Enjoy “The Black Lung” Plays, Courtesy of President Romney

“Clean coal” will be all the rage once Romney gets in. As you know, Obama is an oil man, subject of middle eastern oil magnates. On the other hand, Romney is beholden to the good folks from the Appalachia, the West Virginians mining for black coal as dark as the night.

Plainly, the American coal industry is under siege from the EPA. A Romney victory will spell instant share price appreciation. The better Romney does in the polls, the higher shares of ANR, ACI, BTU, CLF, WLT and JRCC will go.

Long shot dice rolls, like NAK, might do well too.

Back in 2000, I got long a variety of military stocks because I thought George Bush would be elected President. I made money. Back in 2008, I went long “green stocks” because I felt Obama would get elected. I made money. Now I am long coal and “fuck the EPA” via NAK and ANR, because I feel Romney has a shot to win.

These are trades, gentlemen, not investments. Once the hype dies down, they will be dogs again. In the meantime, use the news to your advantage and play the sentiment.

NFLX is making me sick. Once again, a former position of mine is gapping higher. Also, have a look at MDRX. I identified it to be cheap at $9. Just buy all gap downs, with blind fury (if there is such a thing). Have your broker issue shares and put them into your vaults. Providing you live inside of a housing tenement, take said certs and put them into a safety deposit box, in order to keep them safe from the burglars who venture into your apartments when you are at “work.”

FFIV is annoying me, only because it’s going down after I purchased it. Howsoever, as sure as I am sitting here, it shall rise again. The month of October is a sublime one for FFIV, as well as GPS, KMP and many others.

My point to you is this, very simply: make your bed, through the explicit purchase of a portfolio of stocks, and sleep in it by holding said stocks. Do not trouble yourselves with corrections or the specter, mind you, of losing money. Such thinking is tomfoolery. This is a one way street gentlemen. Should you find your goat-fucking asses going down the wrong way, you’re going to end up bankrupted and with tires running over your faces, sort of like this:

Most brokers making between 100k-300k per year are flat broke. The ironic part about the field of “professional money management” is the irresponsibility of the stewards themselves. Whenever I pass by a brokerage firm, even in the most remote area, I can easily identify who’s a broker and who’s a regular office stiff. Brokers, for the most part, are professional gamblers/huckster salesmen, preying on the weak to make a buck.

I’ve always despised the sales aspect of the business because it is low brow. Nonetheless, if you aren’t blessed with wealthy friends and family, you need to make those cold, hard, calls–to total strangers who hate you.

Back in the old days, I’d go to work at 4am to call overseas, just to mix it up a bit. We’d call everywhere from London to Israel. Some of my larger clients were from the stupid island of Australia. If done with integrity and skill, sales calls can be very rewarding, until you remember how low brow it truly is.

I know there are a lot of young punks, who are fresh in the business, reading this blog for tips. Go fuck yourselves, rookies. “The Fly” isn’t here to provide you with tips. Work hard and be original and maybe you can make enough money to raise a family with comfort.

Everyone is tossing ideas out for the week ahead, not me. I don’t have a clue where the market is heading next week. I’ll cross that bridge when I get there. Just know, there is nothing in my way from unmitigated and continuous winship but time. Whether I bank my coin now or tomorrow is immaterial, for it is coming, just like the brisk breeze of the winter winds and your eventual demise under my sharp ax.

Well, the faux jobs report, as some are calling it, has led to a stiff sell-off. I’m going to refrain from displaying any semblance of emotion and remind you that all sell-offs are opportunities, mind you, to buy back in. Nothing has changed and counterfeit money is still out there, waiting to bid up stocks.

At the moment, I am down about 1%. I don’t feel great about my positions, since most of them are designed to be trades. I have little conviction in most of them, which is fine on a short term basis. However, longer term, I can’t own a bunch of high-risk, high-beta, plays and expect to live comfortably without fear.

I’ve designed a fairly good system for investing, one that entails low risk, moderate reward. I keep tight leashes on most of my positions and book profits fast, unless the idea is something I feel passionate about, like former positions in MVIS, FTK, WNR, YELP etc. Every once in awhile a light bulb goes off and I know there is money to be made. Understand something, I don’t think money will be made, I know.

I’d be telling you tall tales if I said “I know stocks are going higher from here.” I’ve defaulted to a long only bias only due to recent history. Plainly, I have no fucking idea what the market will do next week. According to The PPT, we are overdue a 1-3% correction. Not a big deal.

