British Pound Pounded Again; Commerzbank Says Much Lower Prices Ahead

The pound is now off by 13% for the year. But do not worry, this is all good news.

Following the BREXIT vote and subsequent BOE action to perform fellatio on government bond yields, it should be of no surprise to anyone to see the pound hitting fresh lows.

Commerzbank is out with a note, suggesting 1.24 v the dollar is in the cards.

“GBP/USD remains under pressure following the recent break down from its triangle”.

‘This is bearish price action and given the prior sell off, the risks are on the downside for the next few weeks and the downside measured target from this triangle is 1.2415”.

“Initial support at 1.2944, the 78.6% retracement has been eroded and the focus is on the 1.2797/50 July low and Fibo. Intraday resistance lies 1.3055 and key resistance is now the top of the triangle at 1.3390”.

“Support at 1.2750/78.6% retracement of the move from 1985 to 2007 is regarded as the last defence for the 1.0463 1985 low”.

Pardon the technical trading jargon. The analysis was conducted by Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

It’s that time of year again folks. The Deacon of Death, aka hurricanes, are coming. A little fun fact for all of you Fly fans out there. Many years ago, when I lived in Staten Island, I once voluntarily evacuated my house after learning of a serious hurricane heading my way. That hurricane went on to destroy many parts of upstate New York and nearly killed Chronkite, iBC’s former news blogger. I drove all the way to central PA and lived in a hotel for a night. The fucking storm was so intense, even out there, the goddamned trees were falling down.

Fun times.

Now, in the area I live now, just out of Princeton, I get to enjoy the specter of power outages coupled with the basement flooding. As such, I have four sub pumps and a back up portable generator in case of emergency. I’ve been seen cranking up that loud bastard during deluges, connecting home appliances to large, spaghetti wire like power cords, while pouring gasoline into the fucker to keep it going.

That being said, present conditions dictate this year’s hurricane season is going to be a doozy. Where is Dr. Cane, ibc’s former weather blogger, when we need him?

The NOAA reports a 70% chance of 12 to 17 named storms, of which five to eight are expected to become hurricanes, including two to four major hurricanes.

This is an increase from the NOAA’s May outlook, which called for 10 to 16 named storms, of which four to eight were expected to become hurricanes, including one to four major hurricanes.

While a difference of one predicted major hurricane may not seem significant, as Hurricane Sandy proved, one major storm can take a catastrophic toll on life and property.

Obvious plays for the cane season include natural gas, oil and reconstruction companies. Also, generators will be all the rage. You might as well buy some GNRC as a hedge now.

While most of you were busy vacationing with sunscreen on your bottle noses, us bloggers have been slaving away on hot hot computers, chained to the desk in search of news and interesting things to talk about. It’s the neverending struggle that drives us to write the perfect story, with the perfect title, coupled with the best picture to embody our most inner thoughts. After we triumphantly publish our life changing posts, the audience draws crickets from a rusty olde bucket and tosses them at us, indifferent and wantonly unappreciative of our tireless efforts.

Fuck all of you.

Here is what the bloggers on my blogroll have been talking about this weekend. I took the liberty to completely change their titles, as I found them to be grossly inappropriate and lacking in the decorum department.

Zerohedge: I’m Not Saying Lehman, But Lehman

Daily Reckoning: ABANDON THE FUCKING ARK; ICEBERG AHEAD!

Ritholtz: Obama, Hillary and Merkel are Positively Adored Around the Globe, While People Hate and Despise The Devil Donald J. Trump

A Wealth of Common Sense: Afraid to Board the Ark? Bring Some Stocks with You

Calculated Risk: Hotels Are Kicking Ass

Mish Talk: The Bank of Japan is Out of Fucking Control

Prag Cap: Financial Advisors are Fucking Con Artists

Contra Corner: Here’s Why the Economy Blows and Will Continue to Blow Until the End of Time

Dollar Collapse: These Charts Will Prove, Without a Shadow of a Doubt, Rates Cannot Go Much Lower

Wolf Street: Six Years After the Volcker Rule, Goldman, JP Morgan and Others Would Like a ‘Grace Period’ to… Say… 2022!

Howard Lindzon: News Cannot Make Me Money or Become Smarter; Ergo, Donald Trump Sucks

Business Insider: $KORS is Struggling Because Their Models Are Ordinary White Bitches (KORS is +21% YTD)

ReCode: Some Asshole Named Jason CalcANUS Wants to Ban Anonymity on Twitter

VentureBeat: More Stupid Shit from Facebook

Washington Post: A Complete Useless Interview with Tim Cook, Commemorating Five Years of Boring Failure

What the fuck are they printing all of that money for, if they can’t even get the economy to grow at a 1% rate? This is utter horseshit. You know it. I know it. Abe and Kuroda knows it.

Gross domestic product expanded by an annualized 0.2 percent in the second quarter, less than the median estimate of economists for a 0.7 percent increase.

Business spending declined 0.4 percent from the previous three months (estimate +0.2 percent), according to the data released by the Cabinet Office on Monday.
Private consumption increased 0.2 percent over the same period (estimate +0.2 percent).

Net exports subtracted 0.3 percentage point from GDP.

In the meantime, the Bank of Japan are quite busy allocating upwards of $750 billion per annum towards the explicit manipulation of government and corporate yields, as well as stock prices–through their QE programmes. I suppose the ‘wealth effect’ of higher asset prices is helping someone, somewhere, namely underfunded pensions who rely on a rate of return. Or, maybe it helps the bankrupt government borrow money without having to deal with the annoyance of interest expense. Under this scheme, which is being duplicated around the world, big government gets to enjoy the grandeur of runaway fiscal budgets (extra Robber Baron), which funnels large expenditures into the private sector, through the rigging of interest rate–which permits this game of shadows to cast its spell upon markets–indefinitely.

