The Best Trade is Always the Avoided One

Back when I was a pleb, I rode a stock from $45 to $2. It was during the dot bomb burst and those types of occurrences were in abundance. The original thesis behind the trade was a “chart, breakout, above some homosexual neckline.” This fucking stock– single handedly– destroyed my business and blew up my personal account beyond repair.

It threw my career into a tailspin and sullied my reputation at the firm. My production levels plunged from $100k per month to $20k, aka an ordinary Joe on Wall Street. Truth be told, if you’re not banking $500k on Wall, you’re wasting your time. Get to work.

Back to my catastrophe. I allowed a “technical” trade become fundamental. Then I convinced myself not to sell because “it was already too cheap.” Well, the cheap got cheaper, then it got perverse. The same could be said about those who chased coal down the sewer pipe.

How do you avoid such things?

The answer is simple: don’t buy stocks in industries under duress.

My blow up occurred in tech. Back then, their balance sheets were impaired and credit got tight, real tight, at the very worst time. Fast forward to today, coal, natural gas, alternative energy, solar and steel are all under pressure. Before buying a stock, know the balance sheet and avoid any name that might have an issue raising money.

Sure, CLF looks attractive and the stock is “real cheap.” But their business is intertwined with the very worst global de-growth has to offer. With a market trading at 13x, you have no excuses for chasing shit down the rabbit hole. There are countless names, trading at reasonable valuations, worth investment. Also, I tend to avoid names that have fucked up earnings reports, like FIO, DELL, HPQ.

Why gamble on a loser, when there are fucking winners out there? An analogy of sorts for iBankCoin versus the competition.

BONUS: Top 15 technically ranked stocks by The PPT.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IK7h1tnRiwA

PCX, JRCC and others plunged today amidst rumours of imminent bankruptcy filings. Who would have thought the coal industry would have gone kaput under the Obama administration?

With every death comes a birth. As I sit here in the scalding hot weather, enduring temperatures that haven’t been seen since the grounds of Carthage were salted, I had an epiphany.

Milk the farmer.

Why the fuck not?

Those silly bastards are going crazy trying to salvage an already ruined corn crop. They will be forced to invest in irrigation systems and bulk up on fertilizer. The food supply as we know it is in jeopardy. I believe the United Steaks will begin importing grain from South America soon, if not already. This is a great blight on a nation filled with blights.

I want to be long excessive amounts of MOS. Therefore, into the bell, I bought more.

I want to own VMI, LNN and maybe some MON. I want it all.

In the hallowed halls of The PPT, one of the most reliable and trustworthy signals was flagged today. If you weren’t such misers, you’d know about it.

All in all, today was a set up day, where the weak got hoodwinked by the pinless hand grenade action in coals and other basic materials, while everything else set up for explosion. You need to be in the right sectors and industries, small man. Most of you are too inexperienced or stupid to see the forest through the trees. Take it from a space alien magician (SAM), with over 15 years in professional money management: it’s dangerous to be short here.

European markets were barely down. The Euro is up, as well as commodities. The only thing that can be pointed to as a negative is rising Spanish and Italian yields. But what is gold and silver telling us?

Have you seen corn today? That fucker is up more than 5%, based off dust bowls forming in the heartland.

Call me crazy, but I want to be long ag and silver. I want to own MOS, EXK and maybe a little LNN at lower prices. My holdings no longer revolve around the caprices of YELP. I have other fish to fry, some very delicious indeud. My newly minted RBCN position has shorts in knots, beating them to death with iron clubs. JCP is going down in a very orderly manner, a true gentleman of the exchange. Frankly, despite the somber tone, there is nothing to fear in this tape. It’s just an ordinary down day.

You’re better off eating a bag of sandwiches than trying to short this tape. I am telling you now, it is a bag of lit dynamite sticks waiting to explode.

I never knew how much shit I owned until I had to pack it all into boxes. Without a doubt, the garbage men who are “lucky” enough to pick up my trash hate me. The amount of money that I’ve wasted on toys, clothes and odd items is staggering.

Mrs. Fly wanted me to give the garbage men $100 “for their trouble.” However, I overslept and didn’t get the “opportunity” to throw them some soft dollars. On top of that, my brand new refrigerator has a condensation issue and is collecting ice under the freezer, which is causing it to leak, every so often. I’ve contacted the fucked-faces at Samsung; but they aren’t too interested in my plights.

