates for Spain or Italy or Germany: fuck that. If they are all under the same currency, there should be just 1 central bank: the ECB. The EU should borrow money on behalf of all member states and all debt should be guaranteed by said central bank. There is no alternative. You either go all in or get the fuck out.
In closing: it’s gonna get ugly and this could be the best buying opportunity of the year. I am guessing The PPT will finally register an OS signal; but that remains to be seen. I will not be selling today because I’ve resigned myself to death by battle ax. Tighten up your belts and watch out for those fucking murderholes because they are everywhere this morning.
My right hand men, ChessnWine and Ragin Cajun (happy b-day), nailed this move from the beginning, unlike me. They saw the news, got scared, obeyed their rules, and went to cash. The result: they can buy my margin liquidations, if I was unfortunate enough to have one.
My position right now is a very dangerous one: a game of chicken against the bond vigilantes, mathematics and reason, siding with the unknown hand behind the Treasury curtain. I know people like to believe it’s all about Ben and Tim, but it’s not. Those two ham and eggers are spokesmen for the US government and her interests, nothing more. Now if I was basing my positions solely on reason, mathematics and all of the other things, I’d be short stocks now.
After all, the writing is all over the wall, is it not? Deflation is sucking the life out of the global economy. High quality paper are hardly yielding anything. The US government, as fucked as it is, can borrow money for 10 years at less than 1.6%. How cool is that? The reason they are able to do that is because of bank runs. All of the money is fleeing weak balance sheets in favor of strong: German, Switzerland, Denmark, UK, even French.
What’s especially odd about this rout of Europe is the immunity of France. Last year French yields spiked because of their exposure to Italy. However, now, they are tanking. What’s changed? The only explanation: the market is trying to price in the collapse of the Euro, meaning France will not bail out anyone. We might be entering the end game in Europe, providing policy makers do nothing.
Should they do nothing?
Under a do nothing scenario, stocks will crash. Economies will grind to a halt and life as you know it will change. I am fairly certain, under a full retard scenario, the markets will close, possibly for months until shit gets figured out. They’d have to do this in order to avoid bank runs.
My advice to you: keep the majority of your net worth out of the market. It’s okay to play with stocks, since we all like to gamble. But it won’t be funny if your net worth gets halted for trading for 6 months, while you starve to death in your fucking Mcmansion. This advice applies to short sellers too. Your fantastic tailwinds will be kept away from your purse, if the markets go on holiday.
I’ve always kept ample amounts of money and coin in my personal safes, one at home, two others in safe deposit boxes. Also, be sure to keep a few months worth of food in your fucking garage, and a loaded pistol under your bed to fend off the zombie hordes.
Don’t laugh at the shit I am telling you now: be very afraid, fuck face, for the end of times is no joke.
In short, this is all tracking in accordance to the Mayan calendar, in the strictest of ways. Now that you know how the story will end, prepare for it.
Short terms yields in Denmark and Switzerland are NEGATIVE, meaning you have to pay them for the right to lend them money. American yields are at record lows and the Eurozone is undergoing one giant bank run.
The markets do not reflect the severity of the situation.
This is as bad as it gets. The markets are tame because people believe QE3 or some bailout is around the corner. If we do not get either, bear with me as I prepare this next sentence: WE ARE GOING DOWN 5,000 DOW POINTS IN SHORT ORDER.
Rumors that Greece cannot secure credit to buy oil, are running rampant, and have been forced to secure it from large European corporations, with onerous conditions. Spanish and Italian credit is in danger too, which is why oil is tanking so hard. See, boys and girls, that’s what deflation does. Credit is non-existant and money becomes scarce. Food, oil and basic materials will not be delivered. Your local grocery store will not have food on the shelves, unless the government steps in and provides credit.
You’re all so frightened of Bernanke and his dastardly printing presses. Well, small pleb, prepare for death by famine if this shit is allowed to unravel.
NOTE: The James Gorman, CEO OF MARGIN STANLEY, interview on CNBC was a crock of shit and pretentious. He called Facebook ipo buyers “naive” if they thought they’d make money on day 1. What a fucking asshat.
