I lost so much money today I can’t feel my fucking face and my eyes are bleeding. All day I had to deal with the absurdity of being right about the market going down, yet long stocks. Not only am I long stocks, I am heavily weighted toward precious metals, the very bane of this cocksucking market.
Don’t go there. Don’t step onto the stage claiming you saw this coming and timed your shorts perfectly. You same clowns got Ape-Raped three weeks ago and you will be violated again, and soon.
Let’s cut to the chase. I sold out of my aggressive-personal account because I’m about to throw a Hail Mary. Into this sell off extravaganza, I intend to take a long bet through options–all or none. For managed accounts, I sold out of that bitch of a whore OMX and USG. I might start buying WNR again down here, especially if crack spreads stabilize. Remember, WNR is 35% hedged @27. Cracks are now under $15. They stand to make a great deal of money on their hedges.
My wife handed me some crystal today. It’s supposed to make me feel better and make me lucky. I took that shit and turned it into dust. I will now snort that dust and see how lucky it makes me.
The rest of you financial bloggers out there talking shit can burn in hell, or 0hio, for all I care. Very few of you have skin in the game, managing bullshit “virtual funds”, making cow-eyed proclamations on CNBC. Speaking of cow eyes, Cramer is looking for every single bank in Europe to collapse, wiping out both equity and bondholders to the tune of (get this!) 10 fucking trillion. Yet, at the same time the dust bowls materialize in Brussels, THE SHARES OF MORGAN STANLEY ARE JUST FINE!
Let me warn you: there is no coming back from a 10 Trilly loss. That’s the sort of shit that wipes out ALL bank accounts, globally. Civilization as we know it would end. Your homosexual FAZ positions will be worthless when you have an ax wedged into the exact center of your skull.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REQ5V2BNjz8
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Seriously, thank you. That’s like the GDP of the United States. Fucking Cramer.
I feel your rage.Mark Cuban said it best. Market is a platform for hackers to raise cash. I was Short BAC and the options moved 2 cents. Punted
what sort of options bet are you making?
Wnr announced (accoridng to benzonga) retiring of all senior floating rate notes. According to 10q they had about 260m of frn’s at quarter end.
meaning?? I get the hedge..but how does retiring all senior notes effect their Q4??
More EPS??
Not much effect on Q4. But it helps their balance sheet. They will be less levered. The cash they brought in will pay down debt. There was some timing issue that made waiting until Dec beneficial. Pre-payment penalty or something similar.
If they’re retiring the debt, they aren’t taking in new money.
In this environment, that’s the equivalent of gambling on a rate hike…probably. Depends on the exact terms of the floating rate.
cain – saw something along the lines of paying 10.75%. firm is getting their finances in order, which is a positive. i wouldve liked to see them retire the fixed instead, but this is a nice step going forward.
dont have a perfect analysis of the firm, but this makes bankruptcy less likely
please let us know when u take ur all-in long bet…i intend to follow you into the fires of mordor
Could not make it work for me today. I appreciate your post. Thanks for sharing.
>> They stand to make a great deal of money on their hedges.
Unless they put their hedges on via MF Global, in which case all their profit and collateral has been stolen.
lol.
Corzine is smoking a cigar now, reading this.
I hope Corzine is smoking one of these.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-_vg3wwYEI
I’m jealous. I wish I was well-connected enough to steal a couple billion from segregated accounts with impunity!
Seriously though, are you worried about counterparty risk?
If the SIPC, FINRA, SEC, CME, CFTC, internal and external auditors, and MF’s counterparties were all totally oblivious to giant sums of money disappearing from segregated accounts, how can one be sure that any assets anywhere are safe?
Ax to the skull? How about this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dG9ciFytP8A&feature=related
Options/Futures = Leverage = Financial engineering
1 dollar controlling X amount of dollars is what got us into this mess in the first place.
Leverage is why you have am Iphone. It’s why you have a job. It’s how the system runs. Do you have a better idea that doesn’t move our civilization backwards?
Breaking: Super Duper Committee deal….
…dead.
No worries. Tomorrow, everyone will pump this mutha up a few hundred on the DOW. We will forget about the EURO trash and comment on slow growth, great earnings, and kick ass turkey. By Friday, back to EURO worries mahem. Pretty simple.
a year and a half ago I realized I wasn’t able to dedicate enough time to be successful picking stocks.
I decided to stop trading and start using diversified dollar-cost averaging and re-balancing. Any time the market goes down, I get paper losses, but know that the next time I buy a chunk of equities I’ll be buying at a discount. I’ve been around 95% long for the whole time, and right now I’m up 12% for the year.
