Good morning Bear Shitter. I am here to tell you, you will lose a great deal of money today. Apparently, America added another 136,000 jobs today, sinking unemployment to 3.5%. While this might sound fantastic to you, the Third Estate, it’s rather milquetoast. As such, futures are soaring, +35 Nasdicks.
Unemployment hit a fresh 50-year low in September even though nonfarm payrolls rose by just 136,000 as the economy nears full employment, the Labor Department reported Friday.
The jobless rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, matching a level it last saw in December 1969. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed also fell, declining 0.3 percent points to 6.9%, matching its lowest in nearly 19 years and just off the all-time low of 6.8%.
Also, the jobless rate for Hispanics also hit a new record low while the level for African-Americans maintained its lowest ever.
At the same time, the economy saw another sluggish month of growth. The nonfarm payrolls count missed the 145,000 estimate from economists surveyed by Dow Jones; the expectation on the jobless rate was to hold steady at 3.7%.
Is it possible markets will fade this news and tank, making this article totally nonsensical rubbish? Absolutely, it happens all the time. But I like my fucking chances here, mate. I like the odds of me boxing in your face until my knuckles bleed.
Happy Friday!
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Based solely on these numbers, the Fed, IMHO, shouldn’t do anything in October. Cutting isn’t needed. Given the cut is already priced in, the Fed probably won’t rock the boat and cut anyway.
Wow! No fees! That’s a strong sign for retail-investor demand!
see my finger ppt
.6% .7% .8%
unduly pitiful ppt
see the finger?
Food for thought on the stock market:
Theorethically, stocks are priced based on all avaialble information (efficient market theroy). This measn two things:
1) stocks are fairly priced, and
2) stocks are just as likely to rise as fall,.
In reality, markets are actually priced less on fundamentasl, then on simple supply and demand created by investor sentiment, which is nearly alwasy bullish. This bullish sentiment has been driven by US historic returns over the last 35+ years. However, basing future projection siply based on past returns is foolish unless the macroeconmics are similar. To this end, there are two significant differences in todays environment:
1) We will not see another 35 years of falling interst rates.
2) The population is aging.
Both of these are negative for stocks in the long term.
Also, going back to investor sentiment, if investors are overwhelmingly optimisitc (ie, long stocks), then is is far likelier that stocks are overpriced most of the time.
The alst note on investor sentiment looks at generations. Baby boomers have a huge reason to be optimistic, as they greatly benffitted for falling interst rates. However, looking at younger investors, they have seen 1 or 2 huge bear markets. Even much of GenX has missed most of the 80s and 90s bull markets. This measn that the younger generatiosna are much more bearish. So baby boomers will liquidate their stocks, buying bonds and annuities (which both drive up the dmeand for Treasuries, BTW) adn sell int othe hands of pessimistic generations. This is also not good for stocks in the mid-term (5 years).
Baby boomers
I haven’t met many of those optimists of which you speak …and those that I have met tend to be younger professionals who have investments, but who were too young to have had 401Ks in 2007. Anyway, the Boomers (and everyone else) have been forced into stocks because the alternatives have been manipulated such that they are no longer seen as a decent option. Also, many simply want to own something real as they try to game-out what form the big reset will take …and they see stocks as more real (ownership of something), than is pure fiat.
“forced into” ->
long stocks ->
think stocks will go up ->
optimistic
0% is better than negative, and most boomers still have more than 50% of their portfolios in stocks, either directly or through mutual funds, target funds, etc.
As you said, this is what their investment advisors recommend, but that profession is full of leeches with little added value. Their goal is not absolute return for their clients, but just beating the market. They think clients should be happy with -15% returns if the S&P is down 20%. “Who coulda known?”
I got a piece of NFLX at ~271, but still waiting for SPY to close the Tuesday/Wednesday gap ($293.2).
– if it closes the gap, I’ll add to my SPY shorts
– if it doesn’t close the gap, that speaks volumes about the market and I’ll close out some of my other longs (already closed out MU as i think $44 is ceiling)
Also, I’ve been boosting TLT based on fundamentals, but for blacnce, can anyone spot any negative cahrt patterns/foramtions?
BUY GOLD
I’m shocked you would say such a thing.
Here’s my shocked face ?? ?
Fly needs to upgrade his site to allow the use of emojis.
Gold fundamentals: bearish
No inflation
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2019/08/08/gold-traders-get-ready-buy-lambos/#comment-562568
Gold technicals: bearish
Gold was blocked at an obvious resitance level created in 2011-2013. This is why I knew it would never reach $1600
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2019/08/14/happening-yield-curve-inverts-countdown-recession-starts-now/#comment-562745
It’s probably going to $1430
Spaceman, unless you or anyone else have anyone have anything new to add, such as a bullish chart pattern, new macroeconimcs ( infaltion, CB buyign gold), etc, I’m done talking sense into gold bugs and I’m just going to let you and Fly (quant account) bury yourselves in your golden coffins.