I’m a big believer in “peaks and valleys” and how people ebb and flow through them. Adversity is dealing with the valleys. How one responds to some hard times defines who that person is, not the bad habits picked up during periods of excess.
We are bound to make mistakes at the top of any tape, because things feel so good. It’s hard being a contrarian all the time. Eventually, we all want to “fit in” and conform to what’s working now. I truly respect those who stick to their disciplines, especially when said disciplines force you to miss out on epic rallies.
Value investors must be dying now, watching people like me bank coin in cartoonish fashion. I am sure they justify their style as being able to “last the test of time.” They assume guys like me “come and go” and will “blow up” on the next down cycle. Maybe if I was an ideologue, that would be true. But I am not. I am malleable, mistrusting, and generally belligerent towards traveling with the herd.
Even though I am banking a criminal amount of coin in GOGO, it was a contrarian play. No one was buying it when I took down a position. Now it’s the hot stock to watch. The same goes with IMMR. Who is buying it? No one–but they will soon.
Who was buying YELP when I bought it? How about my other core position, POWI? Most people haven’t even heard of that stock.
I like to profile stocks and anticipate when they will get hot, in advance of the crowd. That is where I make the bulk of my returns, guessing correctly. Aside from that, I utilize the tools that are available to me to properly screen for these ideas. This is an ongoing process and I don’t want to preach to you now, obnoxiously, just because I am on a bit of a run here. We all know I will eventually blow up, in spectacular fashion, forcing me to fight hard to get back what I lost.
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“Cartoonish”
I was thinking of that word about an hour ago regarding this market. A bit of humility is good at this point in time.
I just don’t think we trade down yet. But no one ever lost money booking gains.
The most successful contrarians are with the trend 80% of the time.
(I heard some notable contrarian say that one time…)
makes sense. Reminds me of a poker addage “If you aren’t getting caught bluffing you aren’t bluffing enough”. The Contrarian will probably be early 50% of the time in building initial position and late 50% of the time on the bottom 20% of the move and the same 20% on the tops of either building a short and/or reducing their position.
That puts them with the trend 80%, long and wrong/early 10%, short/cash and wrong/early 10%. Not sure about the exact numbers of course, but same philosophy, just a different way of looking at it.
adage** A game!
Drunkenmiller is saying that it appears to be topping. I will be glad when all of this is over….Clam made a big mess of things.
What is your opinion on ENT vs GOGO? Seems like ENT has better technology with satellite provided internet?
Druckenmiller has been wrong for a long time – Tepper has been beating his ass the past few years
He was totally right on the Aussie. Both, like everyone, is just watching the Central Banks…nothing to do with value, just how much the Central Banks can push into the System. When that ends…so does this bubble they created. Tepper just thinks the Central Banks can last longer. I see the German Ct stopping/slowing ECB, Japan is getting light on the arrows, US is in taper mode with Ben B going and Larry coming. RBA may cut again after that miss on employment numbers last night, and BoE that has been a bit more hawkish is getting better data so why should they add to QE. No QE and this place gets ugly fast.
Ent is an ant
thank you for the reality check. Today was easy to beat on the chest after the big gogo run-up.
Nice work on GOGO, SAM in effect.
My reservation with IMMR is that their technology appears very basic. It looks like it’s just a framework to make it easier to add device vibration to your app/game. While that’s convenient, you can achieve the same effects without their help.