A Truly Fine Day in the Markets

I did whatever the hell I wanted to today. I booked a sharp, normally debilitating loss in LYFT — edged out at -17%. Then I decided “let’s make it all back”, so I traded in and out of TROV for a 17% gain. This is life on Wall Street now — where the rich get richer and the lucky get luckier and the poor get babies.

I bought some ALT towards the end of the day — not because of anything other than a desire to see myself profiting from this stock. I said to myself “this looks like a fine stock to make money in”, and then I bought it — no one could stop me and I do whatever the hell I want.

For the month of March, my Quant made 2.6% and my gains for the quarter exceeded +17%. Annualized, I’m on pace to make no less than +68% this year and I’m not impressed. The way I see it, I’m entitled to this money — the hard work and toil of previous generations was superfluous and foolish. Nowadays, we sit vigil to the computer and talk to one another about how grande our lives are — the vacations to be had, the new Peloton machine to sit idle, the new scotch bonnet based hot sauced to be enjoyed amidst the fires in our stomach which casts an ominous pall. One day said sauce will cause an affliction of horrible measures and you’ll regret ever picking up that god damned bottle.

I bid you farewell. Signing off for now.

Le Fly

I bought ALT — into the bell, for the glory.

I sold TROV for a +17% day trade.

UPDATE: I sold TIGR for +13%.

It’s such a corny title — and frankly I don’t give shit. This is a day meant for snoring — lounging on a chair while the portfolio drifts higher. I’m sure the programmers who designed this realm created this mood as a mode to fool people into a false sense of security — just so they could clown-rape them later. Even so, I do enjoy it.

The only thing that concerns me is my Bubble Basket is down for the day. We’re supposed to be enjoying risk and the riskiest stocks are down for the day.

That’s odd.

At the vet today, the fucking dog doctor made me feel like a bastard dog owner — just because my dog looks mangy AF and because she’s missing a few vaccines. I was going tell him — ‘listen here, Dog-Fucker — some people work for a living and don’t have time to play games with animals.’ But I refrained and sheepishly nodded and agreed to at some point bring my bitch back there so they could inject and prod — poke and grab. Fuck off vets.

He also tried to tell me to stop feeding the dog table food — because she’s 2 pounds overweight. I suppose if humans were fed only kibble for their entire lives — we’d live longer too. What the fuck is his problem — trying to deny my nice little dog from enjoying a morsel of food while alive for an entire 10 year life span. Fuck off vets.

Moving on, stocks are great — blah, blah, blah.

Top picks: TROV, MOMO, TIGR, JPM, FHL

As much as I wanted it to work — the trend is, inexorably, broken. I sold my triple sized position in NUGT for a 5% loss and also sold out of AU. These aren’t nice occurrences and I hate losses — but it’s necessary housekeeping.

On the other end of the spectrum, I have gains in ROKU, TIGR, SLCA and GNFT, just to name a few.

With cash on hand and an appetite for Chinese, I stepped in and bought FHL, MOMO, and JD. I didn’t buy these stocks because someone else told me they were good — or because the trends are pointing up. I bought these stocks because they are the best — the number one, two, and three stocks in all of the market. These stocks are the best because I said they are — the very best stocks in all of the world.

NOTE: Banks are breaking loose — as predicted. JPM for the win.

Not that big of a deal — to be honest. My Bubble Basket is +30% for the year. The impressive part of the Quant strategy is the mechanized approach to it all, coupled with the creativeness to find a system that can beat the SPY — and it’s working. Thus far, my gains in this account for 2019 is +17%.

Trading accounts are likely to have higher returns — but that’s highly subjective trading and not exactly repeatable. You get the flu, or a stomach virus — next thing you know — you’re long LYFT and end up getting blow out this morning for a -17% drubbing.

I digress.

I sold LYFT this morning for -17% loss.

For the month of April — the Quant is positioned more conservatively, sourced 50% from a value pool, and long TLT and some utilities.

Markets are +200 — but it feels a lot weaker. I haven’t had a chance to scour the market yet — as I’ve been busy with my longer term stuff this morning, as well as dealing with dog and her vet.

Sty tuned for my intra-day take soon.

Welcome to Q2, fuckers.

News out of China, robust — in spite of tariffs.

Shares in China jumped in early trade, with the rest of Asia following suit.

