Okay, Maybe Panic A Little

The action isn’t good. Oil has downticked a little — but still not even down 1%. I sold my GLBS day trade for a 5% loss, sold COUP for a 9% loss and am now staring into an abyss of positions bleeding out. Do I simply wait for them to all be down 10% and stop out or sell them now?

My hedges are TLT, TMF and NUGT — but gold is acting poorly today. I have no shorts and what if, what if, what if the market goes down.

What if?

I’m still of the belief, perhaps foolishly, that is junk bonds aren’t moving, neither should my long bias. I’ve been tossed into the blender on this line of thinking before, so I’m not recalcitrant in the idea that everything has to line up perfectly before I execute a trade. I’m not fucking autistic.

For now, bleeding out with panache, Quant down 1.6% for the session.

You might think it’ll be too late by then, but trust me it won’t be. Oil is your guide, the evergreen indicator that has dominion over equity pricing. Why do I say this?

Markets are dominated by credit. Yields are coming down — which is good for credit — but bad for the FUCKERS at the banks. The companies with the worst credit are oils. Oils are dictated by oil prices. Oil prices are dictated by global demand, which is ruled by global growth or lack thereof. The importance of oil on the markets cannot be stressed enough — it is the lynchpin that holds it all together.

Early going, markets are vacillating, but oil, and HYG, and Apple are higher. In my opinion, you have nothing to fear. I have this GLBS trade going sour on me and I deserve it for attempting to catch lightening in such a stupid bottle.

What can I say? I love to speculate.

I also bought new Chinese IPO TIGR, stopped out of ACIA for -9%, and I’m pretty much flat, all things considered, on the balance today.

It all started yesterday with CTRM and it continues today, led by CTRM — higher by more than 50% early going. Seeing the sector up terrifically, I decided to buy one of the main movers — GLBS. I’m already up nicely on it, after an immediate spike. I’d be remiss if I didn’t warn you that these stocks are complete bullshit. Fun, but bullshit.

I don’t have any price target, but I’ll likely sell today.

The 10yr is now at 2.377%, down another 3bps. Any idea how fucked this all is?

Any interest? No.

Centene bought Wellcare creating a monster healthcare company Obama would be proud of. I’m not sure if Trump got rid of it or not. Everything he says is sort of a lie — such as “we’re building the wall now” — so I’m just not sure. Any of you fucks have Obamacare?

I knew Obamacare was rotten the day it was announced and healthcare stocks went up. Someone has to lose on these deals. Apparently, it was us.

Futures are soft, gold is stable, and yields are plunging lower again. If stocks were incredibly weak, I’d venture to say markets are pricing in a soft economy — but stocks have been okay. In other words, I don’t know what the fuck is going on.

See how nice I am? I didn’t even equate your existence with an insect. You’re just nerds now.

We’re heading into a range, that if failed, would/could result in the ever ominous and deleterious head n shoulders top. Do I believe it will happen?

Fuck off.

When I say “shit” I mean bond yields going down while the market goes up, naturally.

This is not unheard of — but it certainly is unusual. I suspect, judging by previous runs, the bond market is not trying to warn of us something. Instead, by divine right, the Nasdaq shall thrust forward, mangling all in its path. Eventually the bond nerds will see they are no match for the Nasdaq and acquiesce, sending yields the fuck higher.

I am long both TLT and TMF and I like them…for now. But the better plays are in tech, oil, and gold.

I had a good day. I am starting to feel a little bit better. I have been amused by the shares of HUNT late in the day. What a time to be alive.

Good day.

Took the gain, +11%. “The Fly” wins again; Diddy loses.

Long the Dick-Car — hoping to quintuple my money in it.

I’ve been in my deathbed all morning and afternoon and just woke up so that I could eat a sammich. I see stocks are flagging and my NUGT is now pressing the highs of the day. It truly is in beast mode and nothing can stop it — not even lower gold.

It must be horrible being you — disfigured monster in the comments sector or lurking, creepily, from afar — hoping to see Le Fly stumble, splatter, and fall — but it never happens. Must be horrible.

I have two predictions.

1. Stocks hit new record highs by Easter.
2. Avenatti goes to prison by Xmas.

I don’t have a best ideas list — leave me the hell alone.

While you were enjoying the comforts of modern entertainment last night, I was entreated to a malady so severe — I hallucinated all through the night. I toiled through night terrors, sudden bursts of panic and I was shivering from my internal temperature drop. Medicated on very high doses of antibiotics and cold/flu elixirs, Le Fly didn’t think he’d make it through the night. Lo and behold, I stand before you, once again, victorious, even during the most trivial of circumstances.

Although I am not completely better and I do have a monstrous headache that has split my skull to pieces, I should be able to function today.

Market futures are sharply higher and my suggestion, or rather, my implication, that WTI crude wasn’t down yesterday was reason enough to hold came true. I suspect I’ll get boxed around in TLT/TMF a little, and NUGT might be barreling down from a head and shoulders top, something we’ll have to monitor closely, but on the all — I will make an extraordinary amount of money today.