After I move to the new house, Mrs. Fly has 10 years worth of renovations scheduled, in her never ending attempts to bankrupt me. I am sure she sits in a dark room plotting ways to ruin me. It must come as a great surprise to her how the money keeps flowing in. She’s never asked how I make so much money. I assume she believes I am in the mafia, rubbing out people for sport and leisure. Nonetheless, I cannot wait to breathe in some fresh sheet rock and step on some wet paint.

As for this market: it looks tired. It needs to unwind and go on vacation. Some of my stocks look good, like RBCN. But on the whole, there is nothing here to get excited about. I tried my hand with nuts on Friday, buying up DMND. But that’s gone to shit today, alongside everything else. Let’s see if any buyers step in later on today.

With over 1,000 plebs banned from reading iBankCoin, I would like to take this opportunity to declare an unmitigated victory. Your dog brains were in “full retard” mode just a few weeks ago, talking shit to me, here in the halls of iBC and on Twitter. Since then, as fate would have it, you’ve been dispatched.

I won again and you are still you, a loser of the first order.

Now I want you to take this to heart because it’s a message that must be delivered with spite and vengeance. You will NEVER supplant or sully me into humiliating defeat. The proverbial “L” will always be in your ledger, as “The Fly” makes it a habit to kick men like you down sewer pipes and subway steps.

There will be pitfalls before every triumph. There will be circumstances, in the future, when the dogs from the sewer come to iBC and spread propaganda about my defeat; but the end result will be EXACTLY the same: victory for yours truly.

Now I’ve been bowling on you fuckers since 2007. My market hand is unmatched in all of the internets. Every so often, I get bored from winning and go on siesta, allowing you fucking morons to catch up. But rest assured, as long as there are stocks to be traded, I will reign supreme; dollars to donuts, you will lose betting against my prospects.

With gains of 24%, year to date, “The Fly” spits on your trailer homes from atop his pyramid made from gold.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IK7h1tnRiwA

During Friday’s sell-off, in The PPT, several prominent ETFs flagged OVERSOLD, one being XLB (basic materials).

Here is the track record of the OS on XLB over the past 12 months.

Understand, we are looking for “an edge”, not the holy grail. There is a mathematical advantage to buying such dips in XLB, with better than moderate results.

Just in case you were curious, here are the holdings inside the XLB ETF.

This was a very strong close, on a day when the bulls should have been routed. I changed my mind and bought some DMND for a squeeze, leaving me with a cash position of 35%.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4RgFcFRtDo

I am putting my nuts on the table for this one.

I bought DMND.

Let’s review, shall we?

We’ve enjoyed a terrific run, but Europe closed at 5 week lows.

Spanish and Italian yields are 7% and 6% respectively, aka “too high.”

The euro is hitting new lows, down in the $1.22 area.

Global growth has been stinted by the ongoing European crisis.

If you are like me, up near annual highs, despite the global doom, consider yourself fortunate and treat yourself to a vacation. You don’t have to travel to some island, dining on near-extinct animals and enjoying lavish gratuities. Sell out of your shit and take a break. The market is in the process of figuring out if it should give it all back, AND MORE, or run higher based upon the prospect of counterfeit money.

I will not pull any punches with you. As a matter of fact, I’m more inclined to offer you a full-sized punch to the nose, than care about your plights. However, since we are in this together, I will tell you what you need to be told.

TODAY IS NOT THE DAY. You shouldn’t buy this dip, for another one might be lurking around the proverbial corner.

I am in sell mode and will likely push my cash position to upwards of 50% by the end of the day. I do not care about missing out because I have already won. Therefore, I deem is paramount above all other things to preserve my gains until an easier trade arises.

A milquetoast jobs report was exactly what the bearshitter ordered. As a result, markets are in plunge mode. I am not sure these numbers were weak enough to warrant any Fed action. Better late than never: now is a good time to step aside and watch the carnivale clowns throw fire bombs at each other.

Do I really need to be stock specific?

My 25% cash position will be bigger by the end of the day. I don’t have time to fuck around with bullshit and would rather cut my own head off than manage money through another swoon.

UPDATE: I sold out of CMI, bringing my cash position to 40%.

UPDATE II: The market is too oversold to short, so I will do nothing.

UPDATE III: This is why I am not shorting.

The PPT Algos flagging OS on QLD.