Earnings season, the quintessential fuckery of all investing fuckeries. The temptation to ride thru one of these calls — because God loves us specifically and because our genius demands reward, is always present and palpable.
Case in point, I sold PYX the just before earnings — because it was the right thing to do for me, at the time. I was in PYX for a trade, not earnings, and didn’t feel like gambling.
The result?
PYX beat and shot higher by 30% the next day.
Seeing this beat, I demurred my cautiousness and decided to hold another one of my holdings into earnings last night. That stock was QLYS.
I didn’t have an edge, or even an affinity for the stock. It was a trade, but because it was my stock, and my genius, I felt, well, if PYX could do it — why can’t QLYS?
Futures are up more than 100. I’m keeping an eye on Bitcoin and cryptos here, believing they might be bottoming out and fixing to lick higher. On the issue of gold — this shit is coiling. Consider the fact the dollar has been strong AF, yet gold is vacillating near the highs.
This level, right here and right now, has been resistance for 6 mother-fucking years. Do you hear me you fucking faggots?
The bull case?
ACTUAL INFLATION.
Watch the TIPs for evidence of big money hedging against the specter of it. Consider wage growth now is strongest in a decade and we’re not coming off a trough, as was the case in 2009. We’re in a bull market, an extended one, yet wage growth is only now busting loose.
Following this train of thought, also considering demographic, millennial faggots will be fast approaching family age and they can’t afford shit in the city. So they’ll opt for some grass and large square footage.
What am I suggesting?
For the bull market in housing to extend to the suburbs next, helping shares of TOL, BZH, and material plays like EXP, MAS, and TREX. Why the fuck not?
Listen to me as if I was screaming into your face.
You have no basis to be short here. Markets have all but told you it’s going higher, even after today’s big cocked move to the upside. As a point in fact, often times larger runs occur in esoteric names after massive melt ups. Today advertises to the normies that money is being made and they’ll follow in like lemmings tomorrow.
I told you earlier, big ass cash positions await on the sidelines. I’d like to highlight some of my ideas, but feel increasingly restricted due to my Capstone obligations. Nevertheless, I can readily advise you to be long and in stocks that correlate with the market.
It’s worth noting, FUCKTARDS are still on Twitter talking about topping out and those people will have their faces punched off soon, and strongly. It’s one thing to be a bear, a whole other thing to walk down your portfolio.
My largest position are still gold and it’s not participating today, which is fine. The melt up in stocks is causing defensive positions to be liquidated; but the bull case in gold has never been stronger, literally — when taking into account the record level of wage growth in the country now and the idea that inflation might, finally, be something to worry about.
Regrettably, I sold PYX yesterday, ahead of earnings — because I had no edge. The stock is up 30% today and sometimes that’s how it goes. That stock, in my opinion, will continue higher, at least until tomorrow, as momo traders try to catch a glimpse of greatness and sojourn into profit.
Anyone over the age of 35 remembers the market crashes of yesteryear — the malevolent crashes of a comical nature that ruined so many people and their households. Kids getting tossed out of their lambos — because they’ve been repossessed. Wives being told her Hermes collection needed to be sold on Ebay, in order to pay for the boat. Husbands being told the boat had to go in order to pay for the mortgage. The bank telling everyone to GTFO because the house was being foreclosed and they intended to sell it.
It was bad.
The recent downturn forced many people my age and older to cash up. Now, according to Bank of America, those same people are assed out.
source: CNBC
Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch’s latest fund manager survey, which gauges where global pros are positioning, showed the biggest net overweight position in cash since January 2009, just two months before the market bottomed and set up the longest bull run in Wall Street history.
Sentiment moving to extremes has been a reliable contrarian indicator for market historically. The January stock market rally coincided with a cash allocation of 4.8 percent, which is above the 4.5 percent threshold that Bank of America considers a bullish sign.
Markets are spinning higher and nothing can stop it. Oil is up. Junk bonds are up. Industrials are leading the way, optimistic about a China deal.
I have no warnings for you and only happy tidings. Go correlate with the market and make some money.
It appears the morons in Congress have agreed to not do much for Trump’s great big beautiful wall — only lending the President a morsel of money from which to play with. Instead of the pittance $5.7b he requested, which would pay for about 15 feet of wall, Congress might permit $1.4b to escape from their clutches.
Trump, naturally, will agree to these terms — because building a wall now is a stupid thing to do. He’d much rather drag it out for the 2020 campaigns, using it as a lightening rod to stoke up fanaticism in the trailer park neighborhoods of Pennsylvania and Ohio.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Congressional negotiators announced an agreement late Monday to prevent a government shutdown and finance construction of new barriers along the U.S.-Mexico border, overcoming a late-stage hang-up over immigration enforcement issues that had threatened to scuttle the talks.
Republicans were desperate to avoid another bruising shutdown. They tentatively agreed to far less money for President Donald Trump’s border wall than the White House’s $5.7 billion wish list, settling for a figure of about $1.4 billion, according to a senior congressional aide.
“We reached an agreement in principle between us on all the homeland security and the other six bills,” said Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.).
Over at Casa Del Fly — the house is now brimming with the hottest and the best water money could buy. The coldest water can be found here — freely flowing from the disgusting Mercer County reservoir, which is laden heavily with lead and other toxic materials. As a point in fact, the Mercer County water is so bad — it’s poisonous. More than that, it destroys all of the copper pipes in the walls, causing floods throughout the county. The plumbers love the water — because it keeps them busy. I hate the water — because it causes a sundry of problems and also because it’s poisonous.
