Time to Buy Coal?

Sterne Agee is out with a morning note, declaring the coal sector to be oversold. They cite the EPA risks, limiting the prospect of new coal fired plants, as not relevant at the moment, since capacity at existing plants is at around 60-70%. Those are valid points, at least in the near term.

Balance sheets are horrendous, but most coal companies have adequate funding for the foreseeable future. What this comes down to, frankly, is traditional supply/demand metrics and right now natural gas is too cheap to get excited about coal. While it’s true that coal has regained market share at the utilities, every single month since the April lows, it’s also true that 60% capacity is hardly inspiring from an investors viewpoint.

When investing in semiconductors, you want capacity upwards of 90%, in order to reliably predict margin expansion. At 60%, the risk is margin compression.

Here are some one month returns for the coal industry. Keep in mind many of these stocks ran white hot in the month of October.

OXF -51%
JRCC -37%
WLT -20%
ACI -20%
ANR -19.5%
BTU -12%
CNX -9%

Botton Line: I’d avoid buying into this dip. Typically the month of January is a wretched one for coal, whereas February and March are great times to own it–sporting 75% success rates. Be patient and let the blood flow freely. The carnage is far from over. It gets worse before it gets better.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qg48ZZ2wYfM

I’ve come to this conclusion often, after going through periods of giving a fuck. “The Fly” bitching about the country is my way of caring. But let’s face it, debt is a powerful tool, intended to break nations on purpose. This debt we are saddled with will NEVER be paid down. The special interests have fleeced the treasury and credit markets for trillions. Now they’re coming for your money.

As patriots, many of you accept higher taxes because you want to help your nation–just like you supported corrupt wars against shadows that started this draining. The truth is, and I am very sorry to disappoint you, the plan is to take your coin. This will be the great finale, the closing salvo, the end.

Politicians will blame the people, specifically “the rich,” as they’ve done countless times throughout history. The only way this plot gets disrupted (wait for it), is through armed revolt or secession. I am only saying what you already know to be true. Let’s not be coy.

So as you sit there, pondering the future, worrying about your kids– just know that your money is funding the biggest ponzi scheme the world has ever known. When they are done tapping into the $87 trillion in US assets, the charade will end and you will be permitted to have your freedoms back, only then you’ll be dead.

Fascinating stuff out of bearshitter firm, GLAUCUS, today, with this report. The ‘smoking gun’ in this report is that TEA changed the wording on their website, moving away from indirect claims that their teas are organic. To me, this is pretty fucking huge, a reversal of my former opinion. Nevertheless, the Chief from SBUX, a native from Brooklyn, has a firm $15.50 all cash bid for TEA. Will Schultz back out of this deal because of a little pesticides? Moreover, Glaucus only tested a handful of samples from a singular location, hardly a scientific conclusion.

But the stock is trading $1.25 below its takeover price. What gives?

The market roared today and stocks with big short positions exploded. Shareholders of DECK, JRCC, GMCR and TSL made a fortune. It seems solar is back, likely based upon some hidden agreement by the socialist states of America to fund their losses.

Today was a phenomenal day for bulls. It truly is a sentiment changer and might just pave the way for a very green X-mas.

Top picks: SWHC, UA

Today’s upside reversal is huge. The bears were feeling all powerful and shit, lazily professing on Twitter, “long 8 stocks short 10“, talking about the downside. Lo and behold, the Fed stepped in and fucking drove rail spikes through their social media heads.

You fucking faggots are now tied to railroad tracks with a steamer barreling your way (no brakes!).

I stepped in and loaded up with pistols, increasing my position in SWHC. I am telling you now, the fucking south is arming themselves at an alarming rate. They’re gonna rise up on their northern masters one day and secede! I also bought more VHC. Any questions?

There are a few things that I know to be true now.

1. The South will rise again.
2. VHC is going to kick AAPL in the nuts.

To hedge these bets, I have 30% of my book in cash–long Congressional stupidity. For now, however, things look okay. Let’s just pray to baby Jesus that the perverts in Congress don’t give any statements to the press, from now until the closing bell.

First of all, I just want to remind you that we are going over the fiscal cliff. There is no middle ground between the GOP and Dems. But let’s assume Obama will get his way and raise taxes on “the rich” from 36% to 39%. Do you know how much revenue he will raise?

Answer: $90 billion per annum

Are you aware how much deficit spending Obama is partaking in on an annual basis?

Answer: $1.3 trillion per annum

Am I missing something here? How the fuck is the problem “the rich?”

THESE ASSHOLES NEED TO SPEND LESS, making cuts across the board–otherwise the game is over. Aside from raising tax rates, the democrats want to eliminate write offs for mortgage interest and even tap into pension/IRA’s/401k plans.

Who exactly is going to be hurt by these stupid policies? Are the people building those fancy mansions all billionaires? Is the guy laying tile in that $3 million home down the block a fucking billionaire?

Believe what you want, but these tax hikes will be CATASTROPHIC for the markets and the overall economy. The Bush tax cuts should be permanent, period. We haven’t had a Federal tax cut in over 10 fucking years. We are a heavily taxed nation, in every facet of life. Yet, somehow, someway, the fucktards in DC have invoked class warfare tactics, not to “raise revenue,” but to punish success.

