Let’s Analyze This Big Rally

News broke last night that China would meet with America to resolve the trade war. One day before, Hong Kong ceded to protester demands and canceled their extradition agreement with China. On this news, stocks have been flying off the handle for the past two day, pushing rates up, and gold lower.

What in the fuck is everyone smoking? I’m not one to piss on parades, but I’m here now on the roof, urinating onto your heads.

This is the biggest farce I’ve ever seen. The only caveat is Trump’s twitter account likely to remain silent about China from now until then. If that is your reason for buying today, so be it. However, just know, it’s all bullshit.

At a minimum, we’re going to pull in from here.

As for gold, I’m mixed on it and need to see some strength into the end of day.

I’m 30% cash in my trading account, with an honest bias to the downside from here. If I see price action doing what I think it’ll do, I’ll throw some hedges on quickly.

Let’s just chalk it up to a flurry, if you will, of bad luck. I took 4 fucking trades towards the end of day yesterday and got poleaxed in two of them, none of them participated in this rally — and my gold positions are getting ship-wrecked.

I had MDB into earnings. BAM -6%
I had this African shit JMIA — BAM, spear to the face -5.5%
And I had ROKU, the stock that never goes down until now. BAM -3.5%
And AYX, which I sold for a paltry +0.75%

Normally I’d declare ‘CATASTROPHE’ but this is all too much for me to handle now.

Any stocks down more than 1% on a +450 day deserves to be sold. Fuck that. This is not what God had intended. I’ve got some rotten apples that I need to discard.

As for the metals, I’ll figure that out next, but my hunch is to buy dips. But in my case, HODL, since I’m already very long.

Ladies and gentlemen, it was nice of you to participate in the latest saga of Trade Wars, winning the war against China because it’s fun and easy to do. This just out via CNBC. Expect a long dick’d rally to the upside first thing tomorrow morning.

China’s Ministry of Commerce said Thursday that the leaders of the U.S. and Chinese trade talks held a phone call in the morning and agreed to meet in early October for another round of negotiations.

The two sides agreed to hold another round of trade negotiations in Washington, D.C., towards the beginning of next month, and consultations will be made in mid-September in preparation for the meeting, the Commerce Ministry statement said, according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese-language text.

Previously, both sides had indicated they would meet in September.

It’s fucking over. They’re gonna meet; ergo, and this goes without saying — STOCKS ARE GOING TO SOAR.

Lucky for me, I stepped in late in the day with not 1, or 2, or 3, BUT 4 OVERNIGHT TRADES. This is who I am, and you’re nothing.

While it’s true, my personal life is anything but comfortable. I am driving inside of a loaner car from 2004 that smells like a fucking crayon box and it has egg shells in it. I suppose southerners peel off eggs while their driving and toss the refuse onto the rugs. I can only assume this to be true, since I’ve seen it with my own eyes. My house still has 500 unopened boxes and everything is strewn out in a chaotic manic mess that makes me feel like going outside in jogging pants and slippers. But I don’t. I refrain from such degeneracy because of who I am and what I represent, which is an ideal that is MOAR and something better than you. This is most aptly demonstrated by my divine stock picks — descended down from the heavens into your computer screens.

Dow futures are +300 and on this day of the good Lord 9/4/2020, “The Fly” is fully fucking invested without hedges, barreling into a chest filled with unmarked bank notes.

My opinions change with the winds of the market. One second I am foaming by the mouth bearish, working with the Grande Druid lodge on rituals to profit from the coming storm, the next minute I’m bullish and decanting a 1st growth Bordeaux.

Try to keep up in this wacky world of high finance, where the men are men and the women are men and we all make big ball’d decisions to cut each other’s necks and bleed out thy neighbors for sport.

With zeal, I approach this market like anything else, extreme verve and vim — brimming with excitement to outdo everyone else. With that being said, I stepped into the foray today and allocated on the long side, all available cash — easy come, easy go.

All 4 purchases have been designated as overnight picks, which commands that I sell tomorrow, no matter the outcome. This is my life, my prison, toiling for the masses on a grande stage, performing magic tricks of graceful eloquence so that you, the unwashed reader pleb, could profit and perhaps escape a life of extreme moribund par-ness. Might I add, “The Fly” is a master writer and is able to carry on, somewhat effortlessly, weaving thru the King’s English with an estimable temerity, wooing scores into my ranks — both loyal and devoted cult members of the iBC brand.

My last 15 trades, all varying in degrees of success and failure. Set backs and drawdowns are, of course, common elements, and naturally, part of this game. We limit our exposure to the losers by cutting them off post haste.

TWLO +0.26%
MUX +16.1%
BBBY +1.5%
FSLY +7.1%
RGLD +6.3%
AUY +15.9%
(CRWD -6.9%)
MDB +1.4%
MTCH +2.8%
MU +1.8%
(EDU -0.7%)
DRIP +5.8%
EXK +16.5%
(IQ -4.3%)
(DRIP -6.3%)

I’ll be sure to let you know how today’s EOD trades faired tomorrow. Or, you can cease from being a miser and join the League of Gentlemen and Jungle at Exodus. Your call.

