Checking Out Early — Fly Wins Again

Feeling a bit tired. I’m off to take a heavily medicated nap.

In the meantime, it appears I was right again. Markets do not trade lower with WTI up. You should get out there now and buy all of the crude stocks.

My Quant is higher 65 basis points today, poleaxing the benchmark. If you want to learn how to do this shit, I teach it for free — just pay for a god damned membership to Exodus — you cheap bastards.

Other than that, I enjoyed wins in NUGT, ROKU, AYX, and RPD.

Will bonds reverse and go lower?

Absolutely not.

Good day.

Adding to my exposure to treasuries, I upped the ante and bought some TMF.

Figure this shit out. You can get a higher yield on a US 1 mo than a US 10 yr.

What does it all mean? What does it all mean?

WTI is flat and junk bonds barely changed. Wake me up when stocks are down 1,000.

Bear in mind, my advice provided to you today is impaired by a heavily medicated and sleep deprived mind. I could give you the long version — but I rather not. Just know that I’m feeling a wee bit under the weather today — drugged up on anti-histamines and DayQuil. I had been nursing three children with the flu and now I’ve gotten something truly dreadful for myself as a reward.

Markets are weak, but oil is not. You should not sell because all sell offs begin with WTI dumping out. Since it’s not, I suspect this fade is short lived. We are seeing a rather robust, if I might be so bold, move higher in gold today. An enterprising man might book profits and be done with it. But men heavily dosed up, sick and ached to the bone will hold his 15% position in NUGT and perhaps even bid for more.

Here’s an interesting piece of information for you. CME futures are now pricing in a December rate CUT.

The ten year is off another 4bps to 2.41%. My TLT is edging higher and everything you thought you knew about bonds is meaningless. Apparently, we can have a roaring economy and lower rates too. How do you like that?

At the present, more than $10 trillion in bonds are now negative yielding on a global basis. I could screen shot and show you the fucking bonds — but you’re too stupid to understand the significance anyway.

It means NOTHING is what I’m trying to tell you — all of it and none of it.

This was the level I was concerned about — the potential head and shoulders top — ransacking and cold hand slapping longs across the face with stinging anger. This is where you sell — if you were just in it for a few laughs and some money.

Hard money assclowns remain long for the games to come — the eventual dollar disintegration and the evaporation of your neighbors net worth under mountains of Federal debt.

What am I going to do?

Unsure. Haven’t made up my mind yet. The quick and easy money has been made.

This is such an ominous nothing-burger. Sounds really fucked up, but in actuality means nothing. We’ve learned that negative yields are simply another human mistake, a benign one at that — such as the redundant television remote control or automatic garbage cans.

This is probably your biggest market story this week.. The value of negative-yielding debt just topped $10 trillion (again) pic.twitter.com/iB2eLXRjFv

— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) March 25, 2019

The deflationary vortex is real. Those of you without any money know for sure that it exists. The rest of you view it, as I do, as Santa Claus.

A SELL THE NEWS EVENT!

Nasdaq futures are lower by 35. The bond market is rallying again, with the 10yr down another 2bps to 2.436%. And gold is being bid higher, by 0.11%.

What does it all mean?

Absolutely nothing at all.

You know, it’s a damn shame people get emotionally invested in politics. Many of my family members get so worked up over it and I suppose when you get older it serves as entertainment — but it’s a poor form of entertainment, conducted by malefactors and caitiffs. I’d much rather spend my time learning how to properly drink whiskey, or perhaps how to make a good cocktail, or learning how to cook. But I suppose, once again, that’s my preference.

When I talk to people about reading classic literature, I can see it in their eyes the vacuous disinterest. Anything that requires objective analysis and thinking is often chided as being a waste of time. People will say “The Great Gatsby is a shitty book” and I will hit them in their face.

Ernest Hemingway was an avid skier. He talked about it in several of his books. In “A Moveable Feast” Hem talked about going to Switzerland with his mistress to enjoy the powder with a leather bag of red wine. This was before the faggotry of ski lifts when men had to hike up the mountain in order to ski down it. He said it made his legs stronger and he earned his enjoyment, through the agony of scaling up a mountain in the freezing temperatures, with a burlap hood and heavy wool pants to keep him warm.

It’s an allegory of sorts for the present day nuMale — a boy disinterested in putting in the work wanting to become a star instantly, rich and famous for no reason other than the fact that he’s a fool. To that end, the media has done a fantastic job GETTING RICH the past decade or two, telling fantastic tales, fables, to the American people. The ends never justified the means — but by the time people figured out they’d be long gone.

give Trump his due: under withering scrutiny, “no collusion” held up

— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) March 24, 2019

The Mueller business is over and this doesn’t mean Trump is a great guy. It only means a cloud of uncertainty has been lifted from the executive branch. Supposing once again, markets will likely favor this news, since Trump is a super easy money dork — who box watches stocks all day and really wants to get a trade deal done, a very beautiful one at that, in order to establish a legacy of being the best stock market promoter in the history of American politics.

This is, once again, a no politics zone. Believe me, I will not be getting into political intrigue again. But since I did dedicate nearly 2 years of content on Trump, politics, and my hopes to one day see Hillary rot inside prison, I wanted to share a treatise of sorts with you — from Matt Taibbi, who is an unbelievable investigative journalist.

He’s left leaning of course, but he’s not stupid. In this article he documents the Russiagate probe in his grande stupidity and how it became this generations WMD.

The sequence of events in that second week of January, 2017 will now need to be heavily re-examined. We now know, from his own testimony, that former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper had some kind of role in helping CNN do its report, presumably by confirming part of the story, perhaps through an intermediary or two (there is some controversy over whom exactly was contacted, and when).

Why would real security officials litigate this grave matter through the media? Why were the world’s most powerful investigative agencies acting like they were trying to move a stock, pushing a private, unverified report that even Buzzfeed could see had factual issues? It made no sense at the time, and makes less now.

Enjoy.

This is what is going to happen.

You’re going to see futures lower on Monday and sell at the open. Then around 11am news will come out, the same news mind you, that Trump is really close to a deal with China. This news will spark a rally — you will chase said rally, and then we’ll fade into the bell. This circle of mistrust will continue and culminate until your brokerage accounts hit zero and you’re forced to divorce your wife, abandon your kids, and become a coal miner in the Congo.

While in the Congo, you’ll learn that the Trump administration finally etched out a deal, sending stocks soaring. You’ll fly back to the United States, reopen a brokerage account and go all in — only to immediately lose all of it after the Mueller report is leaked and it recommends the President be sent to an insane asylum.

“They are going to have to find a way to meet,” former U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky told CNBC’s Martin Soong on Saturday at the China Development Forum in Beijing.

While talks to resolve their differences are ongoing, China and the United States remain far apart, with a lack of progress on forced technology transfers and the actual implementation of any deal.

These stories are as old as time. It’s merely human behavior vapidly displayed in real time, affecting the pricing of equities. When intermingled with the emotions of traders, if not in sync, it is a lethal combination.

If you want to extricate yourselves from this tomfoolery — listen to me now. Take 75% of your money and designate it for long term capital appreciation. Do it not and you’ll be scratching rocks in the Congo before you know it.