18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
The ultimate show down approaches, with the month of December. Billions of hedge fund dollars will go back to work this holiday season, in a last ditch effort to chase performance and salvage the year. The overall economy is “meh”, but the stock market is fixed–helped by the Fed. That’s the upside.
The downside is a tragic amount of tax hikes looming in 2013. Most people believe there is no way the government will let it happen. Why not? It will add $500 billion to the “revenue side”, alleviating budget constraints, so that the government can spend even MOAR.
Ask yourself these questions:
Did the government fuck up with the TARP vote?
Did the government fuck up with the debt ceiling extension?
Those were simple, straightforward propositions. The fiscal cliff is far more complex. I am expecting a dysfunctional government to once again reemerge as the dominant factor in fucking shareholders.
I’m already at 40% cash, so there isn’t much for me to sell up here. I might even take out a few trades, providing the uptrend continues. But rest assured, your government will fuck this up and markets will panic because of it.
Markets that defy gravity are perfect for squeezing shorts–because they cannot hold onto their shares as the market performs illogical feats of magic. Case in point: VHC ripped the chest hairs off shorts today, for little to no reason. It’s true the stock shouldn’t have been sold off in the first place. Nevertheless, today’s punch in the face makes for good conversation.
You know my position: 40% cash, 60% long, of which half of that is in VHC. I am very cautious here, but will never entertain the idea of going short. Short selling is for fucktards. I’d rather be in cash, watching everyone else die, than get my hands dirty.
At any rate, courtesy of The PPT, here is a group of stocks that have been identified as being in ‘short squeeze mode.’
I sold out of WNR this morning, putting me at 40% cash. AAPL is leading the nasdaq higher and complacency is very high. I don’t expect the market to get crushed, until AFTER the New Year’s. Consider the period between now and then a twilight of sorts.
On a more optimistic note, I like smartphone derivative plays heading into the pagan holidays, specifically NXPI, AVGO and RFMD.
Despite the tepid tone to the market, breadth is under 40% for the day and utilities are the top performers. This is not exactly a healthy backdrop for a continued run.
I am holding large positions in VHC, EXK, NXPI and SWHC. I regret not buying YELP when it was lower. And I am shocked to see DECK all the way back, following a horrendous quarterly report. The market is always filled with surprises, so one never knows exactly what’s in store. All we can do is make educated guesses, try to avoid making stupid errors, and bet big when the odds are optimal.
Last month, almost to the day, the markets topped out–leaving bulls strewn across Wall Street, like some sort of degenerate trash. The fat faces on CNBC didn’t know what the fuck was going on, but I did. Over the past two weeks, markets have stabilized and surged into light volume, tryptamine induced, gluttony.
The bad news (fiscal cliff, really fucked up economy for another 4 years etc) has magically morphed into a catalyst to drive stocks higher–based upon the hopes of a deal. But you know our government, always opting for the dramatic course of action instead of the logical. We have elected monkeys dressed in fancy suits, who throw bananas at one another and ask us to clean up the mess. They intend to “tax the rich” in order to “create jobs”, spearheaded by unions, who will then finance their reelection campaigns. It is the ultimate circle jerk.
So as the markets figure out that the fiscal cliff is not only a risk but a reality, I strongly suggest ‘vamoosing’ out of high risk plays in exchange for a “Hugh Hendry” styled portfolio.
We had a nice respite, courtesy of the Turkey Gods. But now it’s time to sit back and enjoy watching an illiterate America get pushed over “the fiscal cliff.” Dicks will be removed and accounts destroyed. Satan Claus is coming and there is nothing you or your stupid friends can do about it.
Pagan X-mas shopping is underway, so losses will be muted. But rest assured, as soon as 2013 arrives the market is going to be in catastrophe mode, leaving the lot of you– conversing about the markets on homosexual social networking sites– in a state of catatonic stupidity.
You were warned, weren’t you? From your housing tenements, desperate, cold, and without electricity–you sold short the market because Obama is a communist. You told tall tales, read Zerohedge and planned for the economy to thrust lower, amidst violent revolt and european sovereign debt crisis.
Understand something, you are the very dumbest the world has to offer, not because your IQ is low–but due to your inability to learn from past mistakes. You bastards are accustomed to tripping over live claymore mines, aren’t you?
You touch the oven and burn your hands. You recover from the wounds and touch the oven again.
DO NOT TOUCH THE OVEN ANYMORE, fucked face.
Lounged up in a dimly lit room, shrouded by a cloud of marijuana smoke, Benjamin Bernanke, in an unusual animated composure, is yelling at the CNBC, saying “I told you motherfuckers I was gonna get you real good this time. You thought this shit was over, didn’t you? POMO for life you fucking homos (puff, puff, puff–exhale).”
The markets have been bailed out by the splendour of mashed potatoes. As we speak, a gluttonous populous are raiding retail shoppes, tripping over one another, in order to “save” coin by spending money for X-mas items. The day we call “Black Friday” is upon us and “Cyber Monday” lurks in the crevasse.
Just know, today’s low volume melt up is one of the few “dunk shots” of the market. If retail sales come up short, Santa Claus will get kicked off his sled and beaten senseless. It’s also worth noting that every single crisis in the market is used to fuel short covering frenzies–this time circling around the specter of “The Fiscal Cliff.” Bulls will use rumors and rumors of rumors of a soon to be inked deal to frighten short sellers into mercy positions, breaking the shorts over their knees like pretzel rods. Once the reality kicks in, markets will fall. However, until the moment of truth is delivered, it’s casino time–courtesy of a hyper malfunctioning government body.
