When I switched sides to the transgendered bulls, the comments section was bedlam — people decrying that I was a ‘traitor to my people’ and how I had marked ‘the top’ and had ‘gotten in too late.’ I always am amused and find it curious to see how people respond to my market calls, akin to some random fat slob in the stands offering advice to Babe Ruth on how to hit a fastball.
Good Sirs, I have long established a rich history in trading success here. I have proven all of my critics wrong to the point they no longer exist outside of the shadows and can only call me things in the privacy of their homes.
I STAND BEFORE YOU A CHAMPION AMONGST CHAMPIONS, +360bps for the session — fully robed and honored by the Gods amidst heavily perfumed rooms and decadent surroundings. With a small portion of my winnings, I might venture out to buy a luxury watch, or not. It’s entirely up to me, as I am the master of my own destiny and no one can stop me.
Today’s rally was buoyed most by the collapse in rates, all but factoring in a 100bps cut in 2024. If you look closely into what stocks moved most, they were the companies most distressed, free cash flow burners in the biotech and tech sectors. These were the companies left for dead last week, renewed this week by dreams of lower rates and access to capital. At the end of the day, this is what is driving the market — the relationship between capital and the cost to borrow it.
The long narrative is entirely driven by this point and should rates jimmy back higher next week, this entire move will be revoked.
Due to my aversion to being tricked into fanciful ideas, I took a bearish position on bonds by shorting them, opened up hedges against the fucking scientists in the biotech field and took a variety of defensive long positions with 34% reserved in cash. It’s worth mentioning I also have a volatility long, as the VIX straddles a 15 handle in a global environment that can produce world war.
The average return for the $IWM is +2.7% for November. We are already +6%, so put that into perspective when you mindlessly and stupidly call for more upside in this environ.
Playing devil’s advocate, should rates not climb and earnings continue to come in as expected, there’s no reason why we can’t trade up another 3-5% from now to December. It’s worth mentioning that I believe we are mirroring the price action of late 2018. If at all curious, which I am sure you’re not, go ahead and check out what the fucking NASDAQ did during December of 2018.
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