I missed this two week correction, holding stocks like a true permabull. While it’s true, there were numerous signs out there, telling me to protect myself, I chose to ignore them and “stay the course.” While many of you 4 figure accounters out there will claim victory of some sort, while throwing meatloaf at the people who are long, just know you are nothing more than fodder for my backyard cannons.
For those of you who were hurt this week, don’t let it mess with your confidence. You lost money, big fucking deal. You took a shot, believing the Fed would splash some magic dust on the market, like they have done over and over again, for the past three years. The high probability play was to buy the dip and it failed. Here we are, down for 6 consecutive weeks, and people are clamoring for some sort of surprise crash.
That sort of shit is not supposed to happen, following a horrendous crash in ’08. In other words, while anything is possible, it’s a very low probability play. We haven’t seen this type of “broken elevator” action since 2002, when the world as we knew it was fucked. Well, I guess one could make an argument that the world is worse off now. However, all of the facts available to us now have been known for sometime, sans that barbaric +54k jobs number.
We are not used to market corrections, since we’ve been spoiled by cheap money for so long. Ladies and idiots, this is a correction, nothing more, nothing less. We could drop 10% from the highs, or even 20%. That does not mean we are in a bear market. On the brains of Santa Claus, shut the fuck up already. No one cares about your opinions. Do you think your comments affect my decision making? Moreover, do you have a monopoly on market strategy? If so, I suggest you take your billion dollar skills to a hedge fund attorney and set up shop.
When you come to iBankCoin, specifically my blog, come dressed to impress and do not behave like an unwashed working class animal. Feel free to talk amongst each other and never disrespect the host. It is simply rude, unbecoming, and will not be tolerated as long the “The Fly” rules this domain.
Feel free to drink excessively, eat like a caveman, and forget about stocks for a few days. See you fuckers on Monday.
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All your points are valid and probably correct, except that we are far more fucked up than in 2002, IMHO….
Don’t you remember 2002? Wars, dot com crash, economy is freefall.
off the cuff.. housing,unemployment,record state and federal deficits, and a socialist in the White House
It cracks me up when you people distinguish between the socialist Obama (wars and transfer payments to rich and poor) and GWB (wars and transfer payments to the rich) as if Bush were the paragon of free markets.
Damn, there are still so many Bammer supporters on this site (check the red thumb action), its amazing!
LOL. Do you people know how the businesses you are investing in even WORK??
__________
Diary of a bullshitter (part deux): No, the banks are fine! Bear Stearns is fine! Pets.com is fine!
one thing is for sure, you do not know asshat
Discount the future Scott, the O man will be voted out. in 2012..A return to capitalism, new innovations and apple pie.
It’s a long hard road to January 2013, and in the mean time, you’ve got Obama’s EPA destroying the coal and electric utility industries, the domestic earl bidness and who knows what else. You’ve got his FCC mandating what kind of internet access everyone shall have, his Obamacare Panels mandating what kind of care everyone can have, and at what supply and price, and oh, there’s still three wars and a debt ceiling we have to deal with… trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see.
And here’s the real thing that’s scaring the market — the GOP can’t get a decent guy to run. It’s RINO-ville all over again!
(McCauley Culkin double face slap)
_________________________
tool.
closet marxist.
Nothing “closet” about Lungsac.
_____________
Do you not realize that Ron Paul is running?
I have as much chance of being elected as Ron Paul.
Yes Mr Pimp, if you are incorruptible, speak only the truth, have a true understanding of economics, a sane foreign policy and impeccable morals then you probably can’t get elected by are incredibly ignorant, arrogant, selfish, failing society that will elect yet one more in a long line of puppets dating back to hoover who serve not we the people but the elitist interests.
A guy who does not respect American capitalism and business cannot be relied upon to nurture it.
Why don’t you run Mr Gint? You seem to know everything…
How do you know I’m not, asshat?
___________
the majority of participants lost coin the last few weeks,myself included.but its not the end of the world.
true that was last month on the 26th
Can we make some money next week? This is starting to suck.