It’s been extraordinarily stress-free and takes up about 30 minutes of my time each month. I’m able to focus on work, and lose sleep over that, instead of my portfolio.
And how often do you re-balance? Daily? Monthly? When the market drops one tenth of one percent in a day? ONE percent?
In what: Stocks, indices, options? If stocks, WHICH stocks?
In short, I am calling BS unless you answer the above questions.
I buy in blocks of $3000, which means I buy something every other month. I rebalance by buying the equity that’s the furthest below its percent goal once I have $3000 saved up.
For example, right now my account is 12.5% SPY. My goal is to keep SPY at 16%. That’s the largest percentage split in my portfolio, so I’ll buy some of that next.
I’m overweight on NAESX, with 7.8% instead of my goal of 4%. Instead of selling and creating a taxable event, I’ll wait for added funds to dilute.
Here are my positions and their corresponding weights in my ideal portfolio:
Domestic large market: SPY (16%)
Domestic small market: NAESX (4%)
Domestic large value: VTV (20%)
Domestic small value: VISVX (12%)
Domestic REITs:VGSIX (8%)
Int’l: VWO (17.6)<—This will be broken up into Asia, Europe, Value, and Emerging soon
Commodities: GLD (2.4%)
Corporate Bonds: USHYX (12%)
Gov't Bonds: TIPS (8%)
These are all very low cost index funds and ETFs. I have money set aside for "fun" trades.
Are you accounting for the presence of new money in your accounts, or are you just taking your present net value, dividing it by the net value of your account from a year and a half ago, and calling it good?
My 12% is the current value minus net cash additions divided by the starting value; i’m not sure how to make a better estimate besides that. Obviously this figure would become more skewed after one year, so it’s probably not very useful beyond that timeframe.
Is there a smarter way to determine your “true” yearly return?
Shit, I should have come back here a while ago. Your method is biased, Hammy, because you get the returns on the new money against your principle. Depending on the size of your holding, you could have a massive skewing of unrealistic performance.
You need to filter out your net capital additions AND returns that were made on those additions.
Think of it like this; you have $10,000 and buy a bond for 1%. Then you add $100,000 at 1%. You make 1% on your total investments, but your return is $11,000; filtering out the $100,000 gives you $21,000.
WOOHOO! Nice 110% gain.
This is obviously an extreme example, but you get the idea; really your performance is only the 1%.
Thank you for the info. I am now un-calling
“BS” and I think you plan has merit, except
if we get into a severe and lengthy bear market like August 2008 to March 2009.
I wouldn’t mind a long bear market; i’m going to be spending $3000 per month no matter what the prices are, so lower would be nicer for me in the long run. I’m not taking this money out any time soon.
Hammy – Nice job. I’ve used similar strategies in the past. Depending on the market, the returns are juicy without a lot of angst.
Nice to see you back here.
Thanks!
What happened to The Fly that used to push the trend? Please come back!
What trend? Every other week it’s either feast or famine.
Beware monthly metals option expiration (TOMORROW). The market always drops starting the week before expiration due to the desire for those holding for physical delivery to roll at a smaller premium.
Many of those in futures markets for metals lost their positions with the MF Global hit. Since the capital has been wiped out it can’t support precious metals prices. Run on, and I don’t mean sentences.
If there is anything that really burns my ass it’s when Herr Blogmeister mentions and quotes Cramer. If you think about it, Cramer is NOT a fucking financial savant, he is not funny, not amusing, he is simply a shrimpy unattractive narcissist with a whiny message.
In my best winey [sic] yet screaming Cramer voice: “THEY KNOW NOTHING! THEY KNOW NOTHING!”
#Armageddon 2012
spoke with someone today. their uncle tried to withdraw some cash fom ITA credit union, and he was told no – amount was 1000 EUR.
Probably because he didn’t have that much in his account…
LOL
LOL
I think those 2012 lunatics have it all wrong. It will be the end of the *financial* world as we know it, not the real world.
what, there’s a difference?
“I’m about to throw a Hail Mary. Into this sell off extravaganza, I intend to take a long bet through options–all or none.”
Now that’s ballzy.
Fly, now that we are out, where on earth did the OMX trade come from?
i feel your rage alright, fuck options
Dear Fly: Have faith. The Turkey Gods may still show up.
Keep an eye on VGK and IXG
Global banks, and euro equities are the most important fulcrums in this market
The bears had weeks to kill that giant bullish “complex inverse head and shoulders” in VGK . Now, it has formed a textbook perfect bullish descending wedge.
