I made a sundry of trades in and out of 3x ETFs today, all profitable, all done with the utmost precision. Here was my haul.
SOXL +11.7% (overnight)
SOXS +14.1% (swing)
FAS +11.6% (swung again)
SOXS +3.1% (and again)
While tempted to trade some more, I chose to remain SHORT VIX and also long tankers and lots of cash. I hope you made it thru the fires this week. I can tell you now, and this goes without saying, I am in the zone like never before. Full matrix — space alien magician (SAM) style and good bye.
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Trump has coronavirus. No joke.
This is a bad news/bad news scenario.
Francis Suarez, the Mayor of Miami has gotten COVID-19 from Fabio Wajngarten, the same Brazilian offical that Trump is associated with.
Best case (depending on your perspective) is that Trump doesn’t have it, but is ignoring the advice his administration is giving to other about self-quarantine. I’m guessing that he has already been tested (he’s paranoid) and is negative.
Worst case, is that he does have it, but has no symptoms yet.
Also:
Mr. Wajngarten had not tested positive before he met the mayor.
Mayor Suarez has no symptoms presently. It will be noteworthy to see if anybody else in Miami is infected by either of these two, as the chain will be public.
Also of note, as an example of how states (this one Republican-controlled) are still downplaying COVID-19, Florida is claiming that Mr. Suarez was infected outside the state:
Florida Residents Diagnosed in Florida as of 6:32 p.m. ET 3/13/2020:
#42, Miami-Dade, Age 42, Male, Travel Related: ***Yes***
Travel related is specifically defined as: “A known history of exposure to COVID-19 outside of the state.” Makes you wonder about the other cases that Florida claim are “Travel related”. Pretending it didn’t happen in your state just makes tracking the problem more difficult.
Just found this:
“Suarez was in the same room with the president (of Brazil) and the infected person, though he said he does not believe he had personal contact with either.”
Nice trades on th the 3xs. Still think VIX trades are more like lotto tickets at this time.
Not normally a conspiracy theorist, but this whole 3 pm press conference and huge ramp at the close looks very fishy to me. Wouldn’t put is past Trump to have Mnuchin call his banker buddies to make Trump look good. Especially after the way the market reacted to Trump last time.
3rd Friday in a row it has happened, but honestly this was one of the best Trump press conferences I’ve seen (before the questions). Not a fan of this administration, but we needed this into the weekend.
Nothing fishy about the PPT. As ever-present as ever. It doesn’t always work; but it did today. They have an unlimited budget. Need a few trillion needed; no problem. They don’t have to ever explain what they did or why. A good job if you can get it.
Fedfucks & company,
I traded around some of your bullshit -last night- and -today-
I know you want an interim rally before the next leg down
I know you want the next leg down
I’ll be ready
A normal market would have resistance reaching falling MA’s
We shall see but nonetheless that’s
Where we meet again
See you at the 200 dma
Did you miss the part where he kicked Russia and Saudi’s in the ass so hard their teeth fell out?
Normally OPEC has to choose between higher oil prices or higher oil quantities. Thanks to Trump, they get both.
I missed your YTD updates… What you are at, -15% after this rally?
The fly deleted my post. Ask him, he’ll be glad to filter through his gigantic garbage can of posts.
Absolute sector rotation ahead of the press conference. Hat tip to some fellow Pelicans for actionable callouts during the conference. Turned an OK day into a good day, and I didn’t even have to use my AK.
All you people in bonds, cash and money market, you are dwindling in my rear view mirror, tiny insignificant spots in the distance.
And no one has learned not to mess with Trump. Kick him in the shin, he’ll put a Tomahawk right up the ass.
Bahahaha! That’s too good.
I have a 101 fever and rising, feel like dogshit, but that brought me up thanks! Think I’m about to test out that just a flu theory, men. Funny thing is that I’ll probably never know as I won’t be able to get tested. But hey, I made 20K today!
It’s flu season after all.
I love these 1000+ point swings. I will be very pleased to trade 4 more years of Trump for that reason alone.
Great week @Fly you are in the zone indeed. Tankers4Life
Analyzing the Trump call, here’s your homework as an investor:
– National Emergency. What does this mean? Can Trump do what he want? Can the Treasury now buy stocks?
– Testing will accelerate. We’ve heard that before, and i actaully beleived it last Friday. Now I’ll wait and see. Currently, it still looks like their are still bottlenecks, so you still ahve to be pretty sick just to qualify for a test. In terms of gettign help to those that most need it without overwhelming the hospitals (triage), this is a good first step. However, think about this: if you aren’t measuring people that are not very sick, but still can pass it to others (50-80% of all infections), how much will this slow the spread of COVID-19 in the US? South Korea seems to be the only country that has a major infection that is definitely under control (can you trust CHina’s numbers?). Who are they testing?
– Looks like tanker play will tank, as Trump wants to fill the Startegic Petroleum Reserves. How much will this affect the oil market? Well, to figure that out you just need to know how much more oil the SPR will hold adn compare that to the increased oil supply from Saudi Arabia. However, you also have to factor in something else: will Saudi Arabia change their oil price, whcih differs for differnt customers? Will the US be willing to pay more for oil from US sahle producers if they can get it cheaper from SAudi Arabia (and which is bett for the US as a country)?
– Also, House has made a deal with Trump. What’s in the bill and how will that affect variosu industries?
You won’t know what’s really in the final bill until the Senate does a bunch of shit to it and tosses it back to the House for another vote.