In summary, don’t panic, this is normal. Eventually the market trades up, so go eat a few sandwiches, guzzle down some vintage wine, and unwind.

After my KMB sale, I am 15% cash, a meaningful amount in a very bullish tape. I’ve been saying this for awhile now: we’re due for a rest. Our algos were flagging OVERSOLD signals for a number of inverse ETFs yesterday. Here is the data.

DOG (6 mo algo)

DOG (12 mo algo)

And it is signaling the decline in the dollar is about to stop, which bodes poorly for risk.

UDN

If that’s the case, why am I 85% long and why did I buy ANR yesterday? In short, because I could. I do not cede my decisions to a computer. I use both data and intuition to make decisions. There is a reason why quants blow up. It’s because they forget how to think for themselves. I outsource much of the grunt work of combing through numbers to The PPT. But when it comes to the art of investing, it’s all me.

Still, I may lose money on ANR and I might end up regretting being 85% long at the top end of the range. But I am pushing the envelope. How else am I supposed to make triple digit returns, as promised in this year of generosity, if I am not willing to lose a little to make a lot?

Jack Welch, former CEO of GE, accused Obama of manipulating the jobs numbers today. I don’t know. What do you think? Does the white house really have control of economic statistics?

Lastly, today is the one year anniversary of the passing of Steve Jobs. Say what you want about his personality, but he will be missed. As a small business owner and big thinker, even bigger dreamer, I have nothing but respect and admiration for what Steve accomplished during his time here with miscreants.

Obama could not answer any of Romney’s charges because he didn’t have his teleprompter. But he was able to jerk the employment numbers today, effectively pancaking the unemployment rate to 7.8%. It’s so funny how everything is viewed cynically and accepted as “part of the game.” Perhaps I am being a bit too harsh on the Big O. After all, I’ve prospered during his administration and I really, really like his Federal Reserve chief.

Futures are way up and the fucktards who are long 7 stocks and short 8 are going to watch me bank coin again.

ULTA for the $100 roll.

OSG for stiff boat drinks.

Thank me later.

During last night’s debate, much to my surprise, Romney came out aggressive in favour of coal. I am sure the toothless, overall wearing, guitar playing, rednecks threw their beer cans in the air upon hearing it, as a classless sign of southern solidarity with the monstrous mormon. Since Romney won, rather decidedly, coal stocks are screaming higher today, in hopes that a mormon administration will be a favourable development to the black lung crowd.

I sold ANR three weeks ago near $8.80, a rare top-tick of sorts. And now I am buying that fucker back.

I sold out of my largest position, KMB, and dropped half of the proceeds into ANR. It’s now a big position of mine and I am going to make a fucking killing on it.

I do regret selling WNR, HFC and ALJ. As I write this, the Brent-WTI spread is upwards of $20 and 321 crack spreads are north of $36, with gasoline soaring today. The price of gasoline is now retailing for $4.40 per gallon. As you get mugged at the pump, the crude is just sitting at Cushing, OK doing nothing.

Let’s not even discuss the oil being extracted from the Eagleford Shale. There is a desperate demand for pipeline infrastructure in this country, to get the crude and distillates moving. However, the EPA hamstrings them, fucking you directly at the pump.

As a result, refinery related stocks are enjoying a renaissance. HFC, TSO, WNR, CVI, DK, PSX, MPC and VLO are the new bankers. They are the guys stealing from you, with the help from the government of course. Truth be told, running a refinery business is capital intensive and they need to eat too. Nonetheless, do not complain when gasoline is retailing for $6.00+ when the war with Iran starts.

We have the oil and the capacity to refine it. We just don’t have the infrastructure to move it around–all thanks and praise to your local fucktard politicians.

I didn’t think the market would turn so quickly. Nevertheless, I am back to banking stupid coin again, tossing bearshitters down elevator shafts, having horses kick them in the fucking face.

Commodities are decidedly higher. Romney trounced Obama in the debates. Dare I say, NAK is going the fuck higher today, a big middle finger to the devils at the EPA, who are so interested in saving “the environment.”

FUCK THE ENVIRONMENT.

May we all perish from the Black Lung, as rich as can be, addled with rare types of cancer– but exceedingly wealthy from our prospecting fortunes.

Top picks: DDD, OSG, PPC and JIVE