Keep buying. Nothing unusual about this, at all.

What’s the point of modern amenities if we’re unable to use them? The heatwave in NYC is reaching extreme levels. The humidity levels are making it feel like 108 degrees outside, which is wreaking havoc on the Con ED power grid. My question is this: how is this fucking possible?

With a government sanctioned monopoly and free cash flow coming out the wazoo, this disgraceful company continues to cut corners and leave its paying residents exposed to problems readily deemed routine in the 19th century.

Consolidated Edison Inc. is asking New Yorkers to use fans instead of air conditioning as it struggles with electrical problems in several areas after demand reached a weekend record of 11,855 megawatts on Saturday.

The National Weather Service suggests ignoring the dangerous advice given by the fucking caitiffs at Con ED.

The National Weather Service, which put New York and other areas across the northeastern U.S. on an excessive-heat warning, has a different message.

“Use air conditioning to stay cool at home or go to a place that has air conditioning,” the weather service said in a warning to New Yorkers on its website. “Check on vulnerable friends, family members and neighbors.”

What’s the point of a greedy fucking monopoly ripping off its customers with absurd rates if they can’t even provide basic, life saving, service?

In response to a NY Times article, which painted a picture of a boyishly chaotic, helicopter buzzing, Trump candidacy in shambles, holding secret meetings in an effort to recapture the favor of blatantly rigged polls–Trump went fucking nuclear.

Additionally, he pointed out how his candidacy was more against the ‘crooked media’ instead of ‘crooked Hillary.’ Lastly, he threatened to revoke the credentials for the NY Times because of their fiction laden reporting. If elected, I wonder how that would affect the shareholders of NYT?

Full speech.

Happy Sunday in America.

Blacks hunting down whites in streets of #Milwaukee, the true racists revealed #MilwaukeeUprising #BlackLivesMatter pic.twitter.com/OVs2Y65WeY

— Trent B (@Trentsickle) August 14, 2016

This is embarrassing. #Milwaukee pic.twitter.com/It1wkX7eTZ

— Charter (@hoodsonco) August 14, 2016

I am sure futures will jump on reconstruction prospects.

ZH has the full scoop.

I have a good friend of mine who works in this shadow credit industry. Essentially, they lend large sums of money to people or corporations with poor creditworthiness. The people they lend to need the money to stay in business or to make investments. Because the capital markets are closed to them, just like ordinary folks using their 38% credit card at the mall, they accept very high yields and nervous terms in order to get access.

My friend started this business in 2008 after the world blew up. It was an easier environment for him then. The crazy part about this IMF research note, speaking to China’s insanely large shadow banking system, is that it comes at a time when things are supposed to be dreamy.

Make no mistake, this isn’t a positive note when discussing China’s credit situation, especially when taking into consideration their growing NPL problem.

International Monetary Fund staff said that 19 trillion yuan ($2.9 trillion) of Chinese “shadow” credit products are high-risk compared with corporate loans and highlighted the danger that defaults could lead to liquidity shocks.

The investment products are structured by the likes of trust and securities companies and based on equities or on debt — typically loans — that isn’t traded, staff members John Caparusso and Kai Yan said in a report released Friday.

The commentary highlighted the potential for risks bigger to the nation’s financial stability than from companies’ loan defaults. While loan losses can be realized gradually, defaults on the shadow products could trigger risk aversion that’s harder to manage, the report said.

The “high-risk” products offer yields of 11 percent to 14 percent, compared with 6 percent on loans and 3 percent to 4 percent on bonds, the commentary said. The lowest-quality of these products are based on “nonstandard credit assets,” typically loans, it said.

In a separate document in a bundle released by the IMF, the Chinese banking regulator was cited as saying that banks’ exposures to “nonstandard credit assets” were a key concern, with moves already made to require higher provisioning against such exposures than for regular loans.

With today’s retail sales in the dumps, investment banks and the Atlanta Fed scrambled to cut their growth projections for the U.S. economy for the third quarter. Just last week, all of the fucktards at CNBC were sucking each other’s dicks, elated by a seemingly runaway +4% growth rate, which has now dissolved into nothing at all.

It’s like a snowman at the beach in the middle of August.

As such, Morgan Stanley slashed estimates by an astounding 50bps today to 1.9%, which may still be optimistic, given that every aspect of the economy, aside from retail sales, shrunk in Q2.

The Atlanta Fed, however, is far more optimistic at 3.5%. They just slashed their estimates too, but it’s a whole 1.6% higher than Morgan’s models.

One of these models is forged together by complete idiots. Time will tell who get the L.

Ladies and gentlemen,

You’ve survived yet another week of a rigged market in a sinking economy. But that’s just curmudgeon Fly lashing out at the world. If you knew my perspective and understood what seems very clear to me, you’d lock yourselves in the basement, surviving only on a steady diet of saltine crackers and re-purposed water.

Not everyone is as grim as I am these days, which makes a market, naturally. Although I’ve done well in TLT and some of the other trades I’ve take this year, such as my current short in FCX, others have done better. One of them is my right hand man, The Option Addict.

It’s time for all of you to sign up for his boot camp and understand his methods that have resulted in a winship rate bordering on the paranormal.

Aside from that, have a great weekend and try not to inebriate yourselves to the point of personal embarrassment and humiliation.