iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,441 Blog Posts

A Very High Probability Trade is Here

Unbelievably depressing housing numbers!

How can the Fed back off with numbers like this? I think it’s fair to say, we’re addicted to cheap money and fast drugs. Nonetheless, we’re bouncing here, with stocks stretching out their legs–looking for another run higher.

I want to show you something. Yesterday, The PPT registered its lowest Overall Hybrid score since 2011. The score was so low, it gave me memories of the good old days of 2009 and 2010, when the oversold signal made me 900% on my money, playing triple inverse ETFs and options.

Here are all scores, life to date, under 2.40, affixed to a chart of the SPY.

ppt2

This is a very high probability trade, as far as I’m concerned. I did raise a little cash yesterday, selling out of the rest of my DDD position. I am eager to invest the money into something on the move higher.

In other news, there’s been an overwhelming response to After Hour’s with The Option Addict. Today is the last day of the free trial. If you want to know his methods and how to use them in the options market, don’t miss today’s show.

Because of your response, I will extend the 15% discount on membership until 5pm today. Do not ever say Le Fly isn’t generous.

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22 comments

  1. bugatti

    Any fall discounts or trials on PPT?

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  2. gatorsun

    JCP…too cheap not to get some 12.90

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  3. Schizo168

    15% discount only ? Come on buddy.. Make that 50% and ill join instantly

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  4. Bullish

    I heard Davian is selling his subscriptions at 20% off. Only if you wire money today!!

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  5. Bill Ackman

    Nah Fly, I’m afraid that you are wrong. I’m Short!

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  6. Winthorpe

    Jim Cramer says no hurry to buy, wait till after Syria gets bombed.

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    • The Fly

      War is good for stocks.

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      • Ze_Invest0r

        ok krugman

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      • Weirdo Jay

        http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/02/debunking-the-myth-that-war-is-good-for-the-economy-once-and-for-all.html

        I think it depends upon your time horizon and the ultimate “result” and who is involved in the war and who specifically gains at the other’s expense.

        War has bankrupted commodity businesses even when the economy was mostly agrarian and commodity based such as Jonathan Armour who supplied Allies commodities during world war 1 and lost $1B a day inflation adjusted in 1919 only a year after the war ended until he was impoverished and ultimately died broke. Of course he made a fortune before losing it.

        Spending money to rebuild what was destroyed is only money that could have been spent on other consumable products and infrustructure if the destruction had not taken place. Strategic war plans often call for bombing out supplies, food, and poisoning water sources which can bankrupt nations or lead to hyperinflation. Of course, hyperinflation is good for stocks, but only at the expense of the currency, rather than economic growth, and which long term doesn’t add value in any way. There will be less to go around overall after a war, so even if you do have a larger share of that wealth it’s irrelevant as 100% of the world buys a lot less than before the war, so does 1%.

        War disrupts shifts in capital and may be good for one nation at the expense of another. The US was largely neutral over most of world war 2, yet still received inflows of capital from Europe.

        Supporting communist revolutionary governments like German did with the Bolsheviks until no one wants to buy their bonds can ultimately force a country into hyperinflation, and since there will be no bond buyers default and/or hyperinflation is the only option especially for non-core economies.

        It also puts nations into debt which can be good for long periods of time, until a large percentage of the bond holders by which the debt is paid are foreign (to which that money may never return), and ultimately cause the governments to owe more than they have. War can result in a temporary boost in war bonds and treasuries, but it also distorts the demographics of society (as generally the youth end up dieing), and increases the burden of unfunded liabilities and ability to pay them.

        War can increase costs of goods, but may not necessarily increase margins. War can decrease population and result in more wealth per person available, but can also destroy the means of production, increase the cost of labor, and increase the burden of debt which can increase taxes in the future and decrease the means by which people have to spend capital on goods and services. the cold war ending was most certainly good for stocks and the talk of a “peace dividend” is just about as relevant as saying world war 2 (which the US was mostly on the sideline for) got the US out of a depression. It most certainly is a wildcard, who’s effects are complex and may have some seriously negative side effects as well.

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  7. Bill Ackman

    Carl Icahn – I want 3 seats on your board-Buy JC Penny? Surely its worth more than $2.84 billion with a good management in place.

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    • gatorsun

      it would be hilarious if Carl “screw you” Icahn loaded up on JCP….Just for laughs

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  8. The Fly

    Here is The After Hours blog

    http://ibankcoin.com/afterhours/

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  9. gatorsun

    IMMR sweetness

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  10. JTU

    Hearing Unconfirmed Market Chatter of Lenovo $17/Share Bid for BlackBerry
    Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/news/13/08/3871321/hearing-unconfirmed-market-chatter-of-lenovo-17share-bid-for-blackberry?source=email_rt_mc_body&app=n#ixzz2dHWnPVR5

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  11. JTU

    If the market holds it’s gains today, I’ve almost made up yesterday’s losses!

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  12. gatorsun

    Z gave ya an entry if its your thing…i’m going for 100

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  13. Narwhal

    We are addicted to fast cash and cheap, ugly women.

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