I’m not even going to acknowledge this morning’s euro/yen/dollar action and get sucked into a conversation about topping out markets. The market will never “top out” because we only go higher.
Thus far this month, the S&P 500 is +3.2%– almost matching last year’s +4.6% return. In 2011 we were up +2.33% in January, which snapped a 3 year losing streak for the first month of the new year.
Providing the market can sustain a gain in January, typically it’s a very good omen for the markets.
Since 2011, here is what the market has done from Feb-May.
2011
Feb
+3.47%
March
+0.02%
April
+2.9%
May
-1.13%
2012
Feb
+4.34%
March
+3.22%
April
-0.66%
May
-6.0%
As you can see, based upon recent history (I promise you older history looks the same), the market is in for some smooth sailing until late March. You fine gentlemen can take your glasses of Basil Hayden and head over to the hammock for a little R&R until then. There is nothing that can derail this market, not even self-inflicted, purposeful and an utterly childish national default.
Even though the GOP wants to destroy the credit of the United Steaks, they still love the country in the same manner that an African Black Eagle loves its discarded young (if you don’t know, you don’t know).
I will not entertain any ideas from the reading class on this site. Please cease and desist offering advice of the financial nature until the month of April.
Thank You.
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Huzzah, Sir.
Yikes, we really are at a top.
EXACTLY.
Typically, one would read something like this and say “OMG we are soooo topping out because Fly just said we are going up until April.” But anyone who would say such a thing is A. homosexual and B. doesn’t know his history.
Look pal, the United States defeated Nazi Germany and the market tends to go up until April. Don’t ignore the lessons of history.
LOL, well reasoned sir. Certainly more so than Mr. Demark and his little doodles.
Here’s another stat for your book.
On average, the market goes up 1.7% in the year after the election.
I enjoy watching Penn and Teller’s “Bullshit” the same way I enjoy this site… the same way I enjoy fresh air.
holy shit the vxx is up, time to short it haha
I enjoy banning you.
URA step by step … CCJ largest position in trading portfolio….
Strong like a bull!
PMs … gold miners might be bottoming here
I hope so, got a boat load of ’em.
reading class = steerage
TLDR
My financial advice is, “get your taxes done on time.” But I prolly will not follow my own advice.
Sold VHC @ 34.50
Basil Hayden is my favorite bourbon.
Fly, I appreciate the Basil Hayden callout. Unlikely known around these parts is he was the University of Kentucky’s first All-American hoopster (as they called them back then). Lived in my hometown, Paris, where in his mid-80’s he married a gal who was (only) in her 60’s.
Unfortunately never met him, but a ngreat man, I am told.
Cheers to Mr. Hayden. Sip away. folks.