I think our kids/grandkids are porked but there are miles to go before we sleep. Who does deflation injure – those who have assets (think rich and powerfull). Who does inflation injure- those who own very little (think most folks). If you think the powers that be will not inflate, you are wrong. If you take a look at the Kraut market in Weimar you will see it went up a gazillion because stocks represented ownership of stuff that was real,not paper (mines, land, means of production). Like the Fly sayeth – chill and wait for the next upturn. It is inevitable.
Screw the kids and grandkids. They are spoiled and have a sense of entitlement that knows no bounds. If they had to work like our parents and grandparents, they wouldn’t know what hit ’em! Oh gee….the little darlins’ might not get their new pair of Nike’s or their 3rd Ipad.
Deflation injures people with a lot of debt. Inflation gets them out of it. You pay back with cheaper dollars.
wrong. deflation benefits creditors and harms debtors because in deflationary environment debts are payed back in an appreciating currency. inflation is the opposite, benefits debtors at the expense of creditors since debts are payed back in depreciating currency.
so US deflation in this case would most benefit the Chicoms who hold vast amounts of our debts and dollar reserves and would most hurt the middle class that pays the bulk of taxes as they would be paying back the Chicoms in appreciating dollars. Inflation would do the opposite. Ever wonder why the Chicoms were so pissed off about QE2?
So, if we want our policies to benefit China at the expense of the US taxpayer than by all means lets crushing deflation and massive unemployment with the return of King Dollar.
Thank you. One of the greatest pieces you have ever put on your site.
I’m still up 215% in 2 yrs, which is really not all that good. I was up 237%.
I feel for you. You couldn’t have slept well after those massive losses.
Fly- what ever happened to the copper trade? Lots of anal-ysts keep touting FCX as being “very cheap”. I don’t think you own it, what’s your take on it? Also, what’s your target for ATPG? Thanks!
I haven’t looked at copper in awhile. Will take a look Sunday.
If shorting is no good why not just sit in cash until a clear uptrend is re-established?
That’s fine.
I HAD THE LAST WALTZ WITH YOU
fabian Share Friday, June 10, 2011 1:22:17 PM
Re: None Post # of 678350
Market-Very close to a short term “tradeable” bottom IOHO. Today might even be it.
MACDS still heading swiftly solidly South and IBD on “No Go”, so most swingers would be wise to not get all heroic.
Doesn’t keep us from a timing opinion though.
If correct on the turn, no opinion just yet on how high the bounce would take the market.
There are headwinds in front of a sustained upmove.
QE2’s soon sputtering to a stop.
Those Politico’s will play brinkmanship with the Debt Ceiling deadline early Aug. and the market is not fond of that uncertainty.
Also, it’s not a robust time of yr. for stocks generally.
But 6 weeks down in a row, Equity PC in great shape finally. AAII’s-less than 25% bulls, nearly twice that many are sour and the balance confused.
That should about do it for this leg of the decline.
We’ll say the bottoms today with an allowable window of Monday-Tue.
…
Fabian
Hey Fly,
Great job over the last couple of years!
I always understood you to believe the markets and economy were hosed and that the markets were just in a liquidity rally that you would play with to huge profits.
That being said, do you feel that things will eventually get bad (i.e. down 25% plus) sometime in the next couple of years?
Thanks
JB
Yes. I believe the current system is unsustainable. I just don’t see how now is the tipping point.
Fly
QE could very well be the tipping point although Europe will blow first.
Just look at the 10 year if u wanna get spooked. Bond traders are piling in as the fed ENDS QE. That tells me they are scared shitless and that spooks me because bond traders run circles around stock traders.
I think we keep diving as we head towards the end of June which will mark the end of easy mOney at least for awhile.
Yeah, it is said that bond traders have I Q s10 points higher than stock traders, on the average.
