Grandma Yellen: The Next Move by the Fed Might Be to Cut

Gold is vacillating between a very tight range — and on the cusp of breaking a 5 year resistance level. Earlier this afternoon, Yellen said the Fed’s next move might be to cut, instead of hike. At a minimum, this is misinformation. But in the event this were to be true, you can rest assured, gold will fantastically break higher and eclipse the highs enjoyed in 2012, some 40% from here.

“Of course it’s possible. If global growth really weakens and that spills over to the United States where financial conditions tighten more and we do see a weakening in the U.S. eonomy, it’s certainly possible that the next move is a cut,” she said. “But both outcomes are possible.

Top picks: NUGT, GRUB, ESTC

UPDATE: I sold GRUB, +4.6% — not holding this shit into earnings.

I need to get out of the God damned house for an hour or two. Working from home certainly has its advantages, with the only real disadvantage being it fucking sucks. Stuck in the house, away from the civil world, unencumbered by the vapid and disgusting conversations that could be happening with intelligent life — instead entreated to a diverse world of looking after dogs and scheming ahead for dinner. Now that I’ve taken to cooking, I find my life to be very similar to, dare I say, a house wife.

Emasculating? Perhaps. Then again, I’ve always been comfortable inside of my skin.

Boring is more like it. The repetitious cadence of hearing the plumbing whizz throughout the house — and seeing how the afternoon light casts off the scales and recoils — makes me want to bash my brains against the wall and out.

I’m sufficiently entertained with my online ‘persona’. I could only imagine how dreadful life would be without it. What do work at home Dads do when they cannot find conversation amongst a common minded folk online? Do they simply whither away into dust and go bizarrely insane?

Don’t talk to me about the fucking markets. I’m the fuck — out of here.

See you in a few.

PS: I’m not actually going out to do anything fun. As a matter of fact, I’m going to the grocery store. F-M-L.

Just as I thought, crude made a move and it was higher — buoying stocks — causing a sharp rally. Will it last? The fuck do I know?

I bought some COHR — because MUH lasers. Also, I bought PTI — because I like money.

Semis are strong AF today and I don’t have the heart to short anything here. But I also cannot buy much more.

Time to eat a sandwich.

I sold SSNC, HUYA, YEXT, and ZYNE for mixed bag of nuts. With some of the proceeds, I weighed into NUGT and made my position magnanimous — a 15% holding — maximum for me.

I want to buy inverse ETFs, conduct ritualistic sacrifices inside the Grande Druid Lodge, and oversee the markets dive back into misery. But that’s just me reflecting my own disapproval with my current state of affairs. Knowing this, I am going to remain in cash and permit the market to go down a day or two before acting.

Cannabis stocks are cracking under the pressure of a grande stupidity infectious to those who smoke blunts during the evening and buy securities in the day. The people who are long pot stocks are, mostly, the dumbest people on the face of the planet. This is a small side effect of cannabis — a deleterious raping of the mind by a drug being marketed as a cure-all for any ailment presently trending across the healthcare community.

Need a heart transplant?

No problem — smoke some pot and you won’t need one. The heart will heal itself.

Look you, I don’t have time for this shit. Let’s just agree on one salient point.

NO ONE IS WATCHING GOLD. You should be watching it. You should also look at the chart, really look at it. LOOK AT IT.

Boring morning, except for crude plodding along the bottom of its recent range.

Truth is, while markets are strong and biased to trade higher, if crude breaks lower again — the rally will dissipate and it won’t be long until people start worrying about the fucking junk bond market again.

I have a few things to sell this morning — underperforming assets. I’ll likely move them to cash and wait for resolution.

If this is 2011 and not 2008, then we’re on track to reach the highs of October by April of 2019.

Then

Now

It’s pointless to make predictions about the fundies. All I can point to is divergence between oil and junk bonds, with the former dropping and HYG not giving a fuck — moving higher with stocks. Bullish. And then you have the effervescent feeling of brightness creeping back into the narrative. It felt gloomy last month and I don’t feel that way anymore — and I’m a very doomful person.

How we get there.

+7.5% over the next two months. It won’t happen gradually, but all of a sudden. We’re likely to consolidate until Apple gives us the nod for Q2. Then and only then will we breach the former highs. In the after-hours, one of my favorite SAAS stocks, ZEN, crushed and even SNAP is enjoying the bull market.