Thus far, the government have been horrendous stewards of American capital. Agree or disagree? If Congress was managing your money in the private sector, you’d fire them. With that in mind, why in the world should we “bail them out” by accepting higher taxes? They are conducting one giant fucking ponzi scheme, feeding into big government to support their power base. Now that they’ve hit a wall, unable to keep the ponzi scheme going without new “revenue”, we’re supposed to just sit here like fucking dogs and take it?

Message to Congress: fuck you.

So I was perusing the traffic stats for iBankCoin and came across some fascinating stats. Traffic via Blackberry devices is down upwards of 75% across the board. Our main driver of growth is through mobile devices, specifically iPhones and iPads, up more than 120% yoy. Within browsers, Chrome and Safari are enjoying double digit gains, while Internet Explorer is down 25%.

Our app traffic is up 500% and my fame and stardom in France is enjoying nothing but growth, where “Le Fly” is practically a household name, along with The Count of Monte Cristo.

Traffic via Twitter is up 300% and Facebook traffic is non-existent.

The good state of Texas is down 18% yoy. It is evident to me, through these stats, that Texas has seceded from the market. Both Houston and Dallas (no champagne parties) have left iBankCoin for dead, likely in favor of some transvestite site. In other good news, the state of Illinois is our best performer–all thanks and praise to the gangster culture present there that identifies with “The Fly” and his violent ways.

In August of 2012, we changed the layout of the site, nuking both our news and blogger network sections, both constituted about 10% of traffic a piece. We also removed ourselves from the vagrancy of Stocktwits, following repeated insults to myself and the readers of our great institution. Stocktwits represented just 155,000 views per annum, out of 13 million overall views–a pittance of minute proportions.

Nevertheless, due to the changes to the site, coupled with a general apathy within the investor community, iBC traffic will endure its first annual decline ever, in the range of -5 to -9% yoy. But it had to be done.

WE NEEDED TO CLEANSE THIS SITE FROM THE EVILS THAT INFECTED IT, IN ORDER TO CREATE A NEW ORDER, ONE THAT WILL LAST A MILLENNIA.

In summary, RIMM to zero, AAPL back to new highs, GOOG is at risk since traffic trends are strongly in mobile’s favor– and of course FB is a piece of shit. If Twitter ever ipos, buy with both hands.

NOTE: With analytics, I am able to view mobile usage on a daily basis, which gives me a unique advantage to identify trends in real time. I’ll keep you posted.

I misjudged the incompetence of our government, thinking they’d parlay the panic to the latter half of the month, in order to give investors a respite for the holiday season. I was wrong.

My original assumption, a bet if you will, is for massive incompetence–on an industrial scale–to take place in Washington DC. This is a high probability trade.

Since I am not in the business of shorting artificially inflated markets, I opt for cash instead. I swapped out of NXPI for UA today, and added to SWHC–based upon RECORD gun sales this black friday.

At the end of the day, I am destined for extreme winship of the belligerent variety. I intend to purchase your margin liquidations, once again, when dressed in tuxedo, top hat and white gloves. I will purchase your shares using the tip of my cane–as I do not intend to ever get my hands dirty.

With gains in excess of 20% for the year and time on my side, I am poised to close out 2012 successfully, restoring The House of Fly back to its former glory.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cqg_ZGcuybs

The market was looking good earlier, absent anything to do with reality. Then SENATOR REID had a word, with regards to “The Fiscal Cliff.”

***REID SAYS `LITTLE PROGRESS’ MADE RECENTLY IN FISCAL CLIFF TALKS***

There you have it, children from the interwebs. Your government is raping you again, depleting the value of your investments because they are all drug addled perverts, corrupted by money, power and God complexes.

UPDATE: I sold out of NXPI, putting cash levels back to 40%.

So the bankrupt Greek economy has produced a bull market in 2012, with the Athens exchange up 25% year to date. On the other side of the ledger, creditor nation, China, is down 10%. We live in interesting times.

The new head of the BOE is a good ol’ chap from Goldman Ballsachs. Such a brazen act of patronage calls for a 5 second golf clap.

The status quo is the desired outcome here. The power elite want the market to go up, and they want countries like Greece to default, without having to actually declare it. Essentially, they want to have their cakes and eat them too. It’s clear to me, as of right now, the market has no intention of trading lower. Perhaps it can trade lower tomorrow, amidst rumors of war and fiscal malfeasance. But for today, we are going north.

I purchased shares of UA–because I like large cap short squeeze ideas. Other stocks that fit the criteria are LEN, LULU and FB. Out of 4,000 stocks in The PPT database, just 4 fit the large cap short squeeze criteria–definitely something to behold.

I added to my SWHC position because the south is going to secede from the union and march an army of militia into DC to arrest President Obama. I cannot think of a reason to sell RGR, SWHC into economic and social upheaval.

Lastly, I’m a big fan of the homebuilders, and anything to do with construction. I haven’t ‘sacked up’ yet to buy into the bull run, aside from the occasional BZH trade. But it is my belief that residential construction is on the rise again. Homies like BZH, HOV, LEN, RYL, PHM and SPF should continue to rise as credit becomes available to qualified buyers. Inventories are low and rates are a steal.

I started a position in UA.