Agreed. Not the tipping point, but a short term, few month trend reversal is in the works. The tipping point will come when the inflationary cycle rears its head again and drives the PMs and other commodities up a couple hundred percent starting later in the year (late summer to fall appx). that’s going to put the nail in the coffin. Gas at 6.00. Gold at 3,000, SIlver at 120, Oil at 200. I suspect these prices will be seen in 2013, but not before we drop down to appx Gas 2.50, Gold 1250, Silver 21, Oil 80.
FC
agreud!
No disrespect, but why not now? Could it be perhaps because YOU are not positioned for it?
Well if Greece defaults and you get a Lehman type credit events then there’s your tipping point. Real clusterfuck over in Euroland.
Has everyone forgotten that Russia defaulted back in the late 90’s? Short-term panic ensued but everything was back on track relatively soon.
I think we needed some time down….I guess 1243ish would be the target for solid support…which would be about a 10% correction most of us anticipated.
With that we’d still be firmly in an uptrend…but who knows maybe we get a wink and a nod at the next bernanke speech.
You fuckers are throwing Bud Light cans at the freezer trying to make popsicles from vodka while tornadoes are flicking your home across the wastelands and raining hail upon your person. Guess what, sell your stocks at the lows and then you’re dead.
The banks were being torn to shreds because of the SIFI (how apropos) requirements threatening them to re-capitalize. The way the fucked up Fed/government sees it, it’s better to suck money out of the system rather than regulate the problems that caused the collapse. LOL. Fortunately, they may only have to put aside 2.2-2.5% instead of the proposed 3%. I’m using this slight of hand market downturn to snatch some low hanging stocks from weak limbs that hold them.
as corrections play out apathy turns to annoyance turns to anxiety turns to … excitement at the opportunity.
we are setting up to have some really attractive places to throw money, folks. 🙂
the ppt is a good thing. I hedged up a bit when it went overbought with the S&P at 1340 a couple weeks ago and unloaded 1/2 of them laswt week and 1/2 today.
banked a little bit of money and shorted some levered bear ETFs against it today. Still experienced a notable drawdown in all of this, but… it helps. 🙂
apathy: check. annoyance: not yet. anxiety: 15% lower excitement: ?
The Stock Market has become a joke over the last couple of years. From the NYSE giving many firms a free reign at insider trading by allowing High Frequency Traders to set up servers on site so that they are getting the data milli seconds ahead of everyone else, giving them a small but very profitable edge to the SEC allowing High Frequency program traders to place and than immediately cancel huge orders as a strategy. On top of this you have the Federal Reserve manipulating the market likes it’s their own life size monopoly game. Is it any wonder why so many people have given up trading?
And you think China, or Hong Kong, or Germany, or Russia’s market is not manipulated?
Odd how it took so long for so many people to realize it.
everyone is saying stocks dropped for 6 straight weeks, but that’s a slight exageration as the russel is only down 2 straight weeks. But either way, we should bounce. Should buy before Mr Market realizes the businesses are worth more than he was selling it for.
Ghadafi needs to be killed this weekend.
we need for the price of oil to come down but not secondary to decresed demand.
we failed to increase the output via OPEC fiasco. Killing the fucker is the only choice.
Hoping another human being dies so your 25 shares short oil become profitable? Or so you don’t have to pay as much to fill up your new vehicle that you financed for the next 8 years? You are a prime example of why are nation is crumbling. Ask yourself this, is his death important enough for you to send your son or daughter over there to kill him?
Disclaimer: I will not be 25 for two more weeks, and have yet to make a million in the market (read: I’m just babbling, and in no way, shape, or form would I ever pretend to be in a position to offer up financial advice to the fly).
BUT, having seen two bulge bracket firms get “long as fuck” OTC USD currency calls earlier this week, I’m starting to wonder wether or not the big money is counting on the bernanke to keep the machine greased. It’s not that hard to run a regression and see the correlation between the dollar and equities. Without the Bernanke blowing coke off his money printing machines, does the fly see equities continuing to rally? Or does the fly see US equities acting in the same manner that the Japanese markets have over the past decade or so?