Those same wedges are present in most major stocks, and sectors btw ( on daily charts)
Yes , fundamentals are horrible. But, those patterns are damn clear. If they balance out, we should get a bounce to ES 1240 this week.
And then, chop, or more down
As I’ve been saying for months, now is the time to do The Hugh, not The Gint. We are on the precipice of a deflationary vortex, not some hyperinflationary barrel of cash carrying environment (NOGint)
1.2 trillion in “cuts” over 10 years against baseline spending is laughable. Spending is up almost 30% under this administration. There is no way to balance the budget, muchless pay down the debt, without cutting defense, Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid.
Refusing to really balance spending/revenues guarantees devaluation of our currency. Who knows how the market will play out.
I banked a little coin today, but the options were getting manipulated like I have never, ever seen.
That is one screwed up racket.
I went to cash an hour before the close, but really felt like getting long at the close.
We shall see if that was good or bad manana.
they suck the life out of options holders now.i am not an options “expert” per-se but i started in options before i went into stocks and study options chains vigorously,i’m sorry i got back into them a few months ago,they get “harvested” too. buy a leap in a company that is flush with cash and no debt…….no problem will fuck you too.in and out in the same day,down and dirty or the bag of shit gets dumped on you, if, on the second day the same trend is playing,buy it back then dump on same day. it’s like decay means nothing anymore,the way all stock prices gyrate fiercely as of late the value of the strike is demolished so bad, that decay does’nt even come into the picture.then the spreads,etc etc.all is fair in money rape i guess……..
I wonder what Jake thinks Fly, but my gut says this is a major PM head fake.
In fact, it might be doing the “pull back” as a last time buy physical “convos” get going over the turkey… I mean hot dogs and brats.
This is pretty funny.
A Russian news anchor is reading about 0bama in the Far East and flips him the “bird” on the air. I guess she is not a fan of The 0ne.
http://youtu.be/E7jKKZTpzh4
LOVE THIS LOL
may be CNN and others should do the same as they mention his name
Now that’s a great clip.
You know HOBOama’s a card carrying commie when an ex-commie Russian does this.
BTW: Russia rules.
Whoa…Why no love for O-H-I-O?
Go Zips!
Short SFLY…I actually got this idea from your “high Flyers” post a few days ago!It goes to $10.. Fuck CRM too!
I feel your pain. My ears started bleeding. Not because of the losses but because I rolled down the window on my way home from work and I heard “fuck you John Kerry!!!!!!!!!!!! Fuck you and your damn insider trading!”
Was that you?
FWIW over the last three years a bounce from today’s close on the SPX are 88 percent (buy todays close, sell on tomorrows close
Yea, there’s was buying into the close on ES futures. I think alot of traders are expecting this also.
@KCScott….agreed, it will happen and then sell the shit out of it!
Some say ROI is an important # in the investment decision process. I found an org. I support has a mind-blowing ROI. For every 1$ received $9 in food value is distributed to hungry deserving families by Second Harvest Food Bank of Central Florida. Am I nuts or isn’t $100 spent there a lot better return on investment than $100 in NFLX?
“My wife handed me some crystal today. It’s supposed to make me feel better and make me lucky. I took that shit and turned it into dust. I will now snort that dust and see how lucky it makes me.”
Legendary stuff
Better to be a Pats fan than a Giants fan at this point in the schedule … I’ll leave you the Daily OEW Recap as I prepare for a win (No Rex Ryan) ….
“Today’s decline took the market into the upper range of the OEW 1168, 1176, 1187 pivot cluster. The decline also stopped at the 50% retracement level (SPX 1184) of the 1075-1293 uptrend. Should our short term bullish count be correct, the market should now rally somewhat to complete a Minute wave iv, and then decline into the OEW pivot cluster again to complete the correction.”
“Short term support remains in the 1168, 1176, 1187 cluster, with resistance now in the upper 1190s, 1209 and then the 1222 pivots.”
Too late for Longs to sell or go short but Shorts should consider profit taking if you have some shortly ….
is that asshat cramer still recommending Banco Santander?
enjoy losing more of your money.
Once again Market is is barely off its all time highs of 2007 and no fundamentals support this except a bubble. Keep buying into the pump, meanwhile all the hedge funds like Barton Biggs got out last week.
Made a shitload of coin shorting financials, euro, and materials this week. I don’t believe in always being long. In fact switching bearish in August gave me such a large return I am now above my 2007 levels by a solid 24%.
Go bearish and catch some salmon until things get better. If they ever do that is.
Fantasticly written post, only when all blog owners offered a similar information just like you, the net will be a far better place.