You see the market taking off and you’re elated by it. But what you don’t see is gold, pressing higher yet again with its retarded step-sister silver doting behind it. You do not understand why it’s going higher, but it vexes you. You aren’t curious, but instead angry by it. You take to Twitter to post stupid facts, such as gold is still underperforming stocks over the past 5 years and other like minded folks applaud you for it — because they’re angry at gold too. So many people are angry at this shiny metal that is higher by 440% over the past twenty years, all the while the buying power of your King Dollars have fallen by more than 60%.

But gold is stupid and it’s also for morons, but it’s up nonetheless. You and your stupid friends can do nothing about it. You get angry and piss your pants talking about it — but there is nothing you can do. The price of gold is going to recourd highs and you’ll have no options other than to watch in horror as people like me, and men of my ilk, profit from the denigration of your King Dollar and its stupid support system.

GOOD DAY.

(At the time of this post, the author, Sir Fly, was 20% weighted in gold and gold miners in his quant and trading accounts. Good day, once again!)

It was a coin flip and here were are pushing +200 like yesterday never happened. If you’re trying to short the market, you ought to take out life insurance first — because this type of pin action is going to give you a heart attack.

Citi think a trade deal isn’t happening any time soon.

Trade negotiations between the U.S. and China broke down last month.

Investment bank Citi said on Wednesday that it sees “no deal before the 2020 US election.”

As the trade war continues, Citi expects U.S. economic metrics, such as consumer fundamentals, will “likely deteriorate further.”

No one cares.

Old man Greenspan is out with commentary, suggesting the US is heading towards negative rates.

No one cares.

Stocks are gleefully swimming higher. Shorts should be covered, hedges closed out. The FAGBOX is intact and we’re racing towards the top end of that range. Moreover, you should assume we’ll break it and establish a new range to the upside.

Up or down? That’s the trillion dollar question.

Here is my vantage point.

FAGBOX initiated.

We can go either way, frankly. I would not be surprised. I do, however, have a bias — barreling into September. I believe, at a minimum, we’ll see sharply lower prices in the morning, followed by recovery. The break in junk bonds is notable and can start to make this squall grow some balls and really instill fear into the weaker hearts of men who have no business in this game.

While most of you get ship-wrecked by this malevolent tape, “Le Fly” is banking coin. He sold his DRIP this morning and re-shuffled his Quant, which booked a gain of +1.2% in August, and is now reallocating into various names.

Did I mention I sold EXK for a +16.5% gain? Oh, I did that too.

So what’s next on the agenda? Something exotic?

Well, I am 35% cash, long some miners, old man stocks, and other shit that is holding up well. Stuff that isn’t holding up well is sold immediately. I don’t have the time or inclination for recoveries. I am in a state of winship all the time and if I’m not I best to get into one in short order. Life is fleeting and the market is a bitch — might as well milk it best I can to the best of my God given abilities and let the chum come along for the ride.

Yields are very low. Money will chase yield or stocks paying dividends and gold. Don’t forget gold. Please don’t forget silver.

That is all.

I’ve been saying this for more than a year. China is likely to wait until the 2020 elections, or perhaps 2024, to cut a deal with America. Why ink a long term deal that hurts you if the main component of said deal (Trump) will be gone in a few years.

Trump addressed that this morning, which is interesting and also terrifying for China.

….And then, think what happens to China when I win. Deal would get MUCH TOUGHER! In the meantime, China’s Supply Chain will crumble and businesses, jobs and money will be gone!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 3, 2019

If China does not ink a deal before 2020 and Trump gets elected, they’re completely fucked. By extension, the lower and middle class in America will be fucked too, fucked with inflation.

WTI is -3.5%, copper down nearly 2%.

I’d like nothing more than to see, or dare I say, preside over the market Mccrashing into the floor boards and beneath them. All of the beauty from this market waxed and erased from existence, replaced with Middle Earth’d Orcs who eat weak humans for sustenance and carry out the will of evil for purposes of end of days.

We need a good biblical cleansing and I’d be willing to sacrifice for it.

Sadly, we’re not going to get any of that. As we speak, Larry Kudlow is combing his hair and greasing it to his head — preparing statements that are sure to get the market’s dick rock solid again.

Speaking of which, Succession is the best show on tv now, makes Billions look like the assclownery it is. I highly recommend watching it.

As for me, I’d getting settled in nicely. My office is finally set up, classical music playing, and the coffee is flowing freely and with strength.

I have cash reserved in my trading, to deal with today’s 200+ drubbing, and a DRIP hedge that was tossed on Friday as my weekend hold. I will be selling it today and looking for longs.

NOTE: GOLD! I am 15% weighted gold in my Quant, which is being reallocated today, and 10% miners in trading account.