Of course the Bernank will continue the cocaine. However, first things have to get bad enough that people will beg for QE 3. Bad enough so that Clowngress will raise the debt ceiling. This is needed so that plenty of money can be spent bailing out the Bernank’s friends at the TBTF banks– if they should ever come close to sending the economy over a cliff again, like they did in 2008, with their gambling losses.
The question is: How low does the Dow have to go before Clowngress and the Tea Party and everybody else says Uncle.
I vote Dow below 11K will spur the Bernank into action with QE3
Check this out:
Swiss Politician Lukas Reimann: Swiss People Oppose, IMF, World Bank and The Bilderberg Group!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8iSSrCTFmUc
cramer, just mentioned nat gas, hummmm.
natty has been inching up all week
Seasonal, only seasonal. /NG tends to make a good move from later parts of May to mid June. By July it will again start to go down.
Last summer I took alot of sh*t for calling A bounce to dow 12k, and a euro bounce to 1.40. The thing I learned is
You CANNOT win an argument with the xero hedge crowd. If the market goes up, every tick is claimed to be manipulation. If it goes down, they claim to be geniuses.
If we went to dow 30k , or dow 1k, they are set to say ” I told you so”.
Right here i’m seeing a move to Dow 13300 by late august. WITHOUT QE3
Look at the divergent strength in emerging market dividend stocks — DEM.
With the multi month rally in the yuan, there should have been a much harder china crash by now. It never happened, and is not likely.
Emerging markets lead the Dow more than Greek “riot dogs” , and the “elliot waves” they shoot while barking at you.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riot_dog
Took a lot of crap from who? I suspect the geniuses on the yahoo boards where your type are spawned. I read zero hedge from time to time and rarely if ever have I seen specific market calls. They do cry manipulation at times but in case you are not aware, your government IS a manipulator (please wake up). Take your arrogant calls back to the yahoo boards where they are sure to be impressed by your market information. Oh yes, pull the trigger.
There is no proof of the fed buying stocks in 2 years
You cant show me ONE transaction , or stock share, that has ever been traced to the fed. Why is that?
My view–
Anyone who falsely claims fed manipulation , without proof, should get a knock at the door from the feds.
You should not be allowed to yell “fire” in a crowded theater without proof. Period.
Of course there is no proof that the Fed bought stocks, that’s why its urban legend. My view: they are active in the futures market.
I can’t believe I said you can’t argue with zero hedge fans
And I then I proceeded to get in a pissing contest with zero hedge fans.
I’m like that guy in memento.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6DxaxuUJXQ&feature=related
I really wish you would kill yourself.
China’s stock market is possibly controlled by government even more than ours is.
But this DEM, may be something there. Don’t know.
The decline could indeed end whenever Clowngress raises the debt ceiling for the Bernanke, although I’d be really surprised to see Dow 13,300 by late August myself.
you will be hosed unless you understand Jake Gint
even he is laying low
This is not rocket science folks, just look at the election year cycle if you want to “see the future”…Nanke, Obama and Geithner have no impact on the market other than a cursory glance every now and then…
Of course there are plenty of Obama supporters on this site. Traders are a natural fit with Obama. He told us to buy the stock market in March 2009. Then a week ago he said the economy had been hit by a truck, was facing headwinds etc. etc. Easy to understand that as “Go short, Young Man.”
Although Obama isn’t perfect, he is certainly no worse than the other major party’s politicians. And he’s a darn good investing advisor.
Obama is the worst President since Bush
And Bush was the worst President since Washington.
**Correction**
Carter was the worst since Washington. Bush jr was the worst since Carter.
Nah, LBJ, Wilson or FDR did more damage to this country than Bush. Though Bush and Obama would certainly be in the top 5 with those historical idiot socialists.
Bush was a great president
Golden sacks people donated more campaign $ to Obama than any other except Univ. of California system. And they have 100K more employees.
can I play with madness:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXE2CddX5Qs
Gov’t now says that formaldehyde and styrene cause cancer.