HR 6201: ‘Families First Coronavirus Response Act’’
It’s now passed the house with strong Republcian supprt and Trump’s Twitter blessing. It will fly through the Senate, or Mithc will feel the wrath from all sides.
From Nancy’s creepy, smilign face at her press confernece, you can tell that the negotiation went like this:
“You can ask waht you want, but i don’t give a shit. Just let me know if you want to take some of the credit for helping American workers deal with this pandemic or if you want to be painted as only caring about the stock market. I’m not addign ANY of your crap to this bill.”
From what I gathered, the bill is basically untouched (from the March 11 version), adding nothing Trump wanted, but some stronger OSHA protections/enfrocement for workers dealign with infected indivuals was removed. Fuck the doctors, paramedics, etc., apparently.
Stocks Soar 11 Percent on Aid to Banks
Oct. 13, 2008
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/14/business/14markets.html
Bear market bounces are the most fun.
Numbersgame deserves a blog on this site. Make it happen Fly…
Why should fly give a special placeholder to someone that spews the same crap day after day?
Give us something original, I don’t care if it’s shit.
That’s funny coming from you.
Zing.
From last weekend’s comments, I thought numbers was successfully nudged to start a blog and only post the ramblings of yahoo finance stuff there…far far away from this blog, though?
I thought the same, but I’d like to see him have his own place here as I enjoy his analysis and respect that he’s called it right on a macro level.
I don’t follow closely enough to judge his content, but he posts daily, unlike others w blogs.
Hartman returns! Methinks he revenge traded the signature (as in signed) Friday Trump rally and then got the bottle out last night to take the edge off. Trump this morning tweeting about the biggest day in stock market history holy fuck that guy is playing with fire. We were promise 4 million test by this week. Who wants to bet that the WMT and TGT drive through testing bullshit doesn’t work out as promised?
MAJOR layoffs starting in earnest here in Seattle. Mostly restaurants it looks like so far as I digest the latest. Good think I know how to cook – Fly understands the importance of being one’s home chef. It only took a week for these once fine Seattle eateries to go down the shitter. And the shit damn breaks and the shit waterfall begins.
I know this faggot that works for BA and just bought a status TSLA. What a dick! This is the same guy who didn’t believe me when I said in Feb that he should cancel his trip to Vegas for March Madness. I doubt he feels so rich now, but still BA is too big to fail, right?
After trading through the worst day in crypto history I’m at a crossroads. Either crypto has bottomed or it is literally worthless…. time will fucking tell
STOCKS POST BIGGEST RALLY SINCE ’08!
S&P 500 Had Choppiest Week Since Hoover Was President…
Drudge won’t quit sneak-dissing his Fuhrer these days. Sad!
https://twitter.com/kasimf/status/1238835509218156544?s=21
ot
clinton/romney
one party system: demopublicans
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/romney-positioning-for-vp-on-democratic-ticket/
If the choice is between Trump or “Status Quo Joe” Biden/ Hedge Fund Bllionaire Romney, I’m fine wh leetng the Trumpster Fire continue oburn down the old growth forest to make room for fresh new ideas to spring up in the future.
Baby boomers (as a group, not evey one) really HATE socialism, unless it is in their favor.
Millenails, Gen Z and children (and even GenX to a large extetent) are pretty much immune to COVID-19, but 1 out of 7 Boomers that get infected will die. So all of the billions in debt to fight this (socailized cost) will only help certain people. That’s fine by me, as I don’t want peoepl to die unnecessarily, even if they are leeches.
Phase 2 legisaltive proposals are what I will have trouble supporting – and under 30s should be up in arms about them
1) Payroll tax cut: this will reduce the funding of Social Security, which is already udnerfunded. It will NOT reduce SS benfits. WHo does this benefit?
a) Reduction of employee payroll texes: everyone that works. Helps workign calss more than the investing class.
b) Reduction of employer payroll tax: my have soem benefit to workers as it may reduce unemployemnt, but this overwhelmingly facvors the investor class (Boomers)
Who does this hiurt
c) Younger generatiosn will either ahve to make up for the SS fund shortfasll, or they will ahve their future benefits cut> Most defeintely hurts GenZ and Millenails (GenX is probably neutral)
2) Aid to hurt industries: cruise liens, airlines, enterntainment (theme parks, sport teams, theaters), retautants. If an industry gets so bad that it will not receover on its own (capitalism at work), then perhaps some aid (socialism) may benefit US society as a whole. However, the benefits will by far go to the investor class (boomers). No bill shoud lbe passed until we have an idea of the how bad the virus will get. Expect that this bill be paid for with debt (GenZ + Millenails).
To sum up.
Market not likely at bottom.
Our coronavirus efforts are a joke.
Recession likely if it isn’t already here.
Some word on shit-throwing contest: you can’t win. Best case by defintion is that at the end of the day, you have less shit on you than your opponent. ALso, if someone said to you, “Do you want to get into a shit-throwing contest?”, of course you walk away. The problem arrises when they throw sh1t first, and anger/pride (emotion) drive a response. You could try and dodge the first sling, and throw soem back. That may work or it may not, but in the big picture it doesn’t make a difference.
Here’s the bigger thing to remember, to help you avoid responding. By throwing shit, the shit-thrower is ***essentially demanding your time and attention***.
By responding:
***you are making a judgement that the shit thrower is worthy of your time.***
Sometimes I just want to argue. Generally I don’t take it seriously. Peeps gonna think whatever they want.