The house is now screaming with the tunes of Stan Getz, arguably the best jazz musician of all time.
I didn’t do much today, other than sell PYX for breakeven. I’m going thru a spate of bad trades again, mostly small and non-eventful — but that’s the point — uneventful. In the big scheme of things, unless you’re turning over your portfolio on a constant basis, expect to make little whilst the market consolidates and trades sideways.
It’s my belief markets will remain held down thru March. In the meantime, gold is in the bull market and poised to break higher. Today was a down day — but those down days, at least recently, have proven to be excellent entry points.
UPDATE: Smartphone foundry — AMRK warned.
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.12 per share, $0.04 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.08; revenues fell 5.8% year/year to $1.08 bln vs the $1.06 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
Reports gross margin of 16.9%.
Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of ($0.27)-($0.07) vs. $0.03 S&P Capital IQ Consensus; sees Q1 revs of $840-$920 mln vs. $1.02 bln two analyst estimate. Sees gross margin of 9-13%.
Commentary: “Our first quarter revenue guidance reflects the inventory correction currently underway in the smartphone market.”
Day 3 at Cade de Fly and still no water to speak of. Well, technically speaking, I can enjoy the comforts of only cold water — but then I need to go downstairs into the grim cellar and fish the water out of the run off pan. I do this with a white plastic cup into a red bucket, and then dump it into the sink. The new water heater has been delivered and very soon the plumber will sashay into the house, fantastically, and pull out his wrench and tighten all of the bolts, fasten all of the wires, and connect all of the pipes to provide House Fly with an endless flow of contaminated water, heavy with minerals and lead — because the Trenton Water Works board is heavy with cromagnons who don’t know the first thing about managing a water supply.
As I wait, the sounds of Glen Gray echo throughout the house and my fucking dogs bark, intermittently at random objects seen in the distance. Nothing today has encouraged me to make changes, so I’m sitting pat — on my hands, waiting for gold to bust loose higher — cracking jaws and spines clean off the bodies of bears.
This is a very simple thing to understand — even a moron can do it.
Markets are subservient to WTI. Presently, WTI is going lower, now down by 2%. This has caused slight weakness in the junk bond markets and of course stocks. Conversely, gold is firming. One cannot take a solid gold bar punch to the face and say it didn’t hurt.
Everything is too small for it to count. This is like taking the opinions of children, or millennials, seriously. The markets are flat. Basing an opinion off a flat bland nothing is more than stupid; bog standard it is cravenous!
As my trading account does nothing, my Quant is +35bps. How and why is it outperforming? Because it’s programmed to do so. Join Exodus you rotten louses and I will teach you.
For the first time in my son’s entire life — he took an interest in the stock market — texting me about some new free game that EA launched, dubbed Apex Legends. He said it was becoming more popular than Fortnite. He said, the stock might want to ‘barrel’ higher, even.
According to nerds, Apex is now at the top of Twitch viewing channels. For those unfamiliar, this is where nerds pay to see other nerds play video games and donate money to them to boot. Some of these nerds make millions of dollars via Twitch — an Amazon company.
Since its announcement and release on February 4, Apex Legends has consistently been on top of the Twitch viewing chart, drawing in numbers that have been way higher than Fortnite’s over that same time span.
Despite having over 600,000 less total hours streamed than Fortnite in the past seven days, Apex Legends incredibly has had almost 11 million more total hours watched.
Apex had an average viewership of 183,089 over that time, nearly 70,000 more than the 115,947 average viewer count of Fortnite.
As of three days ago, Apex had over 10 million downloads for the free game. This is significant because it smashed Fortnite’s record to pieces, accomplishing the feat in just 3 days — where it took the very now unpopular Fortnite two whole weeks to achieve.
Apex Legends, a game from Respawn Entertainment, is a free-to-play game, similar to Fortnite, the popular game that has rocked the traditional gaming industry this quarter.
Apex Legends’ quick traction shows some traditional players are beginning to catch up to the free-to-play, battle royale genre of gaming popularized by Fortnite.
A note from KeyBanc Capital Markets published Friday said it took Fortnite two weeks to gain 10 million players, though it said, “It’s unfair to compare the two, because the market for battle royale was clearly very different 12-18 months ago, but regardless,10M players is quite an accomplishment.”
Shares of EA are higher by 3.1% in the pre-market.
Important to note, I’m still without any water. We rented a hotel room last night just to shower warmly and were summarily rejected upon entering said shower — as the hotel water was initially cold. Upon receiving our most venomous complaints, the Hilton branded hotel fixed the issue and we all bathed warmly and with some fleeting dignity. I am here now, at home, eagerly awaiting a plumber to relieve me of my thirst and reinstate flowing water throughout the house.
Futures are sharply higher, +95, and gold is down. Not only is gold down, but so is oil.
It’s important to highlight what gold is doing now, for several reasons. The first and most important — we are tracing the top end of a 6 year resistance barrier.
The other is the demand coming out of foreign Central Banks for gold — record levels, dating back to 1967.
Governments added 651.5 tonnes (metric) of gold to their foreign exchange reserves in 2018, a 74 percent increase from the previous yea
This is a narrative I will be watching closely throughout 2019. In the meantime, stocks should break higher again this morning — but keep a close eye on oil. If oil starts downhill, the rally might wilt and wither away.