Factory activity in China jumped unexpectedly in March — rising for the first time in four months — according to an official survey released Sunday. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index released on Monday also surprised on the upside.

On the U.S.-China trade front, high-level trade negotiations between the two economic powerhouses are set to resume in Washington this week following last week’s talks in Beijing.

How do ya like that? That’s what happens when you have dat exuberance.

Dow futures are +155, oil is up, yields are running higher. “The Fly” wins again.

Nite.

It’s the year 2019 and you have all sort of technology at your fingertips. You have wizards online, such as Le Fly, offering high powered algorithms and strategies for a song — and there you are — like a moron — paying an investment advisor 50-100bps per annum for useless advice.

Ninety nine percent of my IAR readers will agree quietly, but never acquiesce the sordid belief that somewhere, deep down into the recesses of their souls — they have a viable opinion on the matter.

The Nasdaq is within 5% of record highs. The gambler version of increasing your account size the coming month would be to go small cap, in the hopes that the degeneracy sloppily spills over into bad stocks. This, of course, could happen — but it’s a low probability bet — and not suitable for people who lack time or patience to trade in the cesspools of Wall.

But here’s a screen, courtesy of Exodus, that can very easily provide you with returns — as we stretch out towards the stars and high new, bright, clean, record, fucking, highs.

The screen is simple enough — but you can’t get it anywhere else but here. Tech stocks with market caps over $5b, Sharpe ratios over 1, proprietary technical rank above 2, average volume above 500k — within 10% of their 52 week highs.

If this doesn’t happen, I’ll literally kill myself.

Rates going down means nothing at all — total garbage and obfuscation. A sinking rate environment, not coupled with sinking stocks, isn’t a reliable indicator. As a matter of fact, I believe it to be a glitch.

What’s important to remember are the key drivers to stocks.

Oil — bullish
Junk bonds — bullish
Leverage Loans — okay, not great, but still semi-bullish
Technicals of stocks — great

Remember to ensure participation by tethering (extra Bogged) your portfolio to the market. This means you should not own bullshit micro-caps or any stocks with negative correlations to the market. Go with the sheep; they know where the tall grass is hidden — quite delicious and nutritious.

Heading into next week, the only thing that can change my mind is an Apple warning. This is earnings warning season, so be on guard for that. I’ll be closing out my Quant portfolio for March, a supreme winner. Final stats will be posted on Monday. For the month of April, I will be allocating half into value stocks, and also TLT. I am doing this against my better judgement. This is what the strategy says I should do — so I won’t fight it.

I want to see if oil can accelerate into the $60’s, and if gold will continue to break lower. I am heavily long NUGT, and several frackers in my trading account and like both — but will quickly sell them if the trends flag. These are not tightly correlated to the overall market. The Nasdaq can run 5% next week and I can lose money in frackers and gold. This is what I’m saying about owning stocks tightly correlated to the market.

Own larger cap stocks, preferably in tech or healthcare, for optimal performance.

Time to go clean to the olde garage.

Ciao.

Okay, I’ve had enough and cannot take anymore.

The market is within an earshot of record highs, and the Trump administration is calling on the Fed to ‘immediately’ slash interest rates by 50bps? What in the fuck?

No, you do not slash rates when times are good, when everyone is fat — living high off the hog — faces filled with puffed pastries and sordid cheeseburgers that fetch $50 a pop. Unemployment is sub 4% and wage growth is burning hot at 3.4%. The idea that we need an emergency rate cut is laughable. But, lo and behold, Fed Funds futures are now indicating a 62% chance of a cut in December and a 72% chance of one in January 2020.

We’re living in fucked times — when down is up and vice versa. Rates will, mind you, fall victim to ravenous market forces and bolt higher soon. You’d be wise to sell bonds short here — get long some banks — blow out of those high dividend payers that recently enjoyed respite. The REITs and the Utes will soon come under selling pressure, because no one gives a shit what Larry Kudlow has to say about rates. If the market is near new highs and the economy humming along — interest rates will be forced higher.

On this present path, higher oil, lower rates, the pipelines look like an idea that could stick.

Aside from that, I had a fine day — with gains in TIGR, GNFT and HCLP. I really like frackers here. Losses are accentuated by my emotionally driven purchase of LYFT. Quant was up and will be closed out on Monday for a new portfolio.

God speed and have a great weekend.