18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Due to recent events in and around the Kremlin, “The Fly” had made an immediate exit from The Russian Federation. In no way does this have to do with President Petrov and his disregard for our President, Frank Underwood. As such, I’ve parted with my positions in QIWI and YNDX. Although I believe both are cheap stocks, the political climate isn’t worth the risk holding these stocks through fascist news flow.
In addition to YNDX and QIWI, I sold out of WFT.
With the proceeds, I bought FL, MD and WYN.
God speed, I am back in America, buying silly American sneaker companies, who sell overpriced Air Jordan’s to stupid teenagers.
I was going to throw fire balls at the bears this morning for betting against stocks for the past 6 years, but then I thought “what’s the point?” We all have roles to play, don’t we? One thing that is consistent in this market, as well as humanity, is behavior. Some people will always see things for what they are, others for what they want it to be, and a small minority want to see nothing at all. In between that spread of optimism and pessimism is a profit margin to be had by shrewd speculators.
Heading into March, I make no assumptions. We just had the best February in years, one for the ages, and to believe this rally could continue, unabated, would be naive. Nevertheless, there is little reason to prattle about the internets about a pending correction either. Stocks at new highs tend to make fresh, new highs. I’ve always found it to be amusing that people hate buying new highs. How in the world do you think AAPL, ORCL, MSFT and CMG got to where they are today? Do you believe buying new highs in those stocks over the past twenty years resulted in poor returns?
Granted, those are exceptional companies and it’s hard to find those early. But we can avoid the disasters, no? We both know the stocks that I lost money in last year, yes?
Let’s review my biggest blunders.
FEYE: bought it when it traded 20x sales, unprofitable.
SPLK: bought it near 20x sales, unprofitable.
WDAY: bought it near 25x sales, unprofitable.
YELP: bought it near 17x sales, barely profitable
GPRO: I didn’t sell it when up 15%, ended up losing 15%. The company isn’t profitable.
Now since 2009, it was fairly easy to make money in a number of sectors, simply due to a high tide lifting all boats. That changed in 2014 and I believe the characteristics of 2014 will continue throughout 2015. Those traits are: avoid high price/sales dice rolls, companies that are unprofitable, and small capped nonsense is simply not worth the hassle.
That doesn’t mean you can’t make coin in small cap trades, directional, over small periods of time. But the time for gambling on unprofitable, small caps, into earnings is over. That’s the main philosophical difference that I’m adhering to throughout 2015.
The overwhelming majority of my holdings are free cash flow machines. I do, however, partake in rampant speculation on a continuous basis. However, that is done with a pre-determined percentage of assets, all done under the framework of certain risk profiles.
Early going the market looks good, sans commodities. More later.
Considered to be something of a novelty by many, seasonality trends are revered here at iBankCoin like God himself hiking down the Rocky Mountains in search of good coconut water.
Bear in mind, had you adhered to the seasonal trends of January and March, you’d be up 13% for the year like me, playing gambling games inside of the oil and gas sector.
Without further delay, I present to you, the lower tier of the barrel, aka the ‘reader class’, seasonal trends for the month of March.
Flawless in March (minimum 5 years, 95%+ win rate)
Most up years (min 20 years)
Highest percentage returns (min +11%)
Industries with most winners (5%+ returns, 75%+ win-rates)
Apparel clothing
Banks
Specialty Retail
Restaurants
Rental Leasing and Services
Oil and Gas
Home Furnishing
Business Services
Worst Industries
Alternative Energy
Chinese Burritos
Biotech
Software
Semis
Resorts and Casinos
Drug Manufacturers
Telecom
Communication and Equipment
Worst Performing ETF
FAZ (-20%)
Best Performing ETF
FAS (+12%)
In summary, if basing investment decisions based solely on seasonal trends, you want to take profits on biotech, semis, chinese burritos and software and get long oil, retail and restaurants. Think consumer and fade the excess.
For members of The PPT, the screen that I used for this post is here.
Son of famed French artist, Pierre-Auguste Renoir, Jean Renoir is considered one of the best film directors of all-time. Although he was born in an era when idiots roamed the earth, unable to communicate properly though the use of mobile satellite devices, Jean managed to make some pretty great films.
But The Rules of the Game steals the show. This film was banned in France, during the German occupation, and was considered to be ‘immoral’ by Hitler’s fucked up standards. Rules of the Game is about a demented French ruling class, human depravity, honor or lack thereof, and filmed in a manner that was considered to be revolutionary back then, considering that it was done in an ‘era of idiots’ who didn’t even have computers, plastic water bottles or cable tv.