How are we doing in Exodus?

The Pelican Room is the best damn stock forum in America. Give it a try — advanced mathematical algos and data for free — you god damned misers.

I’m offensive, granted, very offensive. But political talk will not be tolerated in Exodus. Please refrain from doing so.

As we anticipate a bullish spring, we’ll keep minding the charts and be on the lookouts for those dastardly big ass black candles (BBC).

I sold AMRS for a 26% DAY TRADE — you fucking ingrates. When was the last time you did anything like that? I have a bunch of irons in the fire — stocks readying to jimmy higher. You can bet against stocks if you want; and you can also kill yourselves too.

But why do it?

There are so many better ways to lose money or die. You can spend the money buying nice homes and then turning those homes into fucking junkyards, much to the chagrin of your neighbors. Instead of killing yourself, why not become RAMBO — travel to a war zone of choice and pursue your dream to save the world from tyranny in your homemade Captain America suit?

The gains, at this point, are perverse. We’re simply running the path of least resistance. Look for another 2% up and then grind.

Top picks: ESTC, REZI, YEXT, TLRY.

I have more — but you’ll need to join the league gentlemen inside Exodus to find out.

We’re all guilty of recency bias, the idea that present conditions are all that matters and the things that happened in the past are simply antiquated and unimportant. That’s not true of course — and as stocks move into areas of congestion — levels where traders went long and lost a short while ago — you’ll start to see the gains grind to a halt, flag, and then fail.

Here are the levels I am looking at, marked by where fuckers went long and wrong.

That are encircled is the “FagBox” from which we traded in a few months ago. People who went long at that time are only now realizing their cost basis and will move to cash, elated to have their money back.  From $170 to $175, I suspect markets will begin to grind. It’s also possible we fail at this $170 levels and head back lower to $165 or even $160. I’m open to the possibilities.

A decisive move above $175 would make me extremely bullish; but at the stage in the rally, I’d wager my peas and carrots it won’t happen — at least not yet. We’ll need months of grind and fake outs before earning that level. Plus I’m pretty sure investors want to see how Q2 is shaping up before making some large directional trades.

AMRS is the CBD play of the day. The stock is up sharply on this news.

Amyris, Inc. (Nasdaq:AMRS), a leader in the development and production of sustainable ingredients for the Health & Wellness, Clean Beauty and Flavors & Fragrances markets, today announced that it has signed a binding term sheet for a planned cannabinoid development, licensing and commercialization partnership valued at up to $255 million (not including significant royalties once the products are commercialized) with a confidential partner. The $255 million in payments include an upfront payment and the remainder are linked to milestones that are expected over the next 12-36 months following the signing of a definitive final agreement. Amyris has a successful track record of leveraging its unique technology platform to scale No Compromise™ sustainable products and successfully bring them to commercialization. In addition to lab-based milestone payments, this agreement also provides for significant milestone payments for commercially scaling each product.

I don’t give a shit, either way. I feel, in a sense, invincible, so I bought some.

Earlier in the session, I sold the following.

SONO +11%
FTNT +8.2%
PG +0.8%
JVA +31%

Also, I bought REZI — because three white candles.

My sense, I kind of want to sell more — but I’m also torn between liking the vibe to this tape. I can feel the short’s getting squeezed and I want to help annihilate them. I have several stocks up sharply from my basis and will be selling those first. My goal is to be more than 50% cash by the time the QQQs get to $173.

Complacency is washing over Wall Street now. You can feel the indifference in the air, the subtle arrogance that is born in bull runs. It’s important to remember the reasons for the initial decline and book easy profits when afforded the chance.

By March, the market will be looking for Q2 guidance out of Apple. That gives you less than a month before another possible Apple warning. If we get such a warning, the market will retest the lows, AND MORE.

This is the headline on CNBC today.

My target for the Qs is $175. I think we can realize something close to that by next week. There will be a jarring day or two, shaking people out, and then the final sprint towards $175 — and then nothing. After a 10% rally in January, it is not likely we will rally too much more in February, or in March. It’s possible, but not likely.

Personally, I have so many stocks to manage, it’s almost burdensome. Being fully invested is a hardship — because it means that I have to watch and analyze almost 20 individual stocks. I’ll probably begin selling today — leaving the proceeds in cash — happy to have made some easy money after a large bounce off the fucking bottom.