Does this mean we can all sue our 7th grade biology teachers for forcing us to disect frogs?
Cadavers are in deep s;hit!
We will bounce soon. We are most likely in a bear market. The dollar will likely stengthen as the fed has run out of silver bullets, and we will enter another deflationary event. My guess is the SnP gets down to appx 950 over the next three to four months. It will however, have some tasty bounces that keep the likes of the perma bulls on board, just as the two year rally kept the perma bears guessing at a top.
I’m a perma nothing. I play the cycles and the odds as they present themselves. I rode the PMs from SLV 12 and change and GLD 85ish. I sold when Silver hit 47 and the Chinese were declaring the death of the dollar on April 25th. I was then in cash for three weeks before buying SDS, DUG and SLV OCT 32 puts. Also some EUO. I’ve put all of my moves on various blogs from Smart Money Tracker to Expected Returns to Jake’s little corner of IBC. Finished ’10 up over 70%, and am up 16% in ’11.
Fly, you’ll shift gears. My tactic is to sell any meaningful rallies on swing reversals. Set stops above the pivots and limit risk. If I’m wrong, my losses will be minimal. If right, my gains will be notable.
The trend has shifted from an inflationary/weak dollar market to a deflationary/strong dollar market. It will last a few months, until the FED starts running the presses again. Then the PMs will again shine.
fc
I’m wit ya on dat
1250 was the March low and is the 200 SMA. An irresistible magnet; what is so hard about seeing that??
Exactly, but after a bounce that sends the bears into hiding, 1250 will fall, as well.
Agreed. Sell the rallies until it doesn’t work anymore. Might be 1250, 1130, 980? Who knows I’ll let the market tell me what to do.
Wait for something fundamental to change that ruins the thesis, that’s your bottom.
I always consider systemic liquidity…
Is liquidity flowing and increasing? If so it’s likely bullish for risk assets.
Is liquidity contracting? If so it’s likely bearish for risk assets.
Looks like I am an investor and not a trader for as long as it takes the market to rally. I was mostly in cash but got back in heavily at what I thought was a dip and I was wrong. The dip was a ledge….
October 1929 – NY Investment News: “Stock Market Crisis is Over!”
This game is fixed – the forked-tongue belly walkers cannot be trusted
Wonder what the PPT is registering after fridays close?
Why don’t these supposedly astute traders see that quantitative easing and money printing
is GOOD for the USA?
It devalues our debt, jacks up the stock market and solidifies the pension funds, makes money
available for business, helps rectify the housing situation, and fucks the Chinee.
I see ZERO downside.
Indued!… But Sarah Palin and the neanderthal Tea Partiers say the Bernanke must “cease and desist” with QE as we should be running our monetary policy for the benefit of China not the US citizenry. Sad part is the brainwashed numbskull crowd that spends their time watching Glen Beck and reading Zerohedge are actually now begging for a deflationary collapse as if they think that will be good for them LOL!
Your lack of downside foresight would have failed you out of first year Money & Banking.
Ask the British — the last Emperors — what fileting their own currency and fucking their debtors did for their standard of living.
Honestly, there should be a short quiz before one is able to post here.
“Helps rectify the housing situation??” Holy shit.
___________
The end of QE will be a good thing. All that liquidity from QE1&2 is still going to be out there sloshing around. The fuckers who sucked up QE will not be able to accumulate any more. They will have to consider trading some of it out of their accounts.
according to james altucher qe2 has not hit the mkt yet, and will push us higher,
were’s bullish on all of this?
Making lots of money. Thanks for asking.
was just askin your thoughts, not trying to be a smart ass,
Lol – I wasn’t being a smartass.
Honestly, everyone around here is so dramatic. My gosh, we are in a stock market correction. OMG! This happens all the time. Remember last summer?