One side note, at the time, lead actor Marcel Dalio was an up and coming star in France. However, due to the Nazi invasion and subsequent murder of French jews under Hitler directives, Marcel was forced to escape France for America, where his career withered and died. He did, however, manage to weasel his way into Bogart’s epic film Casablanca, paid $667 for his troubles.
I told you to get inside of the oil barrel with me. Oil posted a strong month for February and steps into March a new man, a man whose mother was just killed by a wild octopus and now traveling the seven seas armed with a fucking harpoon.
HERETO: “The Fly’s” been doing this shit for so long his veins are solidified, flowing with the coldest of bloods. None of this shit bothers me, since I know, without a shadow of a doubt, my God given skills with eventually grace me with unchecked profit and unbounded winship.
Very soon I expect to roll down Wall Street, in a 1980’s stretched limousine, throwing jumping jacks out from the back seat at all of the pikers outside.
I AM FUCKING BUILT FOR THIS SHIT, WAR PROVEN, SUPER-CHARGED AND DIABOLICALLY DESIGNED TO FUCK YOU UP.
Have a great weekend and remember to follow us on Instagram: @IBankCoinHeadlines.
I knew it was too good to be true. I was just over here, chatting up my Ukranian painter, discussing the ‘evil fucking Russian bastards’, having a grande old time with the markets pressing new highs. A few hours pass by and we’re heading to hell again. ‘Tis is the life of a person who speculates for a living.
A smooth 40 point downtick has me in fits. Quick, someone call the Fed and ask them to initiate QE to help me with my capital gains.
Truth is, and you know it, we’re over due a smacking about the face and gums. We’ve had it too good for too long. On the other hand, many of you smug catamites are buying FAZ now, hoping for the worst. We might just melt up into the bell, just for shits and giggles.
Nevertheless, I’ve prepared myself for a trip to hell, fully expecting to bleed out a little for the sake of nourishing the tree of speculation.
I added to YELP, even though I really want to buy GRUB, aka the uber of food delivery.
Listen to me: oil will destroy you if you allow it. Stop trading in and out of 3x ETFs, churning and burning your bullshit accounts into oblivion. Be a gentleman, own shares of SLCA and WFT, for the win of course.
There are many ways to skin this season cat. Firstly, let’s state it plainly, I am long oil through March. For some of you rocket scientists out there, that means I am going to be long crude stocks no matter what, even if Saudi Arabia decided to give it away for free.
While it’s true, in recent weeks I’ve reduced and eliminated several oil positions. Just yesterday I sold out of PACD. The simple fact of the matter is, I am playing a game of shadows, ebbing and flowing between overweight and equal weight the sector. Yesterday I sold an outlier position to raise funds to buy more QIWI. I did this because I am big man and like to eat salmon steaks on beach with champagne.
My core oil positions are WFT and SLCA. When oil turns up again, both of those stocks are going to blow brains out to the upside.
So what we are years late and you’re really not that interested. However, unlike other corporate accounts that are totally fucking retarded, iBankCoin will use its newly minted instagram account to archive my wonderful and artistic headlines. God willing you will be able to peruse the many phallic laden statues that I post for decades to come.
I consume a lot of information, probably way too much. I believe we are in the ‘golden era’ of teevee programming, which is driving ad dollars and subscription models to new highs. See AMCX for evidence (Better Call Saul is as good as Breaking Bad).
Today the very best show, House of Cards, released season 3 on NFLX. The best thing about NFLX is they release all of the episodes at once, permitting binge watchers to go ‘hog-wild’ and consume.
Before the market opens and before things get colorful around here, I wanted to pay tribute to Mr. Underwood.
All big man in Moscow owns condo in Monaco. We pay all cash money for villa on beach and visit when weather in Russian Federation is fucked. Our women wears mink coats and big diamonds when we visit symphony.
If you want to live here and have big diamonds, you should buy QIWI and YNDX, yes?
Vladimir Putin makes Ukraine pay cash money for gas or else they freeze like sausage in snow.
Russian banks are very safe and there is big opportunity in ruble. Don’t listen to American lies and propaganda.
The cold war is only cold because you don’t have mink hat, no? Maybe you should make some more money and then you warm up on coast of Monaco.
