Funny how I was just praising them and now I hate them again.
ALRIGHT ALRIGHT ALRIGHT.
They didn’t have to step in with a 50bps cut. They probably succumbed to Trump pressure, once again, and fucked themselves and the market. This looks like weakness.
“The coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity,” the Fed said in a statement. “In light of these risks and in support of achieving its maximum employment and price stability goals, the Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower the target range for the federal funds rate.”
I know, it’s just the flu bro. More people died in that tornado last night than the virus. I know. But you know what? Fuck yourself. The coronavirus is a legit risk and just because people aren’t dying in the billions doesn’t mean we should ignore it. The death rate in Iran for it is 3.3%. I know, illuminati. Fuck yourself. The point I am making is it matters because humans have declared it to matter. Ok? The affects of this virus has shaken confidence to its core and that is translating into SHARPLY LOWER growth projections. As such, and this goes without saying, I am out.
We might rally, but I don’t think we will. I sold out of all the positions I had put on yesterday, in many cases small profits and losses. I have two positions left and a 90% cash horde. My goal is to execute the perfect trade. With that in mind, back to work.
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Will be interesting to see how much Bernie vs Biden matters tonight.
Look. at $MO. I guess ppl aren’t worried about what cigarettes do to their health.
And $KO. People always going to be in love with their sugary drinks.
Glad to see you continue to lead your flock through thick and thin, Fly.
Also, I do disagree with the FED’s decision in terms of their *motivation*: trying to support the stock market instead of lettign capitalism and price discovery work. The losers will be the last ones out: retail investors and pension funds managed by those who get paid regardless of performance.
However from a *strategic* point of view, the FED’s move was correct because the market already expected it. More importantnly , their timing was good.
Take a look at AAPL. It rallied nearly **10%** yesterday, so was obviously extended. In addition, it was sitting right below strong resitance at $300. The FED boost was *perfectly timed* to blow through that level without looking back and take the market with it, as it has done for over a year.
The problem – observed retrospectively – was that the move didn’t play out as expecetd. After the cut, the market shoudl have jumped at least 1% and stayed there, either oscilalting above that level or trending up slowly. I saw the weakness immediately:
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/03/03/fed-playing-corona-scare-perfectly/#comment-566675
When I observed this utter failure, I went ultra-aggressive with AAPL March 6 puts (instead of my usual spreads) in additon to various longer-term plays, Almost a double so far on them.
Best news for the bears: no more fear of intervention to stop the carnage. First of all, if they try again they will look even more desperate and scared. Secondly, the market saw waht happenned this time and now sell-the-f***ing-upswing (STFU) has taken over from BTFD as the prevelant attitude.
Look at APPL’s price perfromance today
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart_analysis:chart_patterns:descending_triangle_continuation
Craven Fed action, Mr. Fly. They deserve the Catherine wheel.
Too funny. The virus may very well kill just enough of his voters to lose him the election.
Closed out some positions. I have the bullish soul of an optimist, but it’s looking pretty bleak out there.
Called fora rally on Friday, held the call despite hte begative premarket on Sunday. Dow rallys 1500 points. That was yesterday.
Called a market top. Dow drops 1000pt intraday.
(drops mic)
(picks mic up)
I’m just a messeger, and I just want $$$ for me: I couldn’t care about anoyone else’s losses. However, next time anyone says I don’t know what I’m talking about, just remember it’s a bear market now, so STFU
CHF still going strong and that makes me think it is a bear market for now.
You’re right of course (JPY also jumped). However, you may as well be writing in German.
Signs outside stock market action will be ignored
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/01/31/happy-friday-coronavirus-getting-worse/#comment-565735
Should’ve sold on that fed cut spike this morning. Ffffff…..
I have to thank Fly for telling me about FNGD the other day.
In at $6.57 and holding
Why wouldn’t sell for a quick 15%? You’d make a cool 150 on your 1,000$ trade
Yeah, I probably should have sold. That $150 would have bought me one heckuva weekend with your mom.
She’s easy but she ain’t cheap fatso.
Really? What’s her rate?
151$ and a bag of Doritos. I know you have the Doritos but your a dollar short. So sorry
That’s fine. I’ll just pay her in $1s and she’ll never know the difference.
I hope you know that I’m just joking: i know she needs the money so i wouldn’t rip her off like that.
Fed cuts did no dictate market direction in 2008 beyond 1-2 days of volatility
This drop will be capitulation – the whole “out of bullets it’s not working” fear is the best kind.
That theory is good, but has one flaw. In 2008-09, you couldn’t realy tell if things when were getting better or worse. Every action the govenrement took (Bear Staerns bailout, FED rate cuts, SEC banning finacial shorst, Freddie bailout, Congress passing TARP) was met by lower lows for over 1 year.
In this case, the reason the market is fallign is 2-fold:
1) Priced to perfection which does not trigger a bear market, but does contribute to it depth
2) Investor panic – Covid-19
3) Secondary consumer spending effects from virus
My belief – reinforced by the CDC – is that things will keep get much worse before they get better. Therefore, investors/consumers will continue to panic and the market isn’t done falling in the midterm.
Also consider this: QQQ is down ~1% YTD. So exactly what kind of economic effects are presently priced in so far?
11 comments on one post. Is the sky falling or what?
I did appreciate you calling attention to gold on Friday. Made a few bucks on a 2 day hold of GDX.
That’s not the sky, it’s your IRA.
Plummeted way down to those January 1st levels. Just in time for this years 6k infusion too. I’m loving it right now. You would too if you had more conviction late last week.
Sorry to disappoint you (again), but I was market neutral by Thursday and went long late Friday on the bullish breakout I was looking for.
I called it here: https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/02/28/markets-full-blown-crash-mode-bond-market-signals-doom/#comment-566557
Honestly speaking, i beleive that your hands-off approach is pretty common among investors and wokrs well in low-volatiltiy environemnt. You’ve been well groomed on BTFD, but now it’s time to STFU for your own good.
Even you beleive that valuatiosn don’t mean anything for price appreciation, now the trend has turned as well.
The only people who should complain about a market dip are boomers or early retirees. I am neither (yet) thankfully and welcome the carnage as much as the next sicko
On a separate note:
“Who are you going to vote for?”
“The Septuganarian”
“Which one?”
“The white one”
“Which one?”
“The man”
“Which one?”
“The Democratic candidate”
“Which one?”
“The moderate one”
“Which one?”
“The rich one”
“Oh”
Regardless of the outcome, it looks like OWGs win again.
Unless COVID-19 takes them out.