If you’re new to the site, looking for a hot hand, run over to Ragin Cajun’s blog. He just hit a grand salami long RIMM. The boys from 12631 are having a phenomenal year.
In short, the Santa Claus rally is in full retard mode. Let’s just hope the upright walking pigs have enough credit to fuel this rally until year end.
I like to consider myself to be an expert in decorum. Lucky for you, I am going to share some of my secrets, in order to help you socialize during tomorrow’s Thanksgiving feast.
When hosting, be sure to address each person who enters your home by their proper surname, even if it’s your mother and father.
Example: “Good afternoon Mr. Thomson. I am so happy you could attend, accompanied by the venerable Mrs. Thomson.”
Immediately have someone fetch their outer-garments, then invite them to your parlour for refreshments.
Example: “Mr. and Mrs Thomson, please join me in the parlour. Can I offer you some wine or perhaps something stronger?”
After your guests have loosened up, serve appetizers and ask that they make a small donation to your favorite charity.
Example: “Mr. Thomson, please have a meatball, they’re delectable. They’re made from kobe. Also, let me offer you an opportunity to be charitable. Are you aware that children in Africa do not celebrate Thanksgiving?” (then proceed with sales pitch)
After you’ve achieved your philanthropic goals, ask everyone to sit and prepare for dinner.
Example: “Gentlemen and ladies in attendance, please join me in the dining area, where we will be serving a freshly slaughtered, organic, free range, stuffed bird, cranned berried sauce and other fine delicacies.”
Once seated and served, ask that everyone join hands to say grace. You will perform this function, and do so with the professional acumen that comes natural to you.
Example: “Dear Turkey Gods, thank you for all of this food on this table. I particularly would like to thank you for inventing cranned berried sauce and stuffing. I will be sure to douse your body with gravy and devour you whole. A-fucking-men.” (apologize to the children immediately)
While at the table, small talk is important. Try to address your guests with respect, but let them know who’s boss. It’s also important to frame your sentences in a way that demands a response, in order to keep the party vibrant.
Example: “Mrs. Thomson, would you be kind enough to pass me the gravy, okay, pal? Mr. Thomson, do you see those biscuits over there? Would you be a champ and get them for me? I greatly appreciate your assistance, thanks skip.”
After dinner, dismiss the women from the table, so that they might clean up. Ask for refreshments too.
Example: “Okay ladies, please allow the men to mingle in bitter solitude for a few moments. Dear (referring to wife), go get us some Port and a box of cigars. Mrs. Thomson, make yourself at home. There are plenty of aprons under the sink, if you need one.”
After you’ve had a nice cigar and some dessert wine, re-invite the ladies to join the men in the drawing room to discuss politics and religion.
Example: “Ladies, if you’re done cleaning up, please join us in the drawing room for casual discussion. Mrs. Thomson, how do you feel about Islam?”
Now it’s time to wind down operations. But it’s important to do so without looking rude. You do not want your guests to feel as if you’re kicking them out.
Make believe your pocket-watch isn’t working, tapping on it, complaining “this darn thing stopped working again. Can anyone be so kind as to tell me what time is it?” After hearing the time, address a guest in a specific manner to make her feel as if she’s intruding, but do so without her knowing it is intentional.
Example: “Mrs. Thomson, do you have many things to do tomorrow morning? My wife has been complaining to me all week about getting an early start on this Black Friday thing. Do you intend to wake up with the roosters and join the frenzy?”
When saying goodbye to your guests, be sure to offer parting compliments, prior to waving your hand as they drive away.
Example: “Thank you so much for dining with us tonight Mr. Thomson. Your wife. Ms. (emphasis on Ms.) Thomson looked especially elegant this evening with her costume. Is this Hermes, Ms. Thomson? (As they drive away, while waving and smiling profusely, yell out “Ciao.”
I haven’t bought any TEA, even though I think the ‘Glaucus Report’ is stupid as shit–because risking $4 for $1 (SBUX acquired TEA for $15.5) is a poor allocation of capital. However, should the stock continue lower, led by fucktards in green leotards, I am a buyer. The whole premise of this “Glaucus Report” focuses around pesticides in tea. Will you shut the fuck up already? You lost because the company caught a bid. Whoever was short TEA, did so because they thought SBUX would compete with them via Tazo. Well, guess what fucked face, SBUX bought them and Howard Schultz is thrilled, saying he “will do for tea what he did for coffee.” He talked about the synergies with Tazo and TEA and how it was a perfect deal for SBUX.
Those are emotional statements and a little pesticide DOESN’T CHANGE THE FUCKING STORY. If a vendor is putting excessive quantities of pesticide, they’ll find new ones. For the love of bankrupted short sellers, THE GLAUCUS REPORT used just 13 samples, conducted at some two-bit lab (which was likely contaminated) and based Jerky Boys-like prank calls for the foundation to put out a story, charging that SBUX would back out of the deal. It’s laughable.
You don’t bet against stocks going into Turkey week. Tis the time to be festive, gain weight, and behave like jackasses. The junior traders will be whipped stupid should they oversee trading errors. Therefore, volatility will be contained and markets will drift higher into Black Friday.