Everyone calling for the end of civilization due to high debt or the end of QE2 are nuts. Moments like these are why people lose in stocks… They get far too dramatic.
If you are a long term investor, what’s the big deal? Ever hear of dollar cost averaging?
If you are a short term trader (As I believe most are around here), go long, go short, screw a goat. What’s it matter?
Personally, I enjoy finding trends that are going to play out regardless of QE or no QE and also try to avoid decapitation.
Good luck
Uptrend not working – HFT algo problems – Stack overflow: 0×0B0B0B0B
limit order @ 37.60.for AAPL, and GS @ 13.20 laugh all you want and watch me get filled by labor day.
Don’t be stupid! You’re gonna lose money at those high levels!
your post is the definition of retarded
Approaching post time at the Belmont. Who ya got? I dropped a Jackson on Master of the Hounds while the lads and I get serious with Guinness.
I wish you fuckers would quit trying to shake me out.
Yes, blatantly stolen. But since arch is MIA his legacy must endure.
Test
Did it work?
Keyboard=Affirmative
Gravatar=Negative
Not 1st but ….
I am 100th!
WARNING
Charts, fundamentals, analyzing balance sheets, P&L’s, forward looking statements, and even crack spreads, are becoming more and more useless in deciding where and in what to invest.
The underlying and very real crisis just beginning to rear its ugly head is one of confidence. Without it, our house of cards monopoly money system (backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government LOL) is pretty much without any redeeming quality or absolute worth.
People are starting to figure this out and you can see it in the gradual but steady erosion in consumer confidence across many methods of measurement. Once that confidence level reaches a certain point (low enough) people will head for the exits “en masse”, taking all they can carry with them from bank accounts, stocks, 401’s, safe deposit boxes, etc. Compared to what will happen here, the recent “run” on Greek banks, kept at a nicely low profile btw, will be like looking at a candle and a hydrogen bomb.
Confidence people. Confidence. More and more people are figuring out how bad we have been hosed. It will reach a critical mass at some point as witnessed by the comment below lifted from Amazon.com regarding this book. Reckless Endangerment.
“Stephen Friedman, former CEO of Goldman Sachs was a director of Fannie Mae when the directors improperly allowed company executives to set earnings targets that they could meet. Federal investigators concluded that “As a direct result, senior management reaped ongoing and extensive financial rewards through accounting manipulation.” Johnson was then inducted to the board of Goldman Sachs – when Hank Paulson became CEO – and promptly made chair of the compensation committee. He dispensed some of the richest paychecks on Wall Street and these became the norm as other firms played catch-up. In fact, Johnson chaired the compensation committees of every board he sat on.
Angelo Mozilo, founder and CEO of Countrywide, was a good friend of Johnson’s and used his methods to grow the cancer that was Countrywide. The company made it a policy to give sweetheart loans to persons in power – these VIP loans were informally known as Friends of Angelo loans. Richard Holbrooke got such a loan. So did Senators Chris Dodd, Kent Conrad and Barbara Boxer. So did Donna Shalala, former head of Health and Human Services and Alfonso Jackson, secretary of HUD. And Countrywide hired sons and daughters and relatives of the influential and made sure that they were not fired during mass layoffs. Do you think it is possible, just barely possible, that these policies are what enabled that tumor to grow so large without surgery even being considered? “
Lol. You post the same stuff about Reckless Endangerment I do and get thumbs up.
Guess the Obamabots don’t read for content?
_______
Team work my good sir.
I really do think that the confidence level of Joe Consumer is the last straw. The one that will break the camels back.
If the confidence level, or more so the lack thereof reaches critical mass, we will go to deflation/depression in the matter of a weeks time. At that point the Fed can bring out QE25 for all I care and it won’t matter. People have no trust in their elected officials (both parties) to do the right thing and put their own self interest in the back seat.
Kind of fascinating to think that we are living through times that will be written about in history books and financial tomes for years to come. We are not done making history with this event yet. Not by a long shot.
I’ll be surprised if your timing is right